Every year, carmakers wait nervously for a report from analyst John Murphy, one of the best prognosticators in the automotive industry. It used to be called the “Car Wars” report, and now it’s the Murphy Automotive Product Pipeline. This is an independent, thoughtful, and typically clairvoyant view of what could happen. This year’s report is an absolute bombshell, noting both that EV adoption is going to flatline and that automakers caught up in EV hype are likely to suffer or maybe even vanish.
The Morning Dump is going to have a bleak note to it if you’ve thought electric cars are the future of American propulsion. Instead, according to Murphy, we’re in for a long period where hybrids are not a bridge, but a “durable solution.” I reluctantly agree. One of Murphy’s charts is about brand survival, and it’s not as likely that Volkswagen is going to be one of those as the company faces down difficult cuts. Nissan is also a company a bit on the bubble, which is bringing back the ghost of CEOs past.
I also think if you’re an EV person, the news that Texas is likely to take over the car market in the United States is also maybe bad news (as a native Texan, I am less bothered by this).
Murphy Thinks Electric Cars Peaked In 2025 And Aren’t Coming Back Soon
You ready for it? Here it is:
Via the new report from Murphy Automotive Partners, this simple chart pretty much knocked me off my chair when I saw it. Not because I think Murphy and his associates are wrong. They probably are not. It’s just such a bold repudiation of the last few years of hype that it feels almost dangerous to say it out loud.
Through MY2027–31e we expect the ICE powertrain to lose share to Hybrids as they represent a steadily larger share of
launches. Conversely, pure EVs are likely to make little headway with only a partial recovery from MY2026 lows, but still below peak 8% penetration. This is far lower than the industry expected even up until recently, and the inflection many investors underwrote has been pushed well beyond this study’s window, especially for mass market. We would go
further, hybrids are not a transition to pure EVs, but where the industry will find the right practical solution for
consumers, justifiable economics, and potentially for the environment.
This is absolutely wild stuff. What the MAPP is arguing is that we’re not experiencing a little stumble this year due to a change of politics and policy, but a long-term and durable abandoning of full electrification that sees the move towards hybrids as inevitable and the EV market as something of a consistent but flat alternative. In this view, electric cars aren’t gathering many new converts but, instead, recycling a lot of the same customers.
I’d like to point out that even two years ago, groups like S&P Global Mobility were treating electrification as an inevitability in their forecasts of powertrain mix:
As we edge closer to 2030, hybrid electric vehicle and BEV powertrain are likely to steer the future of automotive industry trends in North America. Despite more rapid electrification in other regions, North America’s production trails slightly, at just between 9% and 10% for BEVs and fuel cell vehicles. However, projections suggest a significant leap, with 44% of vehicles forecasted to be BEVs or fuel cell car models by the decade’s end.
It was this kind of analysis that felt wrong to me, and led me to first declare in 2023 that 2024 was going to be the “Year of the Hybrid” and then, last year, to declare this the “Decade of the Hybrid.” There simply weren’t enough customers and, unlike in China and Norway, the overall governmental and societal push ran out of steam too early. While politics is a part of this, I do think that the economics and buyer interest are the far bigger reasons, or as Murphy’s report says:
Pure electric vehicle programs have been deferred, re-scoped, or canceled, while hybrids have moved from hedge to headline. The economics are the key driver. Hybrids carry relative pricing power and healthy variable margins, while most pure EVs still lose money at the unit level. Crucially, those advantages look more structural than transitional. Furthermore, the practical use case for most Americans leans heavily towards traditional hybrids.
I cannot fault that logic, which is why so many brands that were recently invested in EV programs have either walked them back or, for the American market at least, entirely abandoned them. It’s possible that environmental concerns, political shifts, and higher gas prices might help full BEVs rise a little faster than forecast, but there simply aren’t going to be enough cars or customers.
On one hand, this does kind of suck. I love hybrids, and bought one, but there are plenty of consumers who would probably do well with an EV if there were more affordable options. The hype cycle caused automakers to overpromise, over-invest and under-deliver in terms of performance and pricing. Not that many automakers ended up making a better, more affordable EV than a Model 3, and by the time they did, they realized there just weren’t that many customers, even with $7,500 on the hood. For American competitiveness in the global market, where Chinese EVs dominate, it ain’t great. I still think that if the industry and those who covered it were more realistic, we could have gotten a future where hybrids and EVs could have grown together, as opposed to one where a single powertrain has to dominate.
Eventually, EVs will catch up, but it’s going to probably be way out in the future.
The other portion of this report, which is subtitled “Survival of the Freshest,” is that the EV “head-fake” caused many brands that weren’t Toyota to be forced to delay the redesign of key models (having expected to replace them with EVs) and now the market is about to become very old:
“The next five years aren’t about who has the most hyped concept, they’re about who actually shows up with the freshest product portfolio after the worst drought in history,” said John Murphy, Founder of Murphy Automotive Partners. “Some of the most familiar names in this industry are closer to the edge than the market realizes. The MAPP is how you see it coming.”
That’s a great sales pitch, and the media preview of the report shows which brands are in trouble, but the only brand named is Toyota (at the top, also the automaker with the most hybrids). There are seven brands in trouble in the United States, and I’ve got some guesses as to which ones those are.
Volkswagen Wants To Cut 100,000 Jobs, Might Not Be Able To
Does anyone know who this guy is? He might be retired by now, but I’d love to talk to him given that he’s sort of the mascot for Volkswagen’s production woes. Here’s another stat, this time from Bloomberg, that should tell you what’s going on in Wolfsburg: Volkswagen employs 628,893 people compared to 383,853 for Toyota. Last year, Toyota sold roughly 11 million cars across its brands globally, compared to just under 9 million for Volkswagen. That’s an extra 250,000 employees to sell fewer than 2 million cars.
The math doesn’t work, and Volkswagen announced a plan to cut 100,000 jobs and four plants. This isn’t really a surprise, given everything, but it’s not great, and VW’s powerful union has something to say about it, especially because of this:
Major strategic decisions at VW need approval from its supervisory board, where labor representatives normally hold half the seats. Currently, they occupy a majority after independent board member Susanne Wiegand didn’t stand for reelection.
According to that Bloomberg report, VW’s labor union is pushing back and can continue to do so. At the same time, VW’s union understands the company needs to survive, so cuts are certainly coming and coming fast.
Oh, Shut Up, Carlos Ghosn
This is a little bit my fault, because last week it was too amusing to not write the headline “Nissan’s Shareholder Meeting Was So Bad That Someone Nominated Fugitive Carlos Ghosn To Run The Company Again.” It’s kinda funny! It’s also not serious, because Ghosn would be a terrible leader of the company.
Unfortunately, saying Ghosn’s name means that a bunch of reporters, including Hans Greimel, were given an excuse to call him, so we have to listen to this nonsense:
“They say bring back what you had before. We want to come back to the golden age of Nissan. It lasted 18 years. It went very well,” Ghosn said. “Common sense speaks. If there is somebody who can fix it, it is somebody with my profile. Obviously, I mean, I’ve done it before.”
I think Ghosn did a good job, but he didn’t do a great job in the end, and a lot of the products he was responsible for were (though we love them) kind of mid. He was smart enough to see the EV wave coming, but absolutely unable to adjust when Tesla showed up and demonstrated the right way to do an electric car. Ghosn had plenty of business sense, but not enough product sense.
At least Ghosn here is reasonable enough to understand that it’s probably not happening, while also insisting he’d be able to save the company.
Texas Might Overtake California As The Biggest Car Market Soon
As a native Texan, I am not surprised that Texas might soon overtake California as the biggest car market. In general, my view is that if California wanted more people, it would invest more in making the state affordable to live in, including making simply having a place to live possible for more people. The alternative plan, as seen in Texas, is a mix of higher density development in historically low-density areas (Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and somewhat Dallas) for more affluent people, and a bunch of crappy, low-quality suburban housing for everyone else. This makes for increasingly fun cities and pretty miserable traffic.
Again, from Automotive News, this has an impact on the car market:
Since 2019, California’s share of U.S. retail light-vehicle sales has been dwindling, to 11.4 percent this year from 12.5 percent, according to JD Power. Texas, meanwhile, has trended in the opposite direction, climbing to 10.8 percent today from 9.3 percent seven years ago. Less than 1 percentage point now separates the states.
Texas already has become the nation’s leader in consumer spending on new vehicles, as Texans favor pricier pickups, JD Power found.
If these trends persist, Texas will become the nation’s new automotive “center of gravity,” said Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at JD Power and the report’s author.
“California is the place where a lot of new ideas are sort of tried out, whereas Texas is a place where trucks and SUVs win,” Jominy said. “Texas is sort of the prototype of the typical American consumer these days.”
Texas forever.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Well, this is timely. It’s “A Slow Dance” from post-rock band Explosions in the Sky as featured on the Friday Night Lights movie soundtrack.
The Big Question
Name the seven brands that Murphy thinks might not survive the decade.
Top photo: MAPP/Tesla
The reason i think this projection will be a bit off is because of full self driving. Others are coming, but as far as I know, the best one available is tied to electric cars. I think FSD adaptation will rise as people realize how good it’s gotten, and that will in turn make electric car adaptation rise.
Infiniti, Acura, Mitsubishi, Maserati, Alfa Romeo, Buick, Chrysler
Ironically, I suspect that the best president for getting the US to go to EVs will end up being Trump and not Biden.
Biden tried the carrot of incentives to get Americans into trying EVs. It worked until Trump turned off the incentives.
Trump has gone for the Stick approach. “You say you are ok with having a gasoline powered car? Well, what if you don’t have gasoline!”
You can see a major spike in Hybrid demand since Trump started bombing the Middle East and it shows no sign of slowing down. I don’t think 2026 will show this impact, because many of the early year 2026 buyers had snatched up an EV late in 2025 before the incentives went away. However, I see demand going up quickly now as gasoline prices and availability are still concerning.
I see it as a matter of time before cheap new EVs start flooding the US market as well. Perhaps by a domestic supplier like Slate, Ford and GM or perhaps because you can’t keep Chinese companies out forever.
Once EVs become cheap enough to be secondary vehicles, you will see more and more people get them as a commuter and then, perhaps realize that they can do what they want/need without gasoline.
I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz situation will cause us to run out of fuel. What it will do is cause prices to shoot up once the oil futures market realizes the ample supply it’s been expecting isn’t physically there. At worst, we may have brief localized shortages once the crude oil reserves in the SPR and Cushing, OK run low. I’ve seen estimates ranging from mid-July to late-October for when that happens.
I’ve been watching the delivery estimates for the base color, no options Tesla Model Y trims since this all started late February. I’ve been using that as a rough gauge for how gas prices have impacted EV sales. The estimated delivery windows have gone from 1-3 weeks to 4-8 weeks. We also went from ample numbers of new Model Ys in inventory to zero. Sadly, it looks like Elon’s backing of Trump is paying off for him.
As a 1-year EV owner that’s definitely become a bit of an EV stan, my initial inclination is to look at this skeptically, but I think there’s some truth to the “durable” nature of hybrids, and they’ll definitely be here for a while (with many drivers probably having no clue they own a HEV).
But I still see an inevitable creep toward EVs. I think more smaller and lower cost EVs will hit the market, and with gas prices making people a little more cost senstivite about vehicle running costs I think you’ll see more people shift to EVs. A small percentage may end up hating it (apartment dwellers without a place to plug in at night) but most owners tend to never look back. The depreciation is still a deterrent for new vehicle purchases, but confidence in powertrain reliability and pack longevity should increase as hopefully most older EVs age gracefully (Nissan Leafs and i3s notwithstanding). But who knows, a lot of consumers may just assume the political pushback means that EVs just “don’t work” and never consider them.
Anyway, jury’s still out on how bad depreciaion will hit me, though my vehicle sold so poorly that I paid almost 20% below MSRP anyway, so hopefully that accounts for some of the hit. In the meantime, I’ve enjoyed driving the thing about 14k miles this year for a little over $400 in “fuel” costs.
EVs: This report is very US-centric, and shows that one country is moving backwards while the ROW is moving forward.
And you can’t sell product lines that you cancel due to short-term regulatory conditions.
Meanwhile, the Chinese car market is 3.4X larger than the US market, and the EU car market is still 25% larger than the US market.
So – Whatever.
California vs Texas: There’s a meme going around which has Don Draper and a Marketing Minion in the elevator. The Minion says “I’m worried about you”, while Don responds, “I don’t think of you at all”.
Don is the 4th largest economy on the planet – which is California.
Texas is #8 on a global scale – which is pretty good for a state which prides itself on subjugating women to 2nd class citizenhood.
So – Whatever.
Moral superiority is a palpable stench in these comments…
EV’s have gone from big carrot and some stick to no carrot and mostly stick. The incentives for purchase/lease are mostly gone that made leases really attractive. The massive depreciation is still there. The high gas prices that briefly increased used EV values are lowering again. Most states are penalizing ownership with high registration costs.
Even with all this, I think a used, 2-3 year old, EV is a great buy and darn near perfect for most people who own a home where they can install a charger and use it primarily for commuting, and have another car in the household for longer trip duties. We have an EV and a PHEV, but also 4 other ICE cars in a 4 driver household. The electrified cars get a lot of use and are great for quick trips and errands in addition to their daily commuting duties.
I hope that a lot of those pro-Big Oil and punitive EV taxes get struck down. Gas cars don’t pay their share either. Either make gas cars pay more or EV’s pay the same as the average gas car pays in fuel taxes.
When we got our first EV a few years ago, our thought was it’d be fine as our 2nd car. A Bolt EUV and we’d continue to use our gas cars as our primary vehicle.
I think it was when we drove the Bolt for about a week, and when we drove past our usual gas station that’s when we had our epiphany… we ‘got it’. Our EV very quickly became our go-to primary vehicle for anything in town or that didn’t need AWD or haul/towing.
Pretty sure that for most that get an EV as a supplemental vehicle, like us, it will quickly become their first choice.
Whoof.
Hopefully there’s room for Slate and Telo in that tiny slice.
Some Rivian too!
I worry that Rivian and Lucid will fall to this reality.
Shoot, I’ve been saying this for years. Everyone bet big on EV’s and had they been right they would have been sitting pretty…but it was too much too soon and the world wasn’t ready. I mean specifically the infrastructure, culture, market, and technology hadn’t reached parity with the conventional incumbent. It has to be able to replace what is working now at at least 1:1 for mass market adoption and EV’s just can’t yet. While I grant that accelerating that timeline with the momentum they were building was noble, it wasn’t realistic.
In the US* needs to be added to that. China is eating everyone for lunch and laughing.
Yes, specifically the USDM. That being said, while EV market share is crazy high there, it still worth nothing that the fleet is still only 12% EV. Thats still way higher than here, but its definitely partly looking at who’s buying new cars and who isn’t. There is a new highly upwardly mobile middle class in China right now buying new. Its a very different market than the USDM.
Very true. They’re a great comparison tool, but the sales figures mean nothing without the other info.
The world =/= the US.
I’m sick of Texas.
As long as you don’t mess with it, you’re fine. They’re fine.
The EV projections make me sad because it represents much more than just sales figures. The US was already drifting behind the world, this highlights it and underlines that fact. I love ICE cars, they provide more of a soul than EVs. There’s a mechanical spirit in them. EVs are just better in every way apart from a road trip. Driving 20-25k a year in an EV is life changing. Unfortunately the infrastructure and the willingness of the consumer to try something new seems is not there yet. I would pick a hybrid if I lived in an apartment, or somewhere I couldn’t charge at home.
That being said. My DD will never be ICE again. Even a Camry Hybrid for fuel and maintenance looks expensive after doing the maintenance and fuel calculations. Once I upgrade to an EV with 350-400mi of range there won’t be an issue. Unless I move into an apartment or condo haha. If only there was like a sponsorship, or incentive to offset the costs of installing apartment chargers and maybe the government provides them. What a world that would be right?
Working up to a solid 7% of US sales by 2031 sounds fantastic to me. Yeah, it isn’t like every car is going to be an EV like some places are. But that’s a LOT of EVs!
Even where they’re at now, I got sandwiched between 4 other EVs today on the highway. In my state they’re everywhere. It’s kinda surreal to travel to another state and see almost none.
I’ve been meaning to ask this for several months, and finally remembered… Does anybody know what’s going on with Amazon and their Rivian delivery vans? 6 months ago they were about 95% of the delivery fleet with the remainder being rental vans. Now they seem to be about 1%. Instead of seeing about 10 per day delivering on my street, now it’s roughly once every week or two. This is in urban Chicago so not representative of the country as a whole.
The Amazon delivery van fleet in the Richmond VA area appear to be almost 100% Rivian.
Maybe some of them moved to my area? I started seeing the Rivian delivery vans about two months ago. At first it was a rare sighting, now I see one anytime I drive more than 20 miles.
How many brand does Stellantis have right now? Surely they could lose 7 and still be in the double digits?
The MAPP analysis is for US only. The rest of the world is moving quickly to EVs. There are two big issues for US EV adoption: (1) big road trip range and (2) availability of smaller, cheaper EVs.
On the first issue, your old friend Patrick George said it best a couple of months ago: you need to have 300 mile/500 km range. Anything else doesn’t cut it. When I bought my Equinox EV in early April, the dealer told me that had yet to sell a single new Bolt. Not surprised, as the price difference (here in Canada) between the two was almost negligible and the Equinox EV range is better. The Germans have realised this, and almost every EV model’s new replacement has over 400 miles of range.
On the second issue, everyone selling in the US market went for the more profitable higher-end market, following Tesla’s lead. The small car and truck market were ignored, except for some low-range, obsolete technology models like the Fiat 500e and the electric Minis. Big pick-up trucks didn’t make sense for mass market because of the perceived need for long range and towing. The small EV car and truck markets are exploding everywhere else in the world, led by the Chinese and increasingly the European offerings.
One more potential EV incentive for the US: all the women in my family *hate* gassing up, and they are jealous of my Equinox. “You never have to gas up, so you should take my car to the gas station to fill it for me”. Now imagine if Cadillac developed or licensed a contactless charging system like the Porsche inductive charging pad. “Honey, you won’t ever need to gas up or charge again. Just drive it into the garage.” They won’t be able to keep up with demand.
Definitely here (Europe) the trend is irreversible. Even without the ICE ban we are moving towards that goal fast. Not all countries are Norway (incidentally I am there now in a business trip), but even with the infrastructure hurdles it just makes sense.
Another question is whether this is truly green in the end. I heard recently that in my region (Catalunya) renewable energies only account for 3% of the total mix. So you might not be using dead dinosaurs, but you are still polluting…
Charging EV’s is greener than directly burning the fossil fuel in ICE vehicles. Doing a well to wheel analysis makes that easier to see. It’s easier to control emissions at a large central point than dispersed vehicles. Thermal power plants don’t cycle as much as individual vehicles. So scrubbers work better. Plus the electrical grid is greening up. Installing solar plus storage is cheaper than operating a lot of fossil plants.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for BEV, but the push has to come from all directions, not just the end result that is the car.
One thing I’ve read that makes EVs still desirable even somewhere like where you mention with low renewable usage, is over time power plants can be made more green or replaced/augmented with renewable energy sources making even older EVs more green over their life span. The same cannot be said for ICE vehicles.
about the electricity mix, here’s some nice stats: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/live/fifteen_minutes&ved=2ahUKEwim_bf196yVAxVa5AIHHeSBAMwQFnoECBIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1iROC-jGl82erbla8Qyug0
We have two EVs…not going back…ever. Our ICE vehicle is simply a hobby.
Once you experience the instant torque and crazy acceleration offered by EV, there is no going back.
The real test is when we travel and get an ICE rental…you actually experience the hassle of low torque and poor acceleration. The lack of instant twist was actually harrowing…not to mention how you used to accept poorly maintained and frankly creepy gas stations.
No visits to gas stations and no oil changes. Garage no longer smells like an old gas station service bay.
Current feeling is that “range anxiety” is a social media campaign run by big oil and traditional car dealers. Range anxiety quickly dissipated as we learned a different approach to fueling and trip planning.
The real fun comes when you toss the key to the Hotel valet and they ask if you want it put on the charger…most hotels don’t charge for this…those that do charge it is minimal $20 overnight to top off…good luck finding a tank of gas for $20!
I am happy to swap an additional $40 added to our monthly electric bill in place of $5.00 gallon gas.
So much this. I have an ICE Seadoo that is seemingly determined to remind me of why I dislike small IC engines. And all the things they need to be viable. I have one EV and one ICE vehicle. That ICE vehicle will get replaced with an EV once we’re done with it.
They say that once you go EV, you never go back.And I kinda thought I wouldn’t, either.
Then I kinda did. I grounded the lease on my 2024 HI5 this past weekend. Residual was higher than what new ones go for, and without the tax breaks (we had a pretty stout one in Colorado that now has an MSRP gate so most of it wouldn’t apply to a new one), a new lease costs approximately double what I was paying.
The timing was just terrible. A few months ago, Carmax and Carvana (which I’ve used as a proxy for actual prices because they’re easy to find data) were selling two-year-old 20,000 mile HI5s for $25,000. Now they’re over $30,000. I’m not spending an extra $5k+ because people are nuts.
Maybe as gasoline prices drop and everyone realizes this isn’t going to be like the 1970s, those prices will settle back out. Add in some glut from more lease returns, and there’s a decent chance I’ll buy another EV– but for the time being, there’s a ’95 Miata parked in the same spot of the office lot that used to have a 2024 HI5. I may not be buying a new ICE to replace my leased EV, but I’m also not getting another EV quite yet.
We need a new, bigger oil shock. I think Trumpy is an EV fan in disguise and it makes sense he will start a new war somewhere soon just to speed up EV adoption.
Big oil would like to enter the chat.
I am not surprised at all to see EV adoption will be much slower than initial pie in the sky reports.
Just like if we tried mandating people have to now live in 100 sqft high rises, it would take quite a while to make meaningful progress.
Draconian mandates work much better in China or Europe. The first because China, and the second because of insane taxation schemes.
Hold on, this is a reasonable take, and not just one shitting on America and Americans as being dumb hicks while you (the commenter) and the ROW (rest of the world) are so so clearly smarter and more morally upstanding. This has no place here!
But seriously, the comment sections have become wild. I have 2 TVs as dailies for my wife and I – and on that daily front I ain’t going back. But I have a house I can charge at with cheap electric rates, and I have other gas cars at my disposal for use if I need them like trucks, fun stick shift cars, etc. It’s a unique scenario, but for me it works. I can totally understand why it does not make sense for a large swathe of people!
The mandating and wish casting and forcing down the throat of the consumer that was done by the government and by the media was totally counter productive. I doin’t think they are really ready for mass market prime time adoption in the US yet, but pointing that out you’d be made to feel like a backwards evil big oil sellout creep, or something. Americans by culture do not like being forced into something, and blatant attempts at that tend to backfire.
I think there are going to be a lot of new EV adopters once the leases start coming back. Assuming the used values of EV’s stays depressed (heavy heavy depreciation), they’re going to be a huge value on the used market. I think once they start having wider availability, you’re going to see more people take a shot at EV ownership. Once they see the value of it, a snowball effect for demand might happen.
We got a very cheap EV lease coming to an end soon. We were in that bucket of people snagging cheap leases on Ultium platform vehicles – in our case an EVquinox but there were similar offers on Blazers and Prologues and Lyriqs that were running around the summer of 2024 and went through the cancellation of the tax credits a year later. It was previously noted on this site that those vehicles are starting to come off lease now, and there will be a bit increase in availability of used EVs.
So to your point – lot of people going to be looking at cheap used EVs, and a lot of people going to be in the market for new as their leases are running out. Right now incentives are low because someone dramatically increased the price of gas, but right up to the start of the war the deals were out there and I’m sure they’ll be back soon.
A few months ago by brother returned his leased Kona EV. He got it in ’24 for one of those subsidized too-good-to-be-true lease deasl (12K miles a year, $800 the first month then a little over $200 a month after). Their first EV and once the got it, not going to go back.
They wanted to buy their car after the 2 year lease, but the residual was over $29,000! Hard pass at that price The dealer knew it was high, and said Hyundai would wholesale it as they didn’t want it on their lot either.
Instead of paying wayyyyy too much for their lease buyout, they shopped local dealers and got a brand new 26 Ioniq 5 (medium level trim, 2WD) for only $33K. It had a $43K MSRP. They’re extremely happy with it.
Just an example of lease returns now hitting the market, and new EV prices getting a huge cut from MSRP in order to compete against them. This in outside of New Orleans but I think both gently used and some new EVs are greatly bargains right now.
Because of the way they applied the credit, the residual on the EVquinox is something like $34k, which is roughly the price of a new one with incentives (or a new FWD without incentives). So yeah, we’re not interested in buying it out. But used ones with 12k miles fresh off of lease in the same spec? $26-28k. and unsurprisingly a pretty hot commodity right now.
If gas prices hadn’t cut a lot of the EV incentives GM was offering, I had fully expected we’d replace the EVquinox lease with a new Bolt lease (my wife wants something smaller) but I’m not sure there’s going to be any deals there in the next 2 months.
We picked up our Ioniq 6 this January. It is a 24. Limited AWD top trim with long range battery. A Hyundai CPO. Only 6,000 miles on it.
MSRP was over $56K, We paid $28K
Still have 4/5 bumper to bumper warranty and 9/10 powertrain. Fantastic sedan for 1/2 the MSRP. Fast too!
Good times if you don’t mind expanding your search area. We got it from an out of state dealer and found it using autotempest.
People seem to want plug in hybrids but want to pay hybrid or ice money for them. All the Tesla bros always cite some study from an EU country possibly Norway that people who buy phev don’t buy evs. That’s just nonsense. It’s market specific and from several years ago and probably not even true where it was taken anymore. In the real world people drive the phev either realize they don’t use much gas or do and the next cycle adjust accordingly. Just like many ev buyers have owned a hybrid before and some even go back.
I suspect certain countries will continue to go with bev. Especially when the population lives in big polluted cities. But who knows when the us will get to 10% bev sales. Fleets will help a lot. We are at a point where bevs are close to price parity with ice cars for many classes. But not necessarily truck and suv. When you compare the features maybe but buyers don’t always do that. Long term the bev could be cheaper but that first year or two of depreciation has been a killer for many. Its not as bad as of now but will probably go back to over 50% in the first 2 years.
I’ve long held the belief Tesla is many things mainly an energy company but isn’t a car company and will stop producing cars at a point. Much like ge and Westinghouse stopped many consumer facing product lines but continue to exist in one form or another.
GM could be go down yet again this time who knows if bailout or sale.
I think vw is over exposed with cars that aren’t that great and could have some issues and need a gm style bailout.
The bigger Chinese companies that keep spawning brands will probably simplify. GAW, Chery, Geely especially I expect will cull at least 1/3 of their brands and realign their models. Stalantis and vag will likely have to cull some their brands too. Some brands might go into the life style market or something else.
I like Murphy’s Law more than Murphy’s chart.
Anyway, predicting the future has been kind of a depressing exercise for most of the 2020s, so I’ve pretty much rounded down my predictions to:
Things will get worse. And it will suck.
Happy Monday everyone!
Funny take. I had to go back and see which Murphy the article was referencing. Early on seems people were too bullish on EV’s — now too bearish. With EV’s like the Rivian R2 launching (albeit at a high price), demand will likely increase as the price of the technology decreases (and as the price of gasoline increases). Plus now Toyota is finally in the game, and they’re on track to be the largest seller of light vehicles in USA (currently behind GM, I believe). The 2028 election could be one of the largest indicators of the future of EV’s in USA by 2031.
I am looking forward to the EV3, and hoping the launch goes smooth, then in 3 years buy an off lease one to replace my Niro HEV. I do see the point of the report but I think it is overly pessimistic.
Oh good – the hybrid shift that needed to happen 20 years ago to make any difference for the climate is really kicking in now, after we’ve already passed a bunch of points of no return.
Any day now we’ll all be underwater! That is why key climate doomsday people buy beachfront property!
Any day! LOL
Yeah, not like wild weather patterns and prolonged heatwaves across Europe and the US or the prolonged droughts are any indicator. This is another example of why science literacy is so important.