When it comes to planning summer trips, my family has been in an ongoing debate between driving and flying. Thankfully, I booked some of the flights before the War in Iran started. The rest of the trips? It seems like they’re going to be costly no matter what I do.
I suppose the silver lining for me is that none of my personal journeys are to California, where gas just shot up to above $6 a gallon. Some of that has to do with the War in Iran and the rest with some quirks specific to California. Average gas prices are up everywhere, of course, and it doesn’t look like it’ll be great for anyone.
The Morning Dump this week has been more dominated by quarterly financial reports than the war, and that includes the first-ever quarterly report from Stellantis. It’s, uh, it’s not great other than a windfall from tariff refunds. Ford’s report shows the company doing better, though it, too, will benefit from getting tariff money back.
You know who did great in Q1? Škoda! I know you’ve all been missing Škoda content.
Welcome To The New Fuel Crisis, Just Like The Old Fuel Crisis
According to GasBuddy, the average price of gas shot up to $4.31 a gallon today. That’s high. That’s the highest it’s been since the last fuel crisis that peaked in 2021 following the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That’s a national average, though, and your fuel cost is going to depend a lot on where you live and what type of fuel you put into your car. I won’t get into crack spreads, but it’s gonna be a hard and long road for diesel owners for a while.
It’s going to be worse in California. It’s already worse in California, with prices going above $6 a gallon. On a national level, this is a direct result of the Iran War, which was started for… reasons. And while the United States has a lot oil, it’s more complicated than that.
For California, it’s way more complicated as Bloomberg mentions this morning:
California’s product supply is more challenging than for most of the rest of the US. No pipelines carry fuels into the state from the Gulf Coast, and the state has also seen two refineries shuttered since October 2025, eliminating roughly 20% of its capacity.
California is a bit of an energy island, and even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up tomorrow, prices aren’t going to immediately recover, at least according to oil market expert Phillip Verleger on his Substack:
California and the US West Coast can expect gasoline and diesel shortages soon. Extremely high prices (possibly above $10 per gallon) could be coming.
Several refineries in California have closed in the past year. The shutdowns have occurred as the state transitions away from gasoline. The transition is not expected to be easy, however. California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda relayed this news to an audience on March 4, as OPIS reported:
“As we go down (in California refining capacity), this is not going to be a smooth transition,” Gunda said. “Demand is falling very smoothly between 1 and 2 percent. But when a refinery leaves, depending on the size of the refinery, it could be 15 percent, so you have that sudden imbalance.”
This is important for consumers, obviously, and for carmakers as well. Stellantis, Ford, and GM are banking on full-size truck sales and large crossovers to be profitable this year. Is that going to happen if $6 gas or $7 diesel becomes the norm outside California?
Stellantis Reports Profitable Q1, Large Tariff Refund
Prior to this year, Stellantis only reported half-year earnings. This means this is the first-ever Q1 report from the massive automaker known as Stellantis. Cool! Even better, the company is profitable:
“As we initiate quarterly reporting, the first three months of 2026 reflect the early results of our actions to return Stellantis to sustainable, profitable growth. The products we launched in 2025 have been well received and we’re confident that the 10 new vehicles planned for 2026 will build on this momentum. Our priority is clear: to put our customers back at the center of everything we do and we look forward to sharing more on this at our Investor Day on May 21 in Auburn Hills.”
Earnings actually beat estimates, in part due to a $450 million tariff refund that the company is expecting this year. A lot of the rest of the growth came from RAM trucks and V8 Dodge Durangos. Why did the market seem to react negatively to this good news? Automotive News explains:
Shares in Stellantis on the Milan stock exchange were down as much as 10 percent in early trading, on weak cash flows and investors’ concerns about the sustainability of the turnaround in the North American market.
Industrial free cash flow was more than €1.9 billion negative in the quarter, although an improvement from a cash burn of more than €3 billion a year earlier.
It was “more negative than expected,” Oddo BHF analyst Michael Foundoukidis said, noting that it only included €700 million in charges out of a total of €1 billion expected for this year.
Stellantis will probably have to do more than pull a rabbit out of a hat one time to move the market.
Ford Also Profitable, Expects A $1.3 Billion Tariff Refund
The biggest tariff refund winner appears to be Ford, which is reporting a $1.3 billion expected return this year.
Our strong first-quarter results and raised full-year guidance reflect the momentum of the Ford+plan,” said Ford President and CEO Jim Farley. “We built the foundation for a more modern, resilient Ford, improving cost and quality and building our world-class team. We are well prepared to deliver for our customers and shareholders as we enter one of the most intensive product, software and physical services rollouts in our history.”
Added Ford CFO Sherry House: “The path to higher margins is clear, and the first-quarter demonstrates those building blocks in action. The strength in the quarter reflects strong execution in our profit pillars, and we remain on track to deliver our full-year cost reductions. When combined with accretive recurring revenue from software and physical services and decisive actions to improve our EV performance, we are driving a fundamentally more profitable business, allocating capital with extreme discipline, protecting our balance sheet, and positioning Ford to deliver consistently higher returns.”
Ford is, comparatively, in better shape than Stellantis. Margins are pointed in the positive direction, there are fewer drags on the business, and F-150 production should be able to kick up in the second half of the year.
Škoda Is The Second Most Popular Brand In Europe This Year
For all the troubles at Volkswagen, its Czech subsidiary Škoda is thriving. Would you believe that it’s the second best-selling brand in all of Europe, behind only Volkswagen and, as of Q1, ahead of Toyota? See, I’m not (that) crazy!
The company is also profitable, and just had its best quarter from a financial standpoint in its history.
“We carried the strong momentum of a record 2025 into the first quarter of 2026 to deliver the highest Q1 operating profit in Škoda Auto’s history. For the first time, Škoda has become Europe’s second best-selling car brand — a milestone we can be proud of in a highly competitive market.
Get down with your bad self, Klaus!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
You ever discover a musician exists and you can’t imagine how you missed them? My new obsession is the latest album from the Icelandic jazz singer Laufey. That this is a thing, and that it’s apparently a thing popular with teenagers, is fascinating to me. I absolutely love it and have listened to the extended release of the album probably 100 times in the last two weeks. “Silver Lining” is my favorite track, which is very Patsy Cline in the absolutely best way.
The Big Question
How much did your last fill-up cost? If you have an EV, how much for your last full charge?
Top photo: DepositPhotos.com
Fuel in my part of Texas went back up from 3.39 to 3.69/3.79 at our local stations.
We charge our EV at DC fast charge stations almost exclusively. Those stations actually went down a bit in price the past 8 months as more stations opened and more competition has filled out.
I’ve been averaging 3.5-3.6 miles per kWh around town. with a $13 a month Tesla membership i can get prices as low as 16-17 cents a kwh at local stations, but 31 cents in the evening or 38 cents during the day.
I never completely fill the car, but my last 20-80% charge which is about 160 miles around town cost us about $7 with the tesla membership.
so my operating costs are running between 4.8 and 8.8 cents a mile since i avoid using the more expensive chargers that cost 50 cents a kwh or more, which would push my costs to 14.5 cents a mile. but our easiest to get charging usually runs 31 cents a kwh which is the 8.8 cents a mile.
so cost per mile as good as an 75+ mpg vehicle, or as bad as a 25mpg vehicle in my area.
I paid $2.54 for E85 in my truck the other day, and the price is basically unchanged now even sitting next to $4.99 regular and $5.99 premium.
Kind of crazy that my truck, which will struggle to reach double digit mpg on E85, is arguably the cheapest vehicle to drive per mile that I have right now.
E85! Living the Iowan dream.
Rarely makes financial sense, but when it does, it’s a nice alternative.
Having a stable alternative sounds pretty slick!
It won’t be stable for long. Ethanol prices tend to trail regular gas prices, but they’ll eventually catch up.
Prices for ethanol are based on corn and natural gas prices because those are the inputs. Natural gas is export limited so prices will remain low until heating season. Corn prices are still under $5 per bushel (enough to make 3 gallons) because there is a record amount in storage after farmers did not want to sell last year’s record harvest at a loss. The corn market is still over supplied. Eventually corn farmers are going to plant less acres and apply less fertilizer because of higher fertilizer and fuel prices, but not this year.
There’s no way ethanol prices stay low. They’re leaving money on the table if they continue to massively undercut regular gas.
One could argue that’s war profiteering, but somehow I don’t think anyone is too concerned about being prosecuted for corruption by this DoJ.
“They’re leaving money on the table”
This is assuming that the ethanol refineries were running at maximum capacity before the price spike. They were not. Instead of running at 70% output and making the most per gallon, they can produce more to maximize profit. Even if selling more requires a slightly higher discount, the overall profit is higher.
It is the same for my brother who has a V6 Silverado that he uses to tow his boat.
Kind of crazy that the manufacturers have done a pretty good job of selling trucks that can run E85, but have done a poor job of putting that technology into everything else. The 2026 Chevrolet Trax (and other 1.2L models) can run on E85, because GM decided to turn that part of the software on this year. Small displacement turbo engines are better suited for ethanol’s high octane rating, yet the manufacturers spend more money making it work in a 6.2L 16-valve V8.
I assume they got some sort of credit for doing it on the gas guzzlers.
Yeah exactly. The credit is worth more on low mpg vehicles.
Every car sold in Brazil has to be flex fuel. It is mandatory, so if GM wanted to sell any of their South Korea or Chinese built vehicles there it has to have the software. GM probably still only made small SUVs flex fuel in the US because of the credits, but only after they decided that the cost to obtain the credits was $0.
Filled up last night. 49.75 for 12.136 gallons ($4.099 per). Costco. Most places were 20-30 cents higher.
I’m spending just over $50 for fillups now, it hurts. Riding my motorcycle today, 60+ MPG.
there are still plenty of stations in my area showing around 3.50 a gallon for gas., though I hear that some have jumped up close to 4. so I imagine the rest will follow if that is true.
Last charge was $3.03 for ~60.5 kWh, charging at home with overnight time-of-use rates. F-150 Lightning was charged starting from 54% to 100% for an upcoming trip.
not a big deal. short term pain. long term -world wide gain
Explain how.
My last fill-up was almost two weeks ago and cost $83 for premium, which was probably a record high for this vehicle. Fortunately I’m WFH so a tank can last a month or more sometimes, depending on circumstances.
Last fill (20 to 80%) of my EV cost the same as last year – about $5.50 for 180 miles. Feels great when gas is selling for over $5 a gallon here in SW Washington.
Surged up to $4.29 today. A typical fill-up for the Chrysler (do I even need to say van anymore? sort of implied these days isn’t it?) is about 70$. With my commute and weekend youth sports travel, I’m probably at about 100$ a week. Probably closer to 150$/week for the household now including my wife’s commute. 600$/month for transportation fuel is certainly not, uhhhhh, ideal. Though I’m sure others have it worse.
But hey, that’s life with commutes, two not particularly efficient vehicles, etc. We made our bed. Could both be driving Corolla Hybrids and surviving while spending half the money on gas. Too bad, so sad.
My last fill-up was $45 for my freaking Compass. But that’s what happens with a 13 gallon tank on NY 87, I guess.
My second to last fill-up was cheap (in comparison), as I grocery shop at a regional supermarket where they work with Sunoco to translate points earned in store to rewards, like 5 cents off a gallon of gas per 100 points! Saved 45 cents a gallon that fill-up, $3.74 instead of $4.19 per gallon.
Someone shops at Price Chopper (or Market 32 I guess).
We’re Hannaford people.
Yup! My town is big enough for 4 grocery stores (but one is definitely struggling), so it’s Price Chopper, Grand Union (the struggling one), P$C, or Walmart.
Holy crap you still have a Grand Union? Didn’t realize those still existed… anywhere.
There’s only 5 in the US now, apparently. At least according to a local radio station that asked the parent company about it lol
The increase in grocery prices has made it faster to collect the gas discount lately, so that, I guess, is helping.
Honestly I don’t drive far during the week, and I’m on a motorcycle, so its not really hitting us yet. I’m sure it will. Inflation alone cut my pay back to where I was 5 years ago, so at this rate I will be more than 10 years into a job and making the same as I was when I started as far as purchasing power.
Good. Hate to say it, but good. You want trumpers to change their minds? Start taking money out of their wallets. Most of these people drive large full sized trucks. Most of them probably with large trucks payments. There is absolutely no other way to spin this other than the prices are high because of the war in Iran. As we sit, trump’s numbers are cratering. Let’s be clear: We cannot have 2 more years of whatever this is. If enough people are fed up then the house AND Senate can be taken back and trump removed from office.
Unfortunately, even with cratering approval ratings, there is no path to get to a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict after the midterms.
I’m sure he’ll be impeached again because the public demands something to happen, but even if it comes to a vote in the senate, there is no way that you’ll get 15ish R’s to vote to convict.
I mean… in a normal time you could find 15 rational republican adults in the senate. But not the current US.
Right now Susan Collins is a full 10-11 points behind her Democratic opponent. That isn’t a fluke. That’s more the actual reality: Americans are pissed and blaming any and everyone in the GOP for it. At the start of trump’s 2nd term there was no way forward to taking back the senate. That has changed. If Mrs Collins loses- which she and others like her will- the senate will go back to the Democrats and so there’s chance he will in fact be removed. Even if he is not he will be a lame duck with no means to pass any of his agenda. And let’s not forget- he’s really not healthy.
I think even if there isn’t a 2/3rds majority, enough Republicans may be scared enough/tired enough of his crap to actually remove him.
But I just want him to die already and save all the drama. I will attend his state funeral just to see with my own eyes the SOB is dead. Assuming he has one.
He’ll be a lame duck for sure, but the numbers aren’t there for conviction. D’s can’t get to 67 (2/3 majority required for conviction/removal) this year. He’s not being removed no matter how big the blue wave.
The best that can happen is that he’s kneecapped politically for the next two years, and then in 2028 we elect an adult who can start to undo the damage to our systems, and put some people behind bars who enabled it and/or profited from their offices.
What’s so bizarre to me is that your statements are correct: the poll numbers are showing that Trump’s approval ratings, already in the toilet, are tanking further. But damn, you would not know it by the way Trumpers online talk about it. They still see him as a god who can do no wrong. It’s just “TDS this”, “TDS that” all day with these cultists. And while I know that in reality, these online die-hards are almost assuredly in the minority, they seem to represent an outsize portion of the opinion. Add to that all the Republicans in Congress who seem to be terrified of doing anything that might anger Trump, even if we know they don’t agree with him on all of this. And more than a few Democrats who write “strongly-worded letters” with one hand while voting with him to give the military a higher budget with the other. It’s all so insane.
Drunks and druggies seldom admit to their addictions.
As long electricity price remains stable, I am good. I keep pushing all my friends to switch to EVs before the tax credit ended, only one listened to me. He is very happy with this Equinox EV, their Sienna Hybrid is barely driven these days.
My husband drives 180 miles round trip on his Equinox EV, $10 USD to charge at home for that daily drive. On his previous Ford Escape, that would be around $35 USD, per day.
Meanwhile, i just got a Grand Marquis on the cheap side in very good condition thanks to gas prices, time to get those V8.
That is not a safe assumption to make, especially if you live in a state that has de-regulated electricity costs and/or new AI data centers are being built everywhere.