Why $35,377 Is What You Should Expect To Pay For An Average New Car In America

It’s not exactly a lie, but when you see a headline crying about how the average transaction price of new cars in America is around $50,000, it’s important to remember that this number includes every loaded Grand Highlander, Denali-grade GMC truck, and Ineos Quartermaster. In some ways, that’s not the best number. I think the most helpful number is $35,377, and while that’s high compared to the past, I think it’s also a way more digestible figure.

I’ll start today’s Morning Dump with a bit of a repudiation of our fixation on ATP and explain why $35,377 is your better target price if you’re just buying a car. Maybe don’t pay that much for a Honda Prologue, though, as the Prologue is officially dead. Also, make sure your pay for your food if you work at Ford plant or you might get fired (and you might get fired if you do pay).

That’s all heavy, so let me end Friday in the usual way with some cool cars. In this case, a collection of some truly great Benzes.

$35,377 Is ‘The Keating Line’ Price For Cars

Here’s the chart everyone likes to refer to, via Cox Automotive:

As you can see, incentives and average transaction price have leveled off near $50k post-pandemic. Some of this is certainly costs rising, and to that you should blame both inflation and tariffs (which also likely contributed to inflation). And while it’s a big deal that this number briefly got above $50k, I think the $50k ATP price is a little misleading.

Why? That $50,000 number was somewhat specifically tied to a period in time when carmakers shoved a ton of electric vehicles out of their doors in order to claim the IRA tax credit, as you can clearly see in the graph. I do think the market will get back to a $50k ATP at some point, and that will largely be a reflection of the sort of K-shaped car market that includes people buying a lot of more expensive, three-row SUVs.

If you’re a normal person, looking for the normal car, that number gives the false impression that you should expect to pay $50,000 or more to get a new car. If someone is offering you a 911 for $50,000, take that deal, but as an average buyer looking for a vehicle in the most common segments, I would ignore it.

What’s a better number? I love naming things (when I coined the term trimflation to describe the prioritization of production of higher trim levels I never expected it would take off like it has) and I think the price you should consider paying for an average car will, from now on, be referred to as The Keating Line, for Cox Automotive analyst Erin Keating, who wrote this:

The largest concentration of available vehicles […] remains in the $30,000-to-$40,000 price range, where dealers had more than 688,000 units at month-end, roughly 24% of available inventory. The average listing price within that segment was $35,377, and days’ supply measured 70 days, well below industry average. In June, 28% of vehicles sold were priced in this $30,000-to-$40,000 range.

That makes a lot of sense to me. You take the largest price segment in terms of available inventory (in this case, $30-40k vehicles, making up 24% of the market) and you take the average listing price of that segment, which typically accounts for incentives (but not financing) and you’re currently left with $35,377.

This has the effect, I think, of getting us something closer to a median price than an average by kicking out the higher and lower ends of the market. Though, again, this isn’t a transaction price, this is a listing price. What you end up paying will have a lot more to do with very specific circumstances around financing, trade-ins, et cetera, and this number nicely sidesteps all of that. If you’re just looking for a nice new car, the Keating Line is a decent indicator of where you should set your expectations.

There are a lot of cars that most people seem to buy in that price bracket. That’s the price of a decent FWD RAV4 if you want a crossover, a nicely equipped Honda Accord hybrid if you want a sedan, or a Ford Maverick if you’re more into trucks. Obviously, if you want nicer trims or different drivetrains you might have to downsize your vehicle choice, but it gives you a place to start.

One of the shortcomings of this is that maybe you always end up with a number that’s somewhere in the middle. Would that have been true in the past? A few years ago, the most populous segment was $20k-$30k cars, and my guess is that the average price there was probably closer to $30k as the upper $20s got you the thick part of the market where there were a lot of Ford Escapes, mid-trim RAVs, et cetera.

I’m going to reach out to Cox Automotive and ask them why we don’t have a median transaction price and what The Keating line might have looked like in past years to see if it always tends towards the middle.

The Keating Line! You heard it here first.

Wait, The Prologue Wasn’t Already Dead?

To me, the GM-based Honda Prologue is the poster child for everything that went wrong with the EV head fake the industry experienced over the last few years. This is a decent-looking vehicle from an established brand that sold decently well when there were tax credits to be had. That it failed, ultimately, is both a reflection of larger trends not specific to this vehicle (a new administration running away from EVs, the reality that there aren’t as many buyers for EVs), and some specific issues this vehicle had (too expensive for less performance than a Tesla, with early-Tesla bugginess).

When Honda announced it was killing all its new EVs in the United States, I presumed that included the Honda Prologue. I guess it technically didn’t mean that, but Honda told Car And Driver that is, indeed, what is happening:

A Honda spokesperson confirmed the news to Car and Driver. “Honda will conclude sales of Prologue later this year following completion of the 2026 model year,” its statement read. “Prologue customers will continue to receive full support through our dealer network, including service, parts, and warranty coverage.”

It’s kinda strange that Honda won’t have a single EV for sale here next year.

Ford Looking Into Snack Kiosks That Keep Leading To The Company Firing Employees

As Ian Flemming wrote in Goldfinger: “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.”

I saw an article earlier this month about how a UAW worker at a Ford plant in Kentucky was fired for stealing a $1.95 cookie. It turns out he didn’t actually steal the cookie, and that his life was sent into a tailspin over an accident . This seemed like a fluke to me and I didn’t write it up, because as bad as it was, weird things happen all the time and Ford eventually offered the employee his job back.

According to this Detroit Free Press article, this isn’t just a one-off, but a trend:

Three union members with knowledge of the events interviewed by the Detroit Free Press say they believe there is a glitch in the vendor’s self-service machines resulting in the wrongful terminations of employees. The Free Press is not revealing the names of the members because they were told by their supervisors to not speak to the news media. The UAW administration did not respond to repeated requests for a comment on this situation.

Also, one of the union members and a Ford official both confirmed to the Detroit Free Press that at least three people who were recently fired from the Michigan Assembly Plant for alleged theft in the food store have been brought back to work after an investigation cleared them. The Detroit Free Press is not naming the Ford official because they said they are not authorized to share that information with the media.

That’s not great. A lot of this seems to revolve around the system either glitching out or beeping affirmatively even when a transaction failed (alternatively, some members claim in the article that the opposite happens and they’re charged erroneously for items they didn’t buy). This seems like a UX problem from Aramark, the kiosk-providing company, that’s turned into something way bigger. Given how hard it is to find great employees, this “fire first, figure it out later” approach also seems very flawed.

Self-serve kiosks should be a solved problem, but Ford also thought that using AI to do quality checks was a solved problem before having to reverse course and hire back its veteran quality control staff. Sometimes, the best person for a job is a person.

Check Out These Sweet Mercedes-Benz Cars From The Company’s Best Era

Are you ready for the “Patina Collection” from Broad Arrow?

“These are not your traditional Mercedes-Benz collector cars or even your typical AMG collectibles,” says William Cooper, Car Specialist for Broad Arrow Auctions. “Our offering from The Patina Collective represents an era of wild design and true excess coupled with incredible performance. The group speaks to an emerging market for a new generation of car collectors who are after the most unique and eclectic cars from the 1980s and 1990s, a group of cars that have earned a longstanding cult following and that are now coming into their own as true collectibles. The Patina Collective has an incredible reputation for assembling rare, high-quality finds and Broad Arrow’s online auction offers the chance to acquire these cars with confidence in their provenance, with importation complete, and entirely without reserve.”

There is some truly killer stuff in here that would make you King or Queen of any Radwood event. Low-key the MTS 190 E with a manual conversion and Rial mesh wheels is an inspired choice.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

If you buy one of those sweet ’80s Benzes you need to pump “She Blinded Me With Science” by Thomas Dolby.

The Big Question

What’s the best-priced new car under The Keating Line?

Top photo: Honda