Every year, carmakers wait nervously for a report from analyst John Murphy, one of the best prognosticators in the automotive industry. It used to be called the “Car Wars” report, and now it’s the Murphy Automotive Product Pipeline. This is an independent, thoughtful, and typically clairvoyant view of what could happen. This year’s report is an absolute bombshell, noting both that EV adoption is going to flatline and that automakers caught up in EV hype are likely to suffer or maybe even vanish.
The Morning Dump is going to have a bleak note to it if you’ve thought electric cars are the future of American propulsion. Instead, according to Murphy, we’re in for a long period where hybrids are not a bridge, but a “durable solution.” I reluctantly agree. One of Murphy’s charts is about brand survival, and it’s not as likely that Volkswagen is going to be one of those as the company faces down difficult cuts. Nissan is also a company a bit on the bubble, which is bringing back the ghost of CEOs past.
I also think if you’re an EV person, the news that Texas is likely to take over the car market in the United States is also maybe bad news (as a native Texan, I am less bothered by this).
Murphy Thinks Electric Cars Peaked In 2025 And Aren’t Coming Back Soon
You ready for it? Here it is:
Via the new report from Murphy Automotive Partners, this simple chart pretty much knocked me off my chair when I saw it. Not because I think Murphy and his associates are wrong. They probably are not. It’s just such a bold repudiation of the last few years of hype that it feels almost dangerous to say it out loud.
Through MY2027–31e we expect the ICE powertrain to lose share to Hybrids as they represent a steadily larger share of
launches. Conversely, pure EVs are likely to make little headway with only a partial recovery from MY2026 lows, but still below peak 8% penetration. This is far lower than the industry expected even up until recently, and the inflection many investors underwrote has been pushed well beyond this study’s window, especially for mass market. We would go
further, hybrids are not a transition to pure EVs, but where the industry will find the right practical solution for
consumers, justifiable economics, and potentially for the environment.
This is absolutely wild stuff. What the MAPP is arguing is that we’re not experiencing a little stumble this year due to a change of politics and policy, but a long-term and durable abandoning of full electrification that sees the move towards hybrids as inevitable and the EV market as something of a consistent but flat alternative. In this view, electric cars aren’t gathering many new converts but, instead, recycling a lot of the same customers.
I’d like to point out that even two years ago, groups like S&P Global Mobility were treating electrification as an inevitability in their forecasts of powertrain mix:
As we edge closer to 2030, hybrid electric vehicle and BEV powertrain are likely to steer the future of automotive industry trends in North America. Despite more rapid electrification in other regions, North America’s production trails slightly, at just between 9% and 10% for BEVs and fuel cell vehicles. However, projections suggest a significant leap, with 44% of vehicles forecasted to be BEVs or fuel cell car models by the decade’s end.
It was this kind of analysis that felt wrong to me, and led me to first declare in 2023 that 2024 was going to be the “Year of the Hybrid” and then, last year, to declare this the “Decade of the Hybrid.” There simply weren’t enough customers and, unlike in China and Norway, the overall governmental and societal push ran out of steam too early. While politics is a part of this, I do think that the economics and buyer interest are the far bigger reasons, or as Murphy’s report says:
Pure electric vehicle programs have been deferred, re-scoped, or canceled, while hybrids have moved from hedge to headline. The economics are the key driver. Hybrids carry relative pricing power and healthy variable margins, while most pure EVs still lose money at the unit level. Crucially, those advantages look more structural than transitional. Furthermore, the practical use case for most Americans leans heavily towards traditional hybrids.
I cannot fault that logic, which is why so many brands that were recently invested in EV programs have either walked them back or, for the American market at least, entirely abandoned them. It’s possible that environmental concerns, political shifts, and higher gas prices might help full BEVs rise a little faster than forecast, but there simply aren’t going to be enough cars or customers.
On one hand, this does kind of suck. I love hybrids, and bought one, but there are plenty of consumers who would probably do well with an EV if there were more affordable options. The hype cycle caused automakers to overpromise, over-invest and under-deliver in terms of performance and pricing. Not that many automakers ended up making a better, more affordable EV than a Model 3, and by the time they did, they realized there just weren’t that many customers, even with $7,500 on the hood. For American competitiveness in the global market, where Chinese EVs dominate, it ain’t great. I still think that if the industry and those who covered it were more realistic, we could have gotten a future where hybrids and EVs could have grown together, as opposed to one where a single powertrain has to dominate.
Eventually, EVs will catch up, but it’s going to probably be way out in the future.
The other portion of this report, which is subtitled “Survival of the Freshest,” is that the EV “head-fake” caused many brands that weren’t Toyota to be forced to delay the redesign of key models (having expected to replace them with EVs) and now the market is about to become very old:
“The next five years aren’t about who has the most hyped concept, they’re about who actually shows up with the freshest product portfolio after the worst drought in history,” said John Murphy, Founder of Murphy Automotive Partners. “Some of the most familiar names in this industry are closer to the edge than the market realizes. The MAPP is how you see it coming.”
That’s a great sales pitch, and the media preview of the report shows which brands are in trouble, but the only brand named is Toyota (at the top, also the automaker with the most hybrids). There are seven brands in trouble in the United States, and I’ve got some guesses as to which ones those are.
Volkswagen Wants To Cut 100,000 Jobs, Might Not Be Able To
Does anyone know who this guy is? He might be retired by now, but I’d love to talk to him given that he’s sort of the mascot for Volkswagen’s production woes. Here’s another stat, this time from Bloomberg, that should tell you what’s going on in Wolfsburg: Volkswagen employs 628,893 people compared to 383,853 for Toyota. Last year, Toyota sold roughly 11 million cars across its brands globally, compared to just under 9 million for Volkswagen. That’s an extra 250,000 employees to sell fewer than 2 million cars.
The math doesn’t work, and Volkswagen announced a plan to cut 100,000 jobs and four plants. This isn’t really a surprise, given everything, but it’s not great, and VW’s powerful union has something to say about it, especially because of this:
Major strategic decisions at VW need approval from its supervisory board, where labor representatives normally hold half the seats. Currently, they occupy a majority after independent board member Susanne Wiegand didn’t stand for reelection.
According to that Bloomberg report, VW’s labor union is pushing back and can continue to do so. At the same time, VW’s union understands the company needs to survive, so cuts are certainly coming and coming fast.
Oh, Shut Up, Carlos Ghosn
This is a little bit my fault, because last week it was too amusing to not write the headline “Nissan’s Shareholder Meeting Was So Bad That Someone Nominated Fugitive Carlos Ghosn To Run The Company Again.” It’s kinda funny! It’s also not serious, because Ghosn would be a terrible leader of the company.
Unfortunately, saying Ghosn’s name means that a bunch of reporters, including Hans Greimel, were given an excuse to call him, so we have to listen to this nonsense:
“They say bring back what you had before. We want to come back to the golden age of Nissan. It lasted 18 years. It went very well,” Ghosn said. “Common sense speaks. If there is somebody who can fix it, it is somebody with my profile. Obviously, I mean, I’ve done it before.”
I think Ghosn did a good job, but he didn’t do a great job in the end, and a lot of the products he was responsible for were (though we love them) kind of mid. He was smart enough to see the EV wave coming, but absolutely unable to adjust when Tesla showed up and demonstrated the right way to do an electric car. Ghosn had plenty of business sense, but not enough product sense.
At least Ghosn here is reasonable enough to understand that it’s probably not happening, while also insisting he’d be able to save the company.
Texas Might Overtake California As The Biggest Car Market Soon
As a native Texan, I am not surprised that Texas might soon overtake California as the biggest car market. In general, my view is that if California wanted more people, it would invest more in making the state affordable to live in, including making simply having a place to live possible for more people. The alternative plan, as seen in Texas, is a mix of higher density development in historically low-density areas (Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and somewhat Dallas) for more affluent people, and a bunch of crappy, low-quality suburban housing for everyone else. This makes for increasingly fun cities and pretty miserable traffic.
Again, from Automotive News, this has an impact on the car market:
Since 2019, California’s share of U.S. retail light-vehicle sales has been dwindling, to 11.4 percent this year from 12.5 percent, according to JD Power. Texas, meanwhile, has trended in the opposite direction, climbing to 10.8 percent today from 9.3 percent seven years ago. Less than 1 percentage point now separates the states.
Texas already has become the nation’s leader in consumer spending on new vehicles, as Texans favor pricier pickups, JD Power found.
If these trends persist, Texas will become the nation’s new automotive “center of gravity,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at JD Power and the report’s author.
“California is the place where a lot of new ideas are sort of tried out, whereas Texas is a place where trucks and SUVs win,” Jominy said. “Texas is sort of the prototype of the typical American consumer these days.”
Texas forever.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Well, this is timely. It’s “A Slow Dance” from post-rock band Explosions in the Sky as featured on the Friday Night Lights movie soundtrack.
The Big Question
Name the seven brands that Murphy thinks might not survive the decade.
Top photo: MAPP/Tesla
Another complicating factor that I think may work out in the long run, is if and when the US gets affordable, practical E-REVs with 60-100 miles battery range + range extender/generator.
In my opinion, an E-REV is an EV, at least most of the time for most users. The small, lower cost battery can easily be topped off over night in most instances with just a common 120v level-1 charge cable, making them a pragmatic solution for many who can only have one vehicle in the stable.
Imagine a Ranger/Maverick E-rev with 80/500 mile range or a Rav4/CX50 E-REV, or a even small Hyundai/Kia sedans and CUVs all with similar battery/total range.
I think they’d all be great sellers, but we just don’t have them in the US.
We need practical E-REVs starting in the low 30s. Right now, I think it’s only the SCOUTs that are on the horizon, and the SCOUT E-REVs are way too big and way too much for most. Not everyone is looking for an off-road beast, and they’re not needed for a daily commute.
E-REVs are a great solution for the US where 120v is the only at-home charge option.
As a former Volt owner, I can endorse this message. I know it complicates the drive train significantly, but it’s not like this is a magic tech no one can figure out, and it makes so much sense for like 90% of all vehicle owners.
I think the Volt may have had an extra-complicated drivertrain, where the latest E-REVs are a bit simpler with no mechanical coupling between the ICE and the wheels. I think the improvements in motor, ICE and generator designs allow an E-REV running a generator powering an electric motor to he efficient enough to justify keeping it simple, especially if the ICE/generator is only in play for the occasional use.
My daughter drives a PHEV Escape . It gets about 30-40 all battery range. She tops it off every night in the garage and her commute is just at the max battery range. She hardly ever needs to run the gas engine and when it does run, it’s only for the last few miles. Once the battery is depleted, the escape goes from EV to a kick-ass hybrid getting 40+ MPG in the city and low 30s on the highway depending on speed.
The US needs E_REVs, but even a well designed PHEV like the Escape or Rav4 PHEV would be a big help.
Pure EVs make sense for like 90% of vehicle owners…
It’s great until you try to engineer it. Then you’re doing a turducken of powertrains. IF the engineers can package it all well, then the product can be good for users, but I’d be highly concerned about longterm service costs. – Engineer who had to deal with packaging issues on an erev
Still the smaller battery in the E_REV should make space for the ICE/generator, as well as greatly reducing the costs.
I’m not an automotive engineer, but I think if you plan out the e-rev from day-1 to be an e-rev, you can find space for the ice/generator and it’s cooling/fuel/exhaust needs as well as space for the smaller batter and electric drive. At least there’s no complicated transmission to deal with.
..all I ask is you make room for a spare tire, and for god’s sake, skip the electronic door handles and touch screen controls 🙂
EREVs are not a great solution. Making the generator not able to run the wheels results in a lot of losses. It also makes them much more expensive An EREV needs much larger motors than a PHEV which adds significantly to the cost and weight. The fact that the starter/generator is divorced from the traction motor means that a EREV is much more complex and expensive to produce and also adds weight. Finally the larger battery that most EREVs propose also adds weight and cost.
Here is a study done by CA from the first crop of PHEVs and the sole EREV that shows the diminishing returns of larger batteries. Doubling the EV range from ~20 mi (Fords) to ~40 mi Volts does roughly double the percentage of EV miles driven. Meanwhile doubling from the Volt’s 40 mi to the i3 REX’s ~80 mi range only increases the utilization rate by ~20% instead of the ~100% increase from doubling from 20 to 40. It looks even worse when you look at total EV miles driven where those Volt owners drove more total miles in EV mode than the i3 REX drivers.
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-01/appendix_g_pev_in_use_and_charging_data_analysis_ac.pdf
The average consumer isn’t surprised to see this. The industry analysists, automotive CEOs, and very vocal early adaptors that felt they could push BEVs on the general public forgot to consider one thing – the voice of the customer. Most average consumers said they wanted the focus to be on hybrids because the charging infrastructure and battery technology wasn’t ready for the masses. In the end, the old adage remains true – the customer is always right. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled BEVs exist and continue to get better, and I’ll even wager that we WILL be almost full BEV eventually. 8% of market share is still a lot of cars. I hope automotive companies continue to make a profit meeting the market demand. Undoubtedly this will be a business study case for years to come.
7 Car Brands likely to be gone?
Lancia
DS
Abarth
Infiniti
Polestar
Maserati
And while I don’t have anything to base it on, I gotta wonder is Aston Martin has the funds to be building their own everything in low volume and still be around int he next 5. But they have already survived what 7 or so bankruptcies? So maybe they have it all figured out now?
If you’re going to count brands without US presence, you could probably double the number with Chinese brands alone. They’re just starting to go though a major shakeout and the lost brands would be less like Studebaker and more Haynes-Apperson.
My work buddy’s wife went back to gas. After leasing two Leafs the dealership quoted her a go-away price on the new model and then offered her a very good deal on a nicely loaded Kicks. He and I both think they were sick of her charging at their dealership (which is a block from their apartment and a mile from the rest of “auto row”).
I don’t doubt the dealer thing but leasing companies are taking a hit and not as much free money to soften the blow at the front and becoming extremely regional. In many cases now it’s cheaper to buy a bev then lease. Especially with cheap financing offers and discounts. But there doesn’t appear to be much room on the new leaf maybe a few $k. The leaf she returned will maybe get $14k wholesale at the very high end if they are lucky with a slightly hotter used bev market then it has been. Off lease leafs were retailing for about $14k just a few months ago.
TBQ: Rivian, Lucid, Chrysler, Buick, Jaguar, Mitsubishi, and VinFast
Out of curiosity, what did the 2024 version of ‘the MAPP’ project for powertrain mix through 2031? I’d be careful crowing about the clarity of my crystal ball if I was Mr. Murphy, unless he was not part of the groupthink back then, either.
For the record, I do think that hybrids are viable long-term as a powertrain solution that makes a lot of sense for a lot of customers in the US – and coupled with advances in the federal Renewable Fuel Standard is a fully viable alternative to full electrification from a transportation decarbonization perspective, too.
TBQ:
I’m ranking these from most certain to die to least certain.
Maserati
Alfa Romeo
Lucid
Chrysler
Mitsubishi
Rivian
Nissan
So we should expect Tesla’s P/E ratio to more closely follow its peers, surely?
They sold 589K cars in the US last year, which is less than Subaru, almost tied with VW, and a little ahead of Mazda and BMW. So, about the same value?
Why would you not count the additional 1.1 million cars Tesla sold in other parts of the world? As with many things automotive, US sales are NOT the majority of workdwide sales, merely one of the largest single outlets.
I’m not saying the stock is fairly valued but to just leave out 2/3rd of a company’s sales total is not correct. Stocks of all of these companies are based on their worldwide footprint and more importantly, expected future performance, not just US sales.
Honestly, because I was lazy and I couldn’t find a list of automakers by total volume that included Tesla. Possibly they’re not in the top 10.
They aren’t in the top 10 when all automakers are considered (1.6 million vehicle sales last year), but they certainly are when EVs are separated out. That’s a large part of their enterprise value that the others you mention don’t have with the obvious fact that those 1.1 million of their vehicles sold in other parts of the world show that there ARE in fact plenty of people interested in EVs and that the world is far bigger than just the U.S., irrespective of what some people would have one believe.
Ah, Texas. The only state dumb enough to commit treason because they couldn’t tell the difference between human beings and farm equipment twice.
I look forward to an eternal future of personal monster trucks. We deserve it.
I love that in this current election cycle Texans get to choose between:
1). An adulterous criminal alcoholic grifter who wants to take your money and give it to the Epstein class
Or
2). A nice man who wants to help people with centrist policies
And it’s somehow a toss up that’s leaning towards the adulterous criminal alcoholic grifter. What a…special place.
They don’t “get to’. They “chose to” choose between those two. Baffling. Or perhaps not.
As likely many people experience, I have a seemingly large contingent of Texans living in my area, most of whom keep going on about how great a place it is. Yet none of them seem to be in any rush to ever return to this nirvana.
I also have a seemingly similar contingent of Ohioans living in my area, most of whom will readily mention where they hail from, yet they don’t talk about it being a great place and they also stay put here.
If it makes you feel better, pretty much every house in my neighborhood that was purchased in the past 6-12 months seems to be California expats. Most are Karen’s that cannot fathom that parking on the street in the general vicinity of there new house is legal. I feel like they will do well in an HOA though.
Give it another 12 months and you will see the local populace complaining about how the Californians are driving up housing prices locally. Those locals will complain all day long about it UNTIL it comes time to sell their own house and then the last thing they will do is sell their house to another local at a “fair” price, they will take every CA dollar they can, thus perpetuating the cycle of hypocrisy. (Not saying they are wrong to look out for themselves, just would prefer they be less vocal.).
As someone who likes efficient cars, screw Texas becoming the automotive barometer of the country. I mean, just screw Texas in general, TBF. As an entity it’s a net loss for the rest of us, what with the 5th circuit, the board of education, the lawsuits, the attitude, the normalization of state religion, Houston, Dallas, and so on. This behavior should be actively discouraged if we want to suck less as a country.
TBQ: Rivian, Lucid, Slate, Fiat,and Alfa, for sure. Chrysler, Acura, Lincoln, maybe.
OTOH Texas gave us Hardibro. He chooses to live and raise his kid in New York, though, which is probably saying something since Westchester County’s not known for its’ BBQ.
The man retains too much nostalgic fondness for Texas. I think he needs therapy. Not that New York is that much better from a “state with cult-like loyalty” perspective.
All the big states are like that. I’d say it has something to do with it being a very long way to the state line, but New York’s population distribution disproves that.
In my experience, Texas is literally a cult that indoctrinates kids with an insane amount of Texas state history.
I believe that you meant Texas state “history”.
Hey now, they’ve diversified their programming! They’re about to indoctrinate public school students with the Bible as well….
I live in Tennessee and I would trade state governments with Texas right now.
That’s desperation.
Yeah but Kid Rock lives in your state.
Winning bigly. Bigly I say! LOL.
Man I’m paying double what I paid at the tank last year and despite the headlines, this Iran/oil price thing isn’t ending any time soon.
Someone is going to break this ICE market with a killer product and my money is on Toyota. These things can’t all cost >$50k and they can’t present an unfamiliar and buggy driving experience.
Toyota is going to be the company that does that. I thought it would be GM but they are intent on monetizing their UX and can’t seem to launch a product without it being broken.
Glad to see our government represented in the commentariat.
If anyone would follow the entire supply chain, the only real patriotic answer to transportation is full EV. Eventually, once we reclaim the battery title from China.
If we were to build all our own batteries, with US sourced components (no I’m too dumb to know if this is possible) powered by local nuclear plants, we would remove all our dependance on other (hostile) countries to move goods, services, and people around this great land of ours.
It’s really the only answer the puts America first. Which is what most people dissing EVs seems to be all for.
It’s possible, though the smart play would be to shift to sodium-ion chemistry and accept the compromises that brings by upping the charging infrastructure and going big on renewable-fed grid storage to industrial-scale batteries to enable that charging infrastructure buildout.
Unfortunately, it would also take a truly MASSIVE re-investment in rebuilding our manufacturing and extraction sectors, and we’d need to be willing to accept the environmental and social costs that would entail.
While my comment was mostly sarcasm, I agree. We like to bang the Made In American drum as a nation, we are also mostly unwilling to do the actual work to make things in America.
I’m including myself here, I have a cushy desk job, and would not easily pivot to a manufacturing or labor intensive job at this point in my life, nor would my salary expectations. It’s not a comfortable mirror to gaze into.
I see this as that BEVs got more and more people out of ICE and to hybrids. Fleet fuel economy goes up overall and that’s a good thing. Sure, we could look at this as a failure that BEVs aren’t finding better adoption, but the reality is that we (In the US at least) are not ready yet.
If you charge at home and mainly drive in your local community, a BEV is fantastic. If you live anywhere that does not have private, dedicated and reasonably fast charging, it’s a massive pain. I rented a Mach-E one time and I had to waste so much time finding charging. Hotel didn’t have it, tried a few different charging options, some were broken, some were not actually public charging (one was at an apartment building for residents), it was a huge pain. Now do that on trip that exceeds your there-and-back battery range. Charging in this country outside of major metros is really bad. My experience was on the outskirts of Chicago, so it’s not like I was somewhere rural. This is fine if you have a 2nd or 3rd car with an ICE/hybrid backup. If a BEV is your only car, I cannot imagine willingly signing up for such a rotten experience.
Until we have charging infra that mirrors the experience and ubiquity of gas stations and don’t require a MFIng app and account to use them, it’s going to keep on being misery and scuttle adoption. It’s not like gas stations are luxurious, but charging stations are just WORTHLESS. No bathrooms, no windshield wash, not even a cover from the rain. You will get your overpriced, app-dependent charging with ZERO frills or you can just walk home. I think the word enshittified is applicable here.
Range/on-the-road charging/can’t charge at home and the price differential are the two big hurdles. That $7,500 subsidy was a big difference, but not sustainable. And if you can’t charge at home, looking for some place to charge remains a huge PITA.
brands that were recently invested in EV programs have either walked them back or, for the American market at least
And the rest of the world is moving on and needs us less and less with every passing day. This might reverse in 2029, although the pessimist in me thinks this Republic is FUBAR and at best will only slow down its march toward complete irrelevance, even with sane leadership.
This is what I’m thinking. The U.S. market doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and EVs aren’t a mature product segment. EVs and the EV infrastructure will continue to improve. Other countries are going to be friendlier environments for EVs (or will mandate them), and at some point, carmakers will be producing ICE vehicles as throwbacks, if at all.
The pro: everyone American will have the freedom to finance huge, gas guzzling trucks and SUVs they can’t really afford forever!
The con: our vehicles will be completely irrelevant internationally within the next 5-7 years
But yeah, V8 go BRRRRR! SUCK IT, SOY BOYS!
I think they mostly are… already?
Pretty much, yeah
Automakers weren’t just caught in the “hype” some were staring down massive CAFE fines if a majority of the fleet was not electric or hybrid. This is more represrntive of what % people want from these expensive EV’s. I think the Ford and Slate EV’s will increase the %EV though.
It’s hard to buy what doesn’t exist. EVs are not even remotely represented in most product categories in the U.S.. And makers being squeamish does little to represent confidence in their product for the buyers. Two years ago GM was riding high on future EV product. Today that same product exists but they don’t seem supportive of it so why should buyers.
If people just want to spend more on vehicles than the rest of the world, well, I suppose that’s their prerogative, the domestic makers certainly would (continue to) welcome it, but it’s not sustainable. Large pickups may be the single best selling nameplates in the US but still only represent around 15% of the total market (or thereabouts, it’s not like it’s HALF or even remotely close to that no matter what it seems like at times). Lots of opportunity for more nimble companies there, of course at an existensial threat to the companies stuck in their own rut and of course the obvious protectinism. Free market, indeed…/s
It really sounds like VW needs to figure out how to produce what they produce with 200,000 less people rather than just 100,000 less if they want to run with the leader. I read last week that apparently they are looking to reduce their massive product portfolio wordwide in favor of a more streamlined list of offerings, which will likely pay dividends in the cost of designing them, as long as they don’t just remove product that doesn’t make sense to remove while not investing in product that actually might sell (such as removing the regular Golf and Golf wagon in the US but not looking at a VW version of Scout’s “products”.)
The individual in question conclusions are in error. Simply applying the economic principle of the ‘economies of scale’, in regards to the direction the whole of the global automotive manufacturing industry is heading in, which includes hundreds of parts suppliers, will tell you that very soon, a certain type of vehicle with dwindling production numbers will begin to see rising costs, from losing the advantages of mass production. Secondly, as for Texas becoming the peak automobile state, did we just forget what the oil crunch did in regards to personal finances of some? I remind you Texas is a very tiered economy. It’s been called the Walmart economy by some economists, as Walmart at one point was the largest employer. That divergence of the haves and have nots is increasing.
Wal Mart sucks.
So does Texas.
No offense to those who live there though.
BTW I escaped Texas 45 years ago.
Not planning to ever go back. YMMV.
In the near term, the wave of great, affordable, still low miles, still under warranty 2-year EV lease returns that are going to flood the used car market will certainly dent the take rate on new EVs at anywhere near their MSRP. So for the next year or two, I agree new EV sales are going to continue to suffer.
But I see hope:
Maybe 1-2 years from now though things will change.
The d*#khead in the Oval will be replaced, hopefully with someone with an IQ > a turd
The low cost EV tucklets from Ford and SLATE will start shipping in quantity
Low cost from EVs from Hyundai/Kia, Toyota and other brands will hit the market.
Maybe the tax burdens for foreign EVs will get stabilized and reversed to the point we might even start seeing those very good low priced Chinese EVs sneak in
The build-out for level-3 stations continues, and new building codes and such will see more level-1/2 outlets for apartments/condos providing even more at-home charging options
Climate change is continuing to get worse, with EV adaptation being part of slowing the catastrophe. Although common knowledge, perhaps as heat waves and storms continue to increase in amplitude and frequency, maybe, just maybe, the message will get through to the idiots who won’t believe it even after it swims and bites them on the ass! The US market may be hostile to EVs, but not the world market.
I agree with everything but the building codes, the trend is in the other direction toward not requiring parking to be provided at all.
I didn’t know that. I don’t live in CA but I thought I read somewhere that new construction required level 1/2 support of some kind.
If I was an apt/condo builder, I’d make (metered) EV outlets a feature and up-sell it on at least a large portion of my units.
This is the biggest issue with people that are on a certain side of the political spectrum. They just do not care about other human beings who they don’t directly interact with. The flip side is they often care quite deeply about their communities the people they do interact with directly (family, friends, etc)…but these issues simply do not matter to them until they’re on their doorstep.
This was dragged out and held up to the light as honestly as ever during COVID. Most people were willing to wear a mask and get a vaccine in an effort to protect others, but many were giant pissbabies about it because it mildly inconvenienced them and other humans don’t exist in their mind outside of their circles.
Unfortunately millions of people died and the internet was loaded with sob stories about how “I thought COVID didn’t matter, then I gave it to my me maw and she died…I sure regret my prior stance”. The tragic reality is I think this is what’s going to have to happen with climate change as well. I’d much prefer that we just care about our planet and species and agree to do the right thing for the greater good, but unfortunately that’s just not how humanity works…
As you said, COVID put the selfishness and narrow-mindedness of a lot of this country (and other countries) on full display.
The same people see a wildfire in California and say “why would anyone want to live in California”. Another hurricane hits Florida “well duh, that’s what you get in Florida”. But then a flood or tornado in their community and suddenly it’s “we’ve never seen anything like this!” like it isn’t part of a larger trend that’s been developing for years if you aren’t too stupid to shut up and listen for once.
I like my EV, but I loved the hybrid I had before it. Our next vehicle purchase was already guaranteed to be a hybrid, as it would be to replace it family hauler/road trip vehicle, as the EV charging infrastructure in our area is woefully inadequate. If I didn’t have the ability to do L2 charging at home, having an EV in my rural-ish area wouldn’t make sense. Unfortunately, that is true for a fair amount of this country, so I think hybrid will make sense for most people until there is a big shift in EVSE deployment and EV range.
The rest of the world gives great pause when oil shipments don’t.
Stellantis
Mitsubishi
Nissan
VW
Not sure of the rest.
What do those four have in common? They mostly sell bottom-of-the market cars. Cheaper cars. be careful what you wish for.
Trust me, I want Stellantis to thrive. Long live Chrysler!
Based on the findings of the report, I’m guessing Rivian and Lucid in addition to those four
That tracks.
The reason they aren’t taking off is simple. The entire point of EVs is cost savings, using a simple, long-lasting, reliable vehicle that doesn’t ever give the owner problems. But the EVs available are over-teched, enshittified things with constant problems that usually can’t be fixed outside of handing your wallet to a dealership, and a high MSRP because most of them are luxury vehicles. In this economy, average working people have less spare money after bills, and expensive luxury vehicles that emphasize novelty over being A to B transportation are not something this demographic buys.
It is possible to make a brand new EV that makes as much sense as a used ICE Corolla or Camry. The Chinese have many. The problem is that US buyers don’t yet have that option. When the Slate truck comes onto the market, they’ll have something that gets more than halfway there, but it will still appeal only to a small niche.
Slate swung the pendulum. I’d argue it’s a bit too far.
We don’t need electric door handles. Mechanical ones work just fine.
I don’t want this to fall into the world of discount airlines where, once I add a few items: roof, heated mirrors, rear seats, etc… – that I should have just purchased a different vehicle.
I want to get one for my elderly step mother to use in order to replace her 2000 Silverado that burned down, but she absolutely requires AWD for the winters here because of her steep uphill driveway, so until that is available, it’s probably not happening. She needs a truck to do truck stuff, but today’s market is abysmal and thus she does without.
The upcoming Ford EV trucklet may be the ticket. I think they’re planning on offering an AWD variant and even SLATE said it may be ina future product (assuming SLATE has a future). .
Fords products have too much tech bloat and enshittification. I want something that can be fixed outside of a dealership with basic tools. Hoping the Slate is it. And I don’t want it to be a part of Ford’s surveillance hellscape ecosystem.
We’ve 3 recent Fords in the family (25 Mav Hybrid AWD, 25 Mav 2WD, and a 25 Escape PHEV). So far, about a year in, they’ve been fine. There have been some recalls, but they’ve been minor and taken care of either over-the-air or with a quick visit from the mobile dealer tech at home.
A common point on all 3 is that they’re not brand new models. The earlier MAVs had growing pains for sure, and the Escape it at the end of it’s production run.
The moral of the story is maybe watch out for 1st model years, including Ford and Slate and everyone else.
Question for you RE:Slate. I’ve been staring at their configurator for a while, and noticed the Telematics Module is required for battery pre-conditioning.
How important is that? Going to claim complete ignorance here and not know what that does in practice.
I haven’t looked into the specific unit, but at minimum, it means the vehicle’s GPS location can be tracked by 3rd parties and/or government. Similar devices have been federally mandated in new vehicles for over a decade under the guise of “safety”, unfortunately. The degree and type of data collected matters. Lots of new cars are recording your conversations inside!
So kind of like the phones that we all carry with our name and billing address attached to?
Indeed. DARPA’s goal is to have a record of every conversation it can, in a searchable database. Personally, I use an electric velomobile or quadricycle and have a flip phone for when I need it, all my appliances are over 20 years old, and my computers have neither built-in microphones nor webcams. Aside from becoming Amish, it’s almost the best I can do.
No one voted for this crap, and when 3rd parties collect the data, the government considers it as if you “voluntarily” provided it to them, even when you didn’t thanks to the certain provisions of the PATRIOT Act that are still in effect.
Only a matter of time before people collectively tire of this and take matter into their own hands, because neither voting nor the courts are ever going to fix this, even if 99% of the population one day decided they want it fixed.
They won’t (people collectively tiring of this, I mean), just look at the numbers of people that don’t vote.
And now look at the numbers of people actively looking to see if they can achieve citizenship elsewhere as well as actually moving forward if eleigible. Many of the potentially most useful individuals are deciding it’s no longer worth fighting for or that doing so may well be at the risk of their own personal wellbeing and security.
It allows the battery to be warmed up to the best temperature for maximum charging speed. How important that is depends on how often you plan on visiting charging stations. If you will be charging from home the vast majority of the time, not very important. If frequent road trips, especially in the cold time of the year, are part of your life then it is probably pretty important.
Preconditiong matters if you are traveling and charging repeatedly or charging in a VERY cold climate. It uses some energy while moving to get the battery into its prime thermal state to be able to charge at its most efficient rate, in short it can save a lot of time when charging. So it doesn’t really matter when charging overnight at home but does when on a roadtrip or if you are an Uber driver in Chicago during a deep freeze. That was what happened a few years ago and there were all kinds of news stories about how they couldn’t charge from 1% when it was -20 degrees out and the charge too forever – the problem was the drivers didn’t know anything about how the car worked, the car didn’t know it was going to a charger, didn’t precondition, and then had to somehow use the 1% remaining power and plug power to slowly get the battery up to temp to charge faster. When on a roadtrip the car “knows” when you are heading to a charger if you use the Nav system (for example in a Tesla) and let it tell you and route you the most efficient way and number and places and length of charging stops instead of just running it from 100 to zero and then “filling up” – which will take FAR more time than stopping 2-3 times for stops of far shorter duration while provinding the same total number of electrons…
Toyota is going to lead the way. The Lexus Electric ES-350 is going to be a big hit at its price point, and the RX-350 is going to electrify after that, I’m predicting. That will filter down into Camrys and RAV-4s and they’ll sell like crazy.
But you’re right: a regular car, but electric is the formula, not some cheap Nordic interior garbage with a big screen controlling your windshield wipers and air vents.
People who have switched to EV typically don’t want to go back so there’s a critical mass of people who are still going to demand them.
Nah, it’s 75% down to Trump’s ev hostile policy changes.
Trump was making noises along those lines in 2023/2024, even before he took office, and companies started responding by shifting their strategies and product mix.
Shift policies back and EV adoption will respond if there are EVs to buy.
Also, EV’s didn’t really get to be widely available across all market segments and price points. It’s slowly changing. I figure as there are more EVs in more segments with price parity to their ICE/Hybrid competitors, uptake will increase. We are only starting to see EVs hit price parity as well as enter more/most segments. A little bump down due to significant changes in policy doesn’t seem insurmountable.
Not just policy. EV’s have become embroiled in the “culture wars,” and because (brief time with Musk excluded) the regime hates EV’s, their followers tend to hate EV’s.
And even non-regime fans are consuming mis-information and fearing chage.
And even non-regime fans are consuming mis-information and fearing chage.
…thanks to an ever-hostile-to-humanity corporate media.
“Say whatever pays the bills” is the type of journalism that most people seem to consume these days.
It’s not actually down at all. The lower number trends are for years that are either currently happening or haven’t even happened yet. Any data trend is possible when they’re wrong or lying