The War in Iran seems to be coming to a close, one hopes, although that isn’t likely to bring down energy prices to pre-conflict prices anytime soon. Conventional wisdom seems to be that it takes six months for fuel prices to truly get a customer to change segments. This time, according to a GM exec, that change is happening much faster. What’s going on here?
You don’t have to be a regular reader of The Morning Dump to know that consumers face a lot of other pressures, and my guess is that it’s making buyers more sensitive. This is a big deal for automakers, especially GM and Ford, which need the big margins from trucks and SUVs to keep profits up. Have we finally found the straw that breaks the consumer’s back?
While Rivian might be in a great spot to take up demand from consumers worried about fuel prices, it’s not stopping the company from laying off part of its workforce as it tries to become something approaching profitable. Higher labor costs in the United States aren’t a bug, but a feature of having a good economy and a high standard of living. China doesn’t quite have this problem (yet), so it’s not a big surprise that Chinese EVs are cheaper. Canada is importing a small number of Chinese cars and, while the current White House is saying this is a bad thing, it sounds like President Trump is interested in the concept? Gulp.
And, finally, Jeremy Clarkson has been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer.
GM Is Watching Demand Shifts ‘Really, Really Closely’
In some ways, the success of streaming platforms has both imperiled and also reinforced the idea of a monoculture. Nearly everyone gets a Seinfeld joke or reference to The Office. If you don’t get the topshot on this post, well, I hope you’re enjoying reading Middlemarch or whatever you’re doing.
GM’s timing is always interesting, and I find it slightly amusing that it’s out crowing about the return of the 350 V8 in its 2027 Chevy Silverado while also being honest about how quickly fuel prices are changing behavior. Believe it or not, this is something relatively new. People incorrectly assume that during times of elevated fuel prices that people run out and get hybrids, and that when fuel prices go down people run out and get big trucks. That’s not what’s happening and it’s generally logical.
Since the late 2010s, some vehicles have gotten way more efficient (though fuel economy improvements tailed off a lot, which I think is ironically because of EVs), so consumers have been able to upgrade from, for example a Ford Taurus to a Explorer to a three-row one and actually see an improvement in fuel economy.
Just remember that when someone talks about how everyone is driving inefficient SUVs these days.
This has also been good for automakers, who have been able to push consumers into more expensive and, even better, higher margin vehicles. You could argue it’s good for consumers that they can get a bigger vehicle and use less fuel, though I’d just say that it’s best when an automaker has a range of vehicles that can meet consumers where they are, including at a similar (or even smaller) size.
Is GM such an automaker? It certainly wants to be, because it’s realizing that the Iran conflict is moving consumer behavior faster. As GM North American President Duncan Aldred told a Center for Automotive Research conference, via Automotive News, people are changing preferences in ways not seen in a long time:
‘[W]e are seeing somewhat of a shrinking of pickup trucks, full-size utilities and some of the heavier [vehicles] and an increase in the more affordable segments of the industry.”
While that conforms to what you might expect, large truck and SUV buyers are a little less elastic in their demand historically. Is that changing?
“Historically, there’s normally at least a six-month lag between gas prices spiking like they have and then a real shift in segmentation,” he said. “But if I’m honest, what we’ve seen over the last 12 weeks or so is there has been a shift.”
I wrote back in April that one reason why the Average Transaction Price (ATP) is growing is that people are opting for larger vehicles, even if those larger vehicles tend to be more of the Grand Highlander variety than, say, a Suburban. This is creating a bit of a K-Shaped market, where people at the higher end of the income spectrum are less price-sensitive, less worried about fuel prices, and able to get better financing. At the other end, people are stretched about as far as they can go and any little move on any part of car ownership (insurance, fuel, whatever) can change behavior.
But not all pickup and large SUV buyers are wealthy, they’ve just been able to make the higher costs work because of longer payment terms. The 84-month buyer, maybe, can’t make it work. Certainly the 96-month buyer is going to have an issue. The market may have finally found the point at which the combination of factors just makes it hard to get people into the largest vehicles, at least for now.
As Aldred said, it’s something they’re watching “really, really closely” and I am as well.
Rivian Cuts Workforce After Rivian R2 Launch
Last week, the big news about the Rivian R2 was that we got to drive it, this week the news is that the company is cutting back its employees as The Wall Street Journal reports:
“Electric vehicle automaker Rivian laid off hundreds of employees Tuesday, a move to make the business profitable as it launches a key new model.
The cuts represent less than 2% of Rivian’s workforce, a spokesperson said. The company had about 15,200 employees at the end of last year.
“We recently restructured a handful of teams within Rivian as we work to profitably scale our business,” the company said.
The layoffs, effective Tuesday, impacted employees in Rivian’s service and customer organization, which handles sales and marketing. The changes were made to ensure the company can scale efficiently, the company said. ”
The company has never been profitable for a full year, though it believes that it can achieve operating profitability through the sale of the higher volume R2.
Does President Trump Really Like China’s EV Quota Deal?
Canada’s first Chinese-built EV to be sold under the country’s new quota system is the Lotus Eletre that Thomas reviewed. The first of many, presumably, of the 49,000 that’ll be let in over a 12-month period at a tariff rate of 6%. Canadian consumers seem curious about it while, at the same time, the White House has been negative about the program.
The one member of the Trump Administration who might not mind, apparently, is President Trump himself.
“He likes the structure, actually,” Carney told reporters at the Group of Seven leaders summit in Evian, France, on Wednesday. “We had a follow-up conversation.”
A hot mic captured Carney talking to Trump on Tuesday about the China deal and explaining how it capped the number of imported cars. “I thought you’d actually like that,” Carney was heard saying. Trump appeared to agree, saying “that’s good.”
Asked Wednesday about the interaction, Carney said the topic came up because Trump inquired about it.
My guess is that automakers and certain members of Congress would absolutely lose their mind if this was proposed, even if it was in exchange for a giant factory, but you never know.
Jeremy Clarkson Has ‘Aggressive Cancer’
View this post on Instagram
TV presenter, adequate farmer, and above adequate TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson went on Instagram to tell his many fans that the last two episodes of the series Clarkson’s Farm would be unusually somber. Now we know why. Clarkson has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer. LBC has the details:
Jeremy, 66, revealed that he has been grappling with the diagnosis to his co-stars Charlie and Kaleb Cooper in the Amazon Prime series.
As he discussed the harvest during the series, the much-loved TV host leant back in his seat before saying: “I’ve got cancer.”
Kaleb, who is visibly shocked in the emotional scenes, asked Jeremy: “No, you haven’t. Where?”
Jeremy responded: “Where it is of no concern of anybody. I’ve known since May.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I’ve been thinking a lot about the last scene of Blade Runner and the song “Tears in Rain” by Vangelis. I wonder what that means?
The Big Question
What’s your favorite Jeremy Clarkson line/face/bit?
Top photo: Seinfeld/GM
TBQ: Clarkson screaming in fear as he drives his 3 story RV on the freeway as Hammond and May laugh uncontrollably. After that episode, my wife would sometimes watch the specials with me. We have both been enjoying Clarkson’s Farm.
that was one of the first ones I thought of as well and then them rolling it off the cliff was so funny.
” Conventional wisdom seems to be that it takes six months for fuel prices to truly get a customer to change segments. This time, according to a GM exec, that change is happening much faster. ”
And THIS is one of the reasons why I don’t mind anymore when fuel prices shoot up.
All the people who bought these stupid oversized and overpowered vehicles (and don’t really need them) are having the Dildo of Consequences pay them a visit.
And of course I drive a plug-in hybrid… so even if fuel prices doubled, the impact it has on me is minimal
Also, Canada is an oil exporting country… so on a net basis, it’s good for our economy.
Plus, this screws over a large segment of Trump’s support base.
So I’m hoping this peace deal with Iran falls apart and Iran keeps the upper hand and makes Crooked “Canada-Has-Nothing-America-Needs” Trump and his gang look even worse.
“What’s your favorite Jeremy Clarkson line/face/bit?
For me, it was the Top Gear episode where he said “Am I a pencil? Am I a cauliflower? Am I a nuclear power sta– I’m a gearbox! Oh, heavens, I’m gonna swap some cogs around!”
I thought it was absolutely hilarious.
Hope he has a full recovery from his cancer diagnosis.
“Plus, this screws over a large segment of Trump’s support base”
It’s nice to know they have less money as a direct consequence of their stupidity at the voting booth, but the problem is they’ve all suddenly decided that they like the screwing and will continue to happily take it up the rear because admitting that they were morons who elected a moron who appointed morons to the most powerful positions on the planet is simply more painful for them.
They are the textbook definition of stupidity and further are the most gullible collection of rubes for 8647 and his gaggle of grifters to have ever existed.
You two did see how Oklahoma voted against raising minimum wage.
https://ocpathink.org/post/independent-journalism/oklahoma-voters-reject-sq-832-in-decisive-vote
Wow, that website.
“OCPA is working to build an Oklahoma where…traditional families can flourish…are defended from the attacks of woke radicals…
One of the greatest living Americans, Justice Clarence Thomas…”
The honorable Clarence “I’m just a working slob like you with a $200K gifted motorhome from a billionaire ‘friend’ who doesn’t influence my rulings no sir” Thomas.
$200k? I’m pretty sure Clarence doesn’t get out of bed unless the gifted motorhome has a price that starts at $1 million.
Yep.
LOL. Yeah, I probably should look up the estimated worth of that thing. I only saw pictures of it and my perception of high-end RV prices is poor.
Yeah. I should’ve put a warning before the link.
Look, I’m a firm believer that the Founders were completely and absolutely wrong about not applying tests for the privilege of voting. People voluntarily voting against their own interests and for more misery should not have the right to vote and make the lives of others just as miserable. You proved you can’t be trusted to make an educated (!) decision.
We both know (or should know) that such tests would have been abused when African Americans were given the right to vote (because they were).
True
I would’ve voted to RAISE minimum wage.
I also live in Michigan and am pro union.
I was pointing out the stupidity of others.
The founders of the USA did have restrictions for voting.
Originally you had to be white, male, and a landowner to vote.
I’m disappointed, but seeing the details, it was kind of a big ask of “the common clay of the west. You know… morons.”
Yep.
I gave up trying to even imagine whatever trump supporters were thinking after his first term. And they fuckin’ voted for him again. What it boils down to is that the rest of us don’t want to admit to ourselves that there really are millions of other Americans who think this is all ok. But that’s reality. You drive out of any major or even minor metro and it turns right back into “it” immediately. Even here in the Bay Area of California- the most liberal spot in the nation- you leave and head to the suburbs and it gets back to the big dick measuring trucks, stereotypical white males who like the same things that are equally lame and sort of cookie-cutter. Guns. Camo. Murica’. Big ass trucks. Nonofthatpusseyshit..
A huge portion of the nation is full of dumbasses. People who have at very best, room temp IQs who seldom look beyond base headlines, who eagerly allow themselves to be indoctrinated with dumbed down cable news, buy all of the bullshit, more or less waste natural resources.
I guess you can tell I’m just done. And I don’t give a fuck whether its Democrats or someone or some other group of people- ideally enough Americans who maybe think this is wrong- and does something about it.
I stopped wasting time talking to these people. They are dug in, they made their choice and its up to the rest of us to right the ship in November or at least put some wrenches in the spokes.
All of this, I feel this 100%
Carney has been in the news a lot over the last 24 or so hours positively sucking up to Trump and being his best buddy. It’s been hilarious watching it happen, clearly Carney has figured out to be on Trump’s good side at least temporarily until the USMCA revision thing is figured out. Flattery, in this case, will get you everywhere and everything you want. Trump takes it all entirely at face value.
Yeah, keep the Iran thing on the front burner for another couple of months, just so people don’t forget the abject stupidity come November. There are FAR fewer Trump flags in the back of pickups and bumper stickers on cars and way fewer red hat sightings as of the last couple of months. After Iran, we can go back to discussing Island getaways to Epstein Island, which was of course the true reason for the Iran war in the first place, and the one (unstated) objective that actually was a success (to take it out of the news cycle).
PROBABLY COULD HAVE STUCK WITH FUEL EFFICIENT AND ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAINS THIS ENTIRE TIME
My Dad currently has an aggressive form of cancer.Bladder cancer. And its every bit as awful as it could be. He has been in the ICU once, in the ER 4-5 times and all other forms of torture. At one point I was in the air, flaying across country because he was in the ICU with septic shock and I didn’t know if I was going to have a Dad at the end. Its fucking awful and I wouldn’t wish it on my worst enemies. I wish Mr Clarkson well.
My sympathies. I went through a similar thing with my mom a few years back. It was only 3 months, which was a blessing and a curse. I can’t imagine dealing with that for years like some people do.
Which version? Original? Directors cut, Final cut? They have different endings
His bit about Jaaaaaagggg drivers always gets me. I don’t think it really translates to the average Jag owner in the US, so we have to imagine what it must mean to own a Jaguar in the UK.
TBQ: Peel P50
My favorite Clarkson-ism is the “Oh no! Anyway,….”
I use that all the time.
I use that and I didn’t even know it was him who said it.
“We all wish him the best in his recovery.”
Absolutely!
I know so many people who are absurdly over leveraged in new vehicle purchases for no reason, people with brand new 50k cars with second jobs, people with trucks that cost more than they make a year, people that committed the sin of “just get me under $XYZ dollars per month and I’ll sign” and more. Financial literacy in the US is horrific, and a shock 50%+ hike in gas prices are pushing so many people past their breaking point.
Matt, I’d be very curious to see reporting on automotive default and repossession rates in the coming months. I suspect they’ll jump in a few months time once the loans start to hit repo status.
TBQ: The “my genius” bits have become a regular sticking point in my group of automotive enthusiast friends, to the point that any discussion of any automotive decision includes it.
They really are. Even amongst my group of very smart friends, a few of them are up to their eyeballs in debt. One friend seems to never have ANY savings because he spends it as soon as it comes in. I worry because he’s got some major health issues that could become much worse and cause him to become disabled. So many people live like that.
The neighbors above my parents in rural TN earn more than I do here on the west coast but again- broke. They spend all of it. On what I have no clue because you would never know from seeing the house.
I am about as opposite of that as it comes and seeing as how AI is coming to take the jobs, I’m seeking early retirement because its coming. I can do that because me and my wife live cheap and saved up. A lot of people are going to be working until they die.
TBQ: without a doubt, the infamous Ariel Atom review. That face will live forever.
Forcing people into bigger, less efficient, more expensive vehicles isn’t a strategy that’s going to work out long term? I’m shocked, shocked I tell. But that last earnings call? Amazing. Line went UP!
Anyway my favorite Clarkson bit is just him shouting HAMMOND and adding assorted witty insults. I also enjoyed when he and Captain Slow gifted Hammond the worst car in the world, although the SC430 deserved better. Anyway he’s certainly not a guy I’d want to sit down and talk about social issues with but I do wish him a full recovery because he’s one of the best to ever do it.
an upvote for your first paragraph.
The Reliant Robin “sketch” will always hold a place near and dear to my heart.
First thing I thought of!
My god, that bit was absolutely brilliant. They put out a lot of stupid garbage in the later years, but the Reliant Robin sketch was perfect.
I’m sure that there’ll be a massive swing of the pendulum once oil prices dip back down and we wean ourselves off the news of (yet another) conflict in the middle east.
I don’t feel bad, at all, for GM (or Ford and Stellantis) and their decisions to double-down on large SUVs.
But I don’t, for a moment, think it’ll have any lasting hold as pump prices drop as we all have memory loss of, yet again, another price spike
And then, of course it’ll be a surprised Pikachu-face when the next gulf hurricane hits.
“Just remember that when someone talks about how everyone is driving inefficient SUVs these days.”
They ARE inefficient when compared to some of the other options that could have replaced that Taurus. Like say a 50 mpg Camry hybrid. Which BTW costs the same as that Taurus did 16 years ago whereas the Explorer costs a lot more.
Seriously. The goal posts are just suggestions at this point.
Also, that was the 3.5 Taurus against the 2.3T Explorer so the EPA numbers will favor the smaller turbo
Vangelis was a true genius. I love the opening to Blade Runner, with the fires flaring and the musical score taking me somewhere new. Back in the 1980’s I went to buy the movie score, but the only thing available was an orchestral performance. I ended up buying the Vangelis Themes CD which had the Blade Runner End Titles and a lot of other good themes I was not familiar with.
Moving forward into the 1990’s, someone on usenet mentioned a limited edition bootleg of the music was available and I scored a copy. Eventually I guess the rights issues got worked out and a formal Vangelis CD was released, but some of the music had movie dialogue added so I stuck with my bootleg; though the quality was noticeably lower.
Blade Runner is one of the few 1980s movies where the synthesizers don’t sound dated. The music matches the movie perfectly.
If you haven’t seen it, any Blade Runner fan should track down the “making of” documentary Dangerous Days. 3 hours long but, by the time you get to the end, you want more.
Dangerous Days is included in the multi-disc blu-ray collectors sets with five cuts (US Theatrical, International, Workprint, Director’s Cut, and Final Cut). It’s also available on the UHD 4K disc, which only includes the Final Cut.
TBQ:
My favorite Clarkson bit is where he talks about driving a Porsche 928 at extra-legal speeds to go see his father who was passing away.
“Good news!” Or his smug face
Regarding the Iran conflict, I’ll believe it when I see it.
I also will say for those who have sworn off Clarkson, I very much enjoy Clarkson’s Farm and he’s impacted the local area there for the better from my understanding.
“Just remember that when someone talks about how everyone is driving inefficient SUVs these days.”
Since Ford doesn’t sell sedans anymore to compare with the Exploder – let’s use 2.0L, 9 speed Mercedes-Benz – E350 sedan vs GLE350 – as a comparison.
The sedan gets 25 city and 33 highway for the RWD model, and the 4Matic is 24 city and 33 highway.
The SUV gets 21/28 for the RWD model, and 19/26 for the 4Matic.
SUVs are and will always be more inefficient than similarly-powered and sized modern sedans and wagons – it’s just a simple fact.
The justification for SUVs will continue until morale improves.
Technology doesn’t erase the laws of physics.
Ford’s primary compact vehicle offering right now is the Bronco Sport, which gets 30mpg highway in its most fuel efficient form, its the de facto successor to the Focus, which got up to 40mpg in its most efficient form. Also, the Bronco Sport is a compact SUV barely hitting 30mph with a tiny 3 cylinder, when we all know full-size Buick sedans with the 3.8 V6 used to do that easily. Hell, my V8 Challenger can do 30 mpg out of a tank under the right circumstances (13 hours on the Interstate with cruise control set)
I’m always impressed with what a V8 can do at cruise, but it is comical how quickly that average drops the second you accelerate with even the lightest of feet.
It very much depends on the vehicle though, I’ve never been able to get out of the mid 20s, at most, with a Panther or B-body, the transmission is probably the big difference there. I believe I calculated 24.something mpg running a mid 1980s Town Car up from Florida to Delaware, which was mostly pointing it straight on I95 with the cruise set
Dad has a V8 Challenger with a manual and shaker hood. Every time I borrow it I try to maximize the MPG and it’s always a bummer when the average plummets even as I lightly accelerate and shift early to keep the RPMs low.
Just imagine if all the innovation that has gone into reducing fuel consumption had been applied to smaller more inherently efficient vehicles.
…Burns at stake.
George had just gotten out of a cold pool, was changing his swim suit when a woman accidentally walked in on him. She looked down and let out a little chuckle, apologized, turned around while George yelled “the pool is cold, it’s shrinkage”.
More specifically, it was Jerry’s girlfriend who walked in on George accidentally, when George had been scheming of a way to “accidentally” see her naked. And she gossips about the size issue to George’s girlfriend, basically killing their relationship
I WAS IN THE POOL!!!!
The most surprising bit for me is that he’s only 66. He has not aged well.
That being said, cancer sucks and I hope he can kick it’s ass like I did.
I’m not sure if he still smokes, but worth a reminder that smoking take a toll on people in both how they age and health outcomes.
I keep telling my wife, and she keeps telling me to…well, you can probably guess the answer.
Happy wife, happy life.
It’ll be happy till it’s not. We have a 6 year old and she’s been smoking for 27 years at this point.
I’d like her to be there to experience our kid growing up, instead of just telling my daughter how proud her mom would be.
“We have a 6 year old and she’s been smoking for 27 years at this point.”
I initially read that as if your 6 year old has been smoking for 27 years… LOL
I’m not a recruiting ad.
He was a heavy smoker for a long time (might still be, I don’t know) and a hard drinker as well. Neither are uncommon for his generation, especially in England. Unfortunately both of those things age you significantly and come with a litany of adverse health affects.
And drinks alcohol frequently. Drink and smoke (if he smokes) age people, but drinkers seem to hit a wall in their 60s where they visibly age rapidly.
I wish Jeremy a full and rapid recovery.
He reportedly smoked three packs a day for much of his life. That will really take a toll on you.
I’ve been smoking most of my adult life and have never smoked more than a pack in a single day. Ever. Three packs would make me violently ill. I guess when you could smoke everywhere it wasn’t hard to do. I’ve never smoked in my home or even my car.
Yeah, and he’s a rich 66, which makes it all the more surprising. Mid 60s usually ends up looking more like early 50s for people in his socioeconomic class
Seriously. When I first started watching the early seasons on netflix circa 2010, I thought he was in his 60’s then. Blew me away when I realized he was in his 40’s for those early episodes.
“The most surprising bit for me is that he’s only 66. He has not aged well.”
Yeah years of smoking cigarettes will do that. He quit smoking in 2017 after having a big health scare. But that doesn’t undo the premature aging the smoking already caused.
Diet looks to be a problem as well. That big ol’ taught basketball gut he’s been carrying for years is a bad sign.
And quitting smoking in one’s 50s is better than not quitting, but you’ve done so much damage that emphysema and COPD is still a real probability and those are nasty ways to go.
1. I didn’t get the top shop reference.
2. Now imagine applying all the technology that got the Explorer so efficient, to a Taurus.
TBQ: so many from TG and GT…
George in cold water pool and the resulting shrinkage. Imagine if hot water did the opposite? Many men would be in the ER with scalded genitals.
My hot tub sometimes has that affect.
What make and model? Asking for a friend.
If the water is cold enough, at least it will get them hard.
Anytime Jezza is yelling “Power and speeeeeeeeeeed!” What typically follows is going to be unfortunate for whatever vehicle he is in. So those scenes, to see how the buffoon hammers his way out of it.
My wife yells “Speed and Power!” whenever we’re stuck in our TJ or namesake vehicle. I gently remind her we don’t have a mechanic with a truck full of parts off-camera to assist when we snap an axle.
“Oh no! Anyway…”
Best wishes to Mr Clarkson. My wife can’t stand him, but I love watching him.
I enjoyed Top Gear, but found The Grand Tour unwatchable and the Farm just meh.
Plus he is, and always has been, an insufferable asshole so I struggle to find enough enthusiasm to watch.
Have been a top gear, grand tour and now Clarkson’s farm fan for a long time he always seemed like the biggest jerk and my least favorite of the 3. This last season of Clarkson’s farm and seeing him be emotional and show feelings and being attached to his animals is really refreshing.
I’d agree but his work on Clarkson’s Farm and what he’s trying to do there for the local farming community seems genuine and good to me. He seems to genuinely care about the animals, farming community, and the local environment there.
My family absolutely loves the spinoff shows post-GT.
My eldest has such a strong reaction on every episode with the pigs, and you can see Clarkson showing genuine glee when the pigs are frolicking around.
I’m waiting for more James May shows – Our Man in Japan was great. And the cooking shows were fun and not too serious.
Yes, we loved the cooking shows and watch his YouTube FoodTribe (or whatever he calls it now) where he just makes random food things in his ‘bunker’.