The War in Iran seems to be coming to a close, one hopes, although that isn’t likely to bring down energy prices to pre-conflict prices anytime soon. Conventional wisdom seems to be that it takes six months for fuel prices to truly get a customer to change segments. This time, according to a GM exec, that change is happening much faster. What’s going on here?
You don’t have to be a regular reader of The Morning Dump to know that consumers face a lot of other pressures, and my guess is that it’s making buyers more sensitive. This is a big deal for automakers, especially GM and Ford, which need the big margins from trucks and SUVs to keep profits up. Have we finally found the straw that breaks the consumer’s back?
While Rivian might be in a great spot to take up demand from consumers worried about fuel prices, it’s not stopping the company from laying off part of its workforce as it tries to become something approaching profitable. Higher labor costs in the United States aren’t a bug, but a feature of having a good economy and a high standard of living. China doesn’t quite have this problem (yet), so it’s not a big surprise that Chinese EVs are cheaper. Canada is importing a small number of Chinese cars and, while the current White House is saying this is a bad thing, it sounds like President Trump is interested in the concept? Gulp.
And, finally, Jeremy Clarkson has been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer.
GM Is Watching Demand Shifts ‘Really, Really Closely’
In some ways, the success of streaming platforms has both imperiled and also reinforced the idea of a monoculture. Nearly everyone gets a Seinfeld joke or reference to The Office. If you don’t get the topshot on this post, well, I hope you’re enjoying reading Middlemarch or whatever you’re doing.
GM’s timing is always interesting, and I find it slightly amusing that it’s out crowing about the return of the 350 V8 in its 2027 Chevy Silverado while also being honest about how quickly fuel prices are changing behavior. Believe it or not, this is something relatively new. People incorrectly assume that during times of elevated fuel prices that people run out and get hybrids, and that when fuel prices go down people run out and get big trucks. That’s not what’s happening and it’s generally logical.
Since the late 2010s, some vehicles have gotten way more efficient (though fuel economy improvements tailed off a lot, which I think is ironically because of EVs), so consumers have been able to upgrade from, for example a Ford Taurus to a Explorer to a three-row one and actually see an improvement in fuel economy.
Just remember that when someone talks about how everyone is driving inefficient SUVs these days.
This has also been good for automakers, who have been able to push consumers into more expensive and, even better, higher margin vehicles. You could argue it’s good for consumers that they can get a bigger vehicle and use less fuel, though I’d just say that it’s best when an automaker has a range of vehicles that can meet consumers where they are, including at a similar (or even smaller) size.
Is GM such an automaker? It certainly wants to be, because it’s realizing that the Iran conflict is moving consumer behavior faster. As GM North American President Duncan Aldred told a Center for Automotive Research conference, via Automotive News, people are changing preferences in ways not seen in a long time:
‘[W]e are seeing somewhat of a shrinking of pickup trucks, full-size utilities and some of the heavier [vehicles] and an increase in the more affordable segments of the industry.”
While that conforms to what you might expect, large truck and SUV buyers are a little less elastic in their demand historically. Is that changing?
“Historically, there’s normally at least a six-month lag between gas prices spiking like they have and then a real shift in segmentation,” he said. “But if I’m honest, what we’ve seen over the last 12 weeks or so is there has been a shift.”
I wrote back in April that one reason why the Average Transaction Price (ATP) is growing is that people are opting for larger vehicles, even if those larger vehicles tend to be more of the Grand Highlander variety than, say, a Suburban. This is creating a bit of a K-Shaped market, where people at the higher end of the income spectrum are less price-sensitive, less worried about fuel prices, and able to get better financing. At the other end, people are stretched about as far as they can go and any little move on any part of car ownership (insurance, fuel, whatever) can change behavior.
But not all pickup and large SUV buyers are wealthy, they’ve just been able to make the higher costs work because of longer payment terms. The 84-month buyer, maybe, can’t make it work. Certainly the 96-month buyer is going to have an issue. The market may have finally found the point at which the combination of factors just makes it hard to get people into the largest vehicles, at least for now.
As Aldred said, it’s something they’re watching “really, really closely” and I am as well.
Rivian Cuts Workforce After Rivian R2 Launch
Last week, the big news about the Rivian R2 was that we got to drive it, this week the news is that the company is cutting back its employees as The Wall Street Journal reports:
“Electric vehicle automaker Rivian laid off hundreds of employees Tuesday, a move to make the business profitable as it launches a key new model.
The cuts represent less than 2% of Rivian’s workforce, a spokesperson said. The company had about 15,200 employees at the end of last year.
“We recently restructured a handful of teams within Rivian as we work to profitably scale our business,” the company said.
The layoffs, effective Tuesday, impacted employees in Rivian’s service and customer organization, which handles sales and marketing. The changes were made to ensure the company can scale efficiently, the company said. ”
The company has never been profitable for a full year, though it believes that it can achieve operating profitability through the sale of the higher volume R2.
Does President Trump Really Like China’s EV Quota Deal?
Canada’s first Chinese-built EV to be sold under the country’s new quota system is the Lotus Eletre that Thomas reviewed. The first of many, presumably, of the 49,000 that’ll be let in over a 12-month period at a tariff rate of 6%. Canadian consumers seem curious about it while, at the same time, the White House has been negative about the program.
The one member of the Trump Administration who might not mind, apparently, is President Trump himself.
“He likes the structure, actually,” Carney told reporters at the Group of Seven leaders summit in Evian, France, on Wednesday. “We had a follow-up conversation.”
A hot mic captured Carney talking to Trump on Tuesday about the China deal and explaining how it capped the number of imported cars. “I thought you’d actually like that,” Carney was heard saying. Trump appeared to agree, saying “that’s good.”
Asked Wednesday about the interaction, Carney said the topic came up because Trump inquired about it.
My guess is that automakers and certain members of Congress would absolutely lose their mind if this was proposed, even if it was in exchange for a giant factory, but you never know.
Jeremy Clarkson Has ‘Aggressive Cancer’
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TV presenter, adequate farmer, and above adequate TV presenter Jeremy Clarkson went on Instagram to tell his many fans that the last two episodes of the series Clarkson’s Farm would be unusually somber. Now we know why. Clarkson has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer. LBC has the details:
Jeremy, 66, revealed that he has been grappling with the diagnosis to his co-stars Charlie and Kaleb Cooper in the Amazon Prime series.
As he discussed the harvest during the series, the much-loved TV host leant back in his seat before saying: “I’ve got cancer.”
Kaleb, who is visibly shocked in the emotional scenes, asked Jeremy: “No, you haven’t. Where?”
Jeremy responded: “Where it is of no concern of anybody. I’ve known since May.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I’ve been thinking a lot about the last scene of Blade Runner and the song “Tears in Rain” by Vangelis. I wonder what that means?
The Big Question
What’s your favorite Jeremy Clarkson line/face/bit?
Top photo: Seinfeld/GM
As someone who watched dad deteriorate from both prostate cancer and the treatments, get your PSA routinely checked when you reach that age. I saw his health history to find several years of data, then many years with no testing, then again at a high level. Too late. Get tested, and address it early.
“It turns out that Alan speaks fluent Gerald.”
https://youtube.com/shorts/vK0LExu5LNo?si=AR4knxxnuzJI092n
While I enjoyed Top Gear and The Grand Tour, I think Clarkson’s Farm is his best. He’s a lot of things, many of them undesireable, but he comes across as genuine and relatable in Clarkson’s Farm.
As far as cancer goes, if you’re going to get one, prostate cancer is probably the best one to get. It sounds like they caught it early and hopefully the treatment is successful.
Hey in my area of Pennsylvania gas prices are down to $4.09 lower than it ever was under Biden. Where are the over priced gas? Are they blue states?
It has to be the “road test report” on the Vectra B where he stood next to it for several minutes of dead silence before saying “I have nothing to say about this car” and then walking out of frame immediately before the cut back to the studio.
Apparently pretty much everyone who worked for Vauxhall in Luton wrote in to complain to the BBC.
Sorry to hear about Clarkson’s cancer. Cancer SUCKs.
Favorite quote:
“Speed has never killed anyone. Suddenly becoming stationary, that’s what gets you.”
Well timing is weird sometimes, I watched a YouTube video yesterday from the brilliant Dr John Campbell and he was astonished if not shook by reports coming in that cancer in some cases has been cured by Fenbendazole. People with advanced stage 4 cancers takes this drug when all hope is lost as a last resort and it clears out the cancer. How is not documented but I suspect a non-patentable generic super affordable and effective cancer drug would not excite the billion dollar cancer research industry one bit. They would likely fight it, ridicule it, say it is dangerous, ineffective.
The yt video is called “FenBen in Stage 4 cancer” and was published Nov 10, 2025
Thank you for sharing.
Haven’t watched the video, but I looked up the drug and a study on it. Very promising, but the time it takes to clear all the regulatory hurdles means it’s years into the future. I would say though, the first company to get that far will make a killing, even if it’s off-patent.
TBQ – “In the olden days I always got the impression that TVR built a car, put it on sale, and then found out how it handled. Usually when one of their customers wrote to the factory complaining about how dead he was.”
sorry to learn of his diagnosis, i am a cancer survivor (15-years) and know first hand that cancer sucks, but offer hope that it can be beat.
I use a photo of him with a giant grin behind the wheel pretty often for first drive in the warm or something fun. I have one of him after beating his car with a hammer and it started, yelling “I mended something!” whenever I actually fix something.
I have every DVD available of Top Gear, but didn’t quite get into Grand Tour as much. And never watched the farm show.
I fondly remember him driving the Fiat 500 Abarth (like I owned for 7 years) and actually loving it.
tbq: The one that sticks with me is
You probably now know what I drive…
My favorite Clarksonism is any reference to his “engineering genius” generating gravity, being unbounded in scope, and sometime being audible, if you listen carefully.
While not a Clarkson fan, it really sucks that he has cancer.
SUVs are inefficient. That they can do better than smaller older vehicles is entirely down to far more expensive and advanced drivetrains operating on much smaller margins of safety. Were those drivetrains in sensible vehicles, mileage would be incredible and they could even be downsized and detuned for better operating safety margins and run on much cheaper 87 while getting the same or better performance. That’s all assuming those EPA numbers are reflections of real life. I doubt the average black Explorer tailgating everyone like they’re a cop is getting 29 mpg while doing so.
Thank you for pointing out the gas mileage about smaller cars. Yes, modern engines are more efficient; imagine how many more miles per gallon they would get in something the size of a Fiesta instead of an Explorer. We could be back in the realm of cars getting 40-50 MPG without being hybrid!
Preach. I had a 2019 Toyota Corolla SE hatchback that routinely got 40-45 mpg with a 210 hp naturally aspirated engine and a CVT.
I always loved this Clarkson quote:
“I’d like to consider Ferrari as a scaled down version of God”.
And of course:
“Powerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr”
Short all domestics and long Japanese and Korean. I pray the truck and suv party is coming to an end.
There are too many Clarkson bits to pick from. I’m sure his public and private persona are wildly different. I hope for his early recovery.
GM’s big truck customer pool is drying up much like Edward Casaubon…
They said that during the great recession. It bounced back then, it will do it again.
With the Strait of Hormuz no longer being international waters, fuel costs may drop but they won’t return to pre-conflict levels. It’s time for everyone to realize how much actually costs once and for all.
What’s interesting is with everything these days being done in the interests of “National Security” for some reason the US is not well equipped to refine the type of oil that we produce. So we sell ours internationally and buy that of other producers which we can refine. And in theory (and recent actuality) there is the real possibility of not being able to get the type of oil we need and can work with.
If “National Security” really was something that mattered would it not behoove the powers that be to demand that domestic producers actually be able to refine the version of oil that we produce, i.e make it possible for the U.S. to be its own island since that’s in effect what most other policies of late have been working toward?
Of course that would also mean that prices would probably be able to actually come down in the long run and be far more predictable without the costs of having to send our oil halfway around the world and import other oil from the other side of the planet and be at the mercy of whatever conflicts interfere with all of that, nevermind if those conflicts are caused by, well, us. I guess we couldn’t have that..
If we’re going to spend the money, I’d rather see it go into onshoring EV and renewable production. It’s almost like we had a framework for that, then decided to chuck it to own the libs, the one thing more important than national security.
There seems to be enough money and profit to be able to do both so everyone is happy. Or so nobody is happy, which might be more achievable!
Retrofitting US refineries does make sense for national security reasons but not economically. Companies won’t do it unless forced to and then customers would pay for the transition
There is also limited reason to make changes because US gasoline consumption peaked in 2018
.
Prices never go back to where they were before. Otherwise I’d still be paying $1.75 for gas like I did that one time before hurricane Katrina.
Such a bummer to hear that about Clarkson. I spent my teenage years watching a lot of Top Gear, back when it was THE car show. I spent hours chasing down episodes online and had a huge book of episodes I burned onto DVDs. I learned a lot and as cheesy as it sounds, it helped me become the car enthusiast I am today. I didn’t have many friends into cars, so Top Gear was my go-to. I teared up during the final episode of The Grand Tour. Wishing him nothing but the best.
My grandfather beat prostate cancer in his 70s (along with having a quadruple bypass and a cow trampling incident that broke his femur, plus breaking his leg again after falling several years later). They said he’d never walk again, yet he was up and about on his farm until literally the day he passed, at 82.
Your Grandfather’s one tough man.
He was also a three pack a day smoker from the time he was 10 until he turned 50. He had emphysema and COPD. He was a trucker and visited every state but Hawaii, plus all the Canadian provinces. He had also been inside a tornado, when one hit his truck.
My family are a long lived bunch. Both of my grandmothers are still alive and kicking at 86. One has been told by doctors in no uncertain terms that she is a medical miracle and they don’t know how she’s still alive.
A hard but well lived life.
You got stout DNA.
Obviously, I don’t know what kind your grandfather had, but there are different kinds of prostate cancer. By or around 100 years old, I’ve been told by doctors that pretty much every male gets it, but it’s nearly always the slow kind that isn’t worth combating (my grandfather got it when he was 100, but heart failure got him at 103. He also survived colon cancer in his 70s . . . man, the farts after would stink up two floors of the house and I can still hear my grandmother yelling at him “Jesus Christ, Johnny!” and him chuckling). With the fast kind, you have to catch it early. I think that’s also what got Frank Zappa.
More likely because they squeezed as much blood from the ICE stone as they can. Automakers are already having to do unpopular things like stop-start and wet belts in order to eke out another .5% of efficiency. We’re well down the diminishing returns path for efficiency. Honestly, we have been for a while. The non-linearity of the MPG scale has hidden it, but I recall reading years ago that the Prius efficiency gains have been diminishing every generation, even though the MPG gains continue. Once you’ve optimized all the systems there just isn’t that much left.
Overall, I would say consumers are just spooked right now. A freaking lot has happened in 2026 already and people are both exhausted and wary of taking risks. And a bunch of the stuff that happened has been so consequential that even people who normally don’t follow current events are realizing that things are bad. Combine that with the K-shaped economy meaning there is an ever-decreasing number of people who can afford a $50000+ new vehicle, and it would be surprising if there weren’t a migration to more affordable vehicles.
Luckily for GM, they have two of the better low-cost EVs out there right now, and they’ve essentially killed incentives for them over the past couple of months. You used to be able to find them with five figure discounts off MSRP, now you’re lucky to get a few grand. Even used prices are up $5k+ over where they were pre-Iran.
While I think GM makes some poor decisions and should still offer a sedan or two, they are certainly in the best position of the domestic brands to weather whatever twists and turns the next few years throw at us. It would be really dumb to, for example, be without a compact crossover and then cancel your Equinox/Rav/CRV competitor, for example, hoping people step up to a $40k+ 3-row SUV.
We are almost at the end of the line with diminishing returns for pure ICE vehicles.
Hybrids are a simple and now cheap way to boost fuel economy by 25 to 30%.
“The War in Iran seems to be coming to a close, one hopes, although that isn’t likely to bring down energy prices to pre-conflict prices anytime soon.”
Typical Donald. Break shit really badly that was fine before. Lie that you broke it. Fix it less than halfway and then lie about how it’s now 1000% better and how amazing you are even though things are demonstrably worse than before you started breaking it.
The way he said “these brakes are meeeedium-good” as his chosen jalopy struggled to stop from a high speed as he clutched the wheel. I use that whenever something is not working particularly well, substituting out “brakes” for whatever said object is.
The way he said “get OUT of the WAY” when held up by some vehicle in some episode for some reason. The way he said it was not anger or irritation, but a bit of impatient innocent desperation. I use that one frequently when driving.
Clarkson, when not expressing boorish bigoted troglodyte opinions, has a particular charm in his presentation style that makes him strangely likeable. I feel bad for this diagnosis.
I’ve never seen this before. It is shocking. Downright unprecedented and shocking.
Twenty years ago, it’s not as if Escalades went from status symbol to financial prison overnight.
I had a coworker who traded her Honda Civic for a brand new Lincoln Navigator shortly before the economy tanked. She complained every day that it would cost her more to take a hit on selling the thing than to keep paying for gas while making her hour long commute to work.
It was a common story. My friend bought a CPO Escalade (a decision I disagreed with) and went deep underwater almost immediately when it hit the fan. If he had bought new he would have been even deeper over his head.
It was very difficult for me not to gloat in his presence.
But what’s GM gonna do? They basically quit the car business, and the only remotely small vehicles they sell are from GM/Korea. Those (Trax, etc) have tariffs. It’s not like they left themselves plenty of option for offering smaller, cheaper, or more fuel efficient vehicles.
Bring back the Cavalier….. will run shitty longer than most cars run, with good MPG! Be sure to offer the smokers package too.
The sad truth is that Pepperidge Farm does not actually remember.
24mpg is *wildly* inefficient when a Camry or Altima is 40 or higher. Just because it’s better than the 18 an old Exploder got doesn’t make it good, or that the Taurus was an inefficient poorly designed boat. Put that much higher tech drivetrain from the current Exploder in the Taurus and it would do better than the Exploder. As would a Taurus WAGON that would do 95% of what people actually use Exploders for, without the fuel economy penalty.
Fuel prices aren’t even THAT high historically speaking. But the prices of trucks and SUVs are bloody stupid today, which is the real issue, not the price to fill them up.
But gas having shot up due to the idiocy of literally one man is an even more serious issue.
Came here to say almost the same. My old Kia Rio — ~24,000 lbs — gets 35 MPG (measured at the pump) while a co-worker in a new Highlander hybrid — ~4,500 lbs — gets the same MPG.
The coworker would see 57 mpg city / 56 mpg if he bought a Prius, but didn’t because “SUV.”
And no, Dear Leader, the world isn’t any safer today. But food and fuel cost more, so you accomplished something.
What??
2400, I think, according to the internet.
Whoops! I meant one long ton, and not 10.
“24,000 lbs” That’s the new BMW…
I had a 90s Tercel that got 39 on a trip to Dallas, really pissing off a coworker with a new hybrid Escape. The GTI is running 38 MPG this tank, up to 44 highway, it’s the city that kills it.
As someone who recently went from a 93 Civic to a 12 Prius, I can tell you that vintage mpg numbers and modern mpg numbers are not the same. My Civic would match the Prius’ MPG – if the weather was right, the traffic was steady, and the tires were topped up. The Civic’s mpg would drop by a quarter to a third if it were raining, and if the highway had a hard time deciding if it wanted to be 50 or 70, I could count on maybe half. The Prius never really sees less than 40mpg, even under the worst conditons.
My ’14 Mazda3 averages 38 mpg.
I just wish we had the smaller engines they sell elsewhere in the world, where you can get 50+ mpg without trying.
That the media, this outlet included, continue to make excuses for this nonsense is really starting to irritate me. If the automakers made BOTH choices so we actually had a choice, I wouldn’t care, but they have managed to convince the idiot public that sitting up high and AWD that they might need a few hours a year is worth an extra $5K and a big hit on efficiency.
I’m old enough to remember the last time gas prices drove down truck sales and then… they were back with a vengeance.
It is ironic people complaining about $7 diesel with an $80K truck..
Like owning a mansion and complaining about the electric bill.
People have VERY short memories, and paying many thousands to save a most at couple hundred is the definition of stupid. Arrange your life to drive less, and drive what ya got until you need something different for a better reason. Then be smarter about what you buy.
Don’t forget to mention that of the 49,000 cars Canada will allow in from China, half must be priced below C$35,000 – or about US$25,000. That’s probably why Trump is interested. GM is ready with very agressive pricing. With rebates and discounts, Chevy Bolts are available here for about C$33,000, or just under US$24,000, and the Equinox EV for under C$40,000, or under US$29,000. That puts the Equinox EV at the same price as the Equinox ICE.
In Quebec, you have both provincial and federal EV rebates, and a deep hatred of Elon Musk. Sales are so good you can’t throw a rock without breaking an Equinox EV window.
Are fuel prices really hitting harder than ever before? When gas was $4 in 2007-2009 wasn’t that harder when average low end wages were $7-8?
I believe that was for a much shorter period. I may be wrong because I was in college and not driving much but I know that by the time fall semester was over gas was back to normal prices. While prices have trended down in the recent weeks we’re still months (if not over a year) away from sub $3 gas again due to damage on infrastructure. I’m also not sold this deal will stick and in reality it’s not a deal but a promise of a deal.
It’s the idea of a concept of a deal. Is it Tuesday yet?
“Tuesday has no feel”
-Newman
Wish I had a comeback, but didn’t get into Seinfeld, The Simpsons, Family Guy, or Curb your Enthusiasm.
Best I can do is; Tuesday,’s grey, … Tuesday break my heart, … Tuesday heart attack, … “Friday I’m In Love“ – The Cure
Concept of a deal…
The Art of a Concept
The Art of the Decept.
I’m sure they hit pretty hard back then, but we must also consider that back then an unexpected increase in cost of living would be impinging on the average person’s disposable income, whereas now it takes them from “surviving paycheck to paycheck” to “rapidly accruing debt”.
Not including those who lost their job during the crash, that’s an entirely different exacerbating circumstance that comes with its own challenges.
The majority of people I was around at the time were living paycheck to paycheck. Lots of super interesting vehicle swapping choices at the time too to “save money”. I suppose maybe that skewed my personal perspective.