One of our biggest stories last week was a report about a study that showed 46% of EV owners in the United States say they’re going to go back to a gas-powered car. At the time I wrote the story, I lacked an actual copy of the study, so I was just going on what was already reported.
After posting the story I got a lot of feedback from people stating it was “fake news” and wanting to get more details on how the study was done, with a lot of chatter on X/Twitter over the findings.
I’ve now got a copy of the McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse (MMCP) study, produced by McKinsey’s Center for Future Mobility (MCFM), and I now have a lot of answers to the various questions people had about the study.
What Is This Study? Who Answered The Questions?
The report, which I will refer to as the MFCM study, surveyed more than 30,000 respondents globally who “regularly use mobility” and asked more than 200 questions about mobility, car ownership, and consumer preferences.
McKinsey is a massive consulting firm and “mobility” is of interest to governments, investors, and large companies (all of which buy services from firms like McKinsey). Specifically, the company says the MCFM:
“[H]as worked with stakeholders across the mobility ecosystem by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future-mobility scenarios. With our unique, bottom-up modeling approach, our insights enable an end-to-end analytics journey through the future of mobility—from consumer needs to a modal mix across urban/rural areas, sales, value pools, and life cycle sustainability.
Since 2021, the survey has included consumers from the 15 biggest auto markets (ranging from massive markets like the United States and China to smaller ones like Norway and South Africa). Overall, the countries included account for more than 80% of global sales volume.
According to the MFCM, the survey was conducted in February of this year.
Where Did That 46% Number Come From?
Here’s the question that was asked of current EV owners:
How likely are you to switch back to a traditional combustion engine vehicle based on your current experience with the electric vehicle you own?
Globally, the average number is about 29%, but you can see the full chart here:
The country where someone is most likely to switch back to an internal combustion engine-powered car is Australia, at almost half, followed by the United States and Brazil. The reasoning?
I don’t have a breakdown for American consumers, but globally the biggest reasons for switching back were:
- Total cost of ownership too high (34.5%)
- Cannot charge at home (33.8%)
- Needing to worry about changing is too stressful (31.9%)
As someone who regularly borrows electric cars but cannot charge at home, I can relate to this. Public charging simply isn’t good enough for me and I live in a relatively dense urban environment.
More People Than Ever Want EVs Globally, They Just Want Them To Be Cheaper
The largest barrier to ownership might be practical concerns around charging, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t interested in electric cars. The number of respondents globally who say that they’re going to purchase a BEV (battery electric vehicle) for their next car grew to 17.6% this year, up from 14% in December of 2021.
Overall, 70% of respondents said they’d either be getting a BEV or PHEV next or, at the very least, only expected to own one more gas-powered car before switching over to an electric car.
That, too, conforms with my experience as I plan to buy a hybrid and then, hopefully, an electric car if charging around me improves.
Still, the reasons why people haven’t switched over yet have a lot to do with the fact that EVs are too expensive in most places. The top reasons given for not wanting to switch were:
- Too expensive (45%)
- Charging concerns (33%)
- Driving range concerns (29%)
Obviously, the “expensive” issue is geography dependent. In China, there are plenty of affordable electric cars so only 9% of EV skeptics interviewed there were worried about cost of ownership. Norway was the only other country that low, at 29% of EV skeptics, but Norway has become the largest EV market proportionally due to extremely high subsidies for electric cars.
And, going deeper into consumers in the United States, many are likely to postpone a new EV purchase because of “the current economic situation” as you can see in this graphic:
This isn’t just in the EV market. The average age of American cars is now 14 years as people hold onto their cars, EV or ICE, a lot longer. There are many ways to interpret “the current economic situation” and I think a lot of it has to do with higher uncertainty and higher interest rates.
People Also Want More Range
Here’s an interesting tidbit from the study:
Range expectations have been increasing over time (+ ~30% in the past 5 years) and are outpacing actual range improvements: Since 2022 consumers demand 5% more range, while actual range increased by only 2%
As of the most recent study, people expect at least 291 miles of maximum range, on average, before they’d consider getting a new electric car. This is a little higher than many vehicles currently for sale, but it puts quasi-affordable vehicles like the Tesla Model Y, Mach-E, and Equinox EV on the table.
I Don’t Think This Is Entirely Bad News
If you love electric cars or think everyone should be driving an electric car then this is not what you want to hear. It’s hard enough to get someone to switch to an electric car and hearing that almost half of owners in the United States want a gas-powered car isn’t encouraging.
The study didn’t ask if those people would consider buying a hybrid or a PHEV when going back to a gas-powered car, but that’s not an unreasonable assumption (especially if those owners have access to home charging).
While there are many good electric cars on the market, the next generation of EVs will hopefully better meet range requirements and cost less money. If automakers can deliver a little more range for a little less money then new consumers seem to be there according to this study.
At the same time, it’s important for the industry and the government to work together to solve charging issues, especially in denser urban corridors.
Infrastructure is the key word. The building that houses my employer setup a solar array specifically to power the HVAC and free L2 chargers as a perk. Zero cost for fuel finally pushed me to getting BEV and several other co-workers have also got either a BEV or battery hybrid as a result, and all are happy. As I am too lazy to setup a L2 home charger the combination of free fuel through the weekdays and using my slow 110 (during off peak hours) at home is enough to make it my primary vehicle. As a note, a DC fast charger is available within 2 miles but use comes to higher cost than with gasoline so patience is required to realize savings.
I can understand the regret when those that purchased did not plan properly but lack of foresight effects all possible purchases.
I only hope that the power monopolies finally decide to invest in their infrastructure so the alternative powered vehicles can become more accessible, then our transportation use will fuel more job growth locally to create and distribute the power.
Yeah EV applicability still varies a lot per person’s situation. Cities and some suburban areas, it makes a lot of sense (depending a bit on the cost of power). Apartment complexes with expensive/hard-to-find recharge nearby – not so much.
Frankly there’s no excuse for why we don’t have more bolt-like ($26k) cars. Where I live, that’s $8 to recharge at home. Tires with 60k warranty are $760/set (MICHELIN CrossClimate2 for a bolt).
Acceleration used to be a luxury, and now it’s so much more available on an EV. I want to see some EV hot hatches.
We were early adopters of home solar panels. I leased a 2013 Leaf and then a 2016 Leaf. I switched back to an ICE car for several reasons. I was debating whether to go back to an electric car… until we received our most recent electric bills. Evidently, with Southern California Edison, once you have had solar for 20+ years, you LOSE your preferential billing. We’re now on a totally different plan where our distribution charges for one month are close to our entire 2023-24 yearly bill for the electricity generation. We’re also now only earning a penny per KwH on generation. We produced a third more energy than we consumed but still had a bill around $250 for one month. Half of that bill was for generation! I don’t know how you have negative generations but you’re still charged around $125 a month. It’s new math.
I don’t see how this push to electrify everything (home appliances, even pool heaters) is going to be feasible and it will definitely be more expensive. I don’t see an electric car in my future.
Net Energy Metering 3.0 is the trouble. Edison and PG&E convinced the California state government to disincentivize residential solar unless there’s battery storage attached. It’s ridiculous, and it’s killed the residential solar sales and installation industry in the state.
It kind of makes sense. The “duck curve” in CA is really strong to the point that there’s basically zero demand for any additional solar generation and lots of net demand right around sundown. Hopefully as storage ramps up and improves it’ll improve drastically, but that could be 5-10 years to really settle out.
Infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure. Folks buying $50k+ EVs are more likely to be able to charge at home than those shopping the sub 30k market, without ubiquitous and reliable charging the take rate is going to be low and the regret rate will be high. Also, at least for now, range is a big cost factor so cheaper cars will need better infrastructure to be viable.
Anecdotally – BEV adoption boils down to 1 issue. I can pull up to a gas station, of which multiple options usually exist mitigating crowds/wait, go from ‘E’ to ‘F’ in 5 minutes and be on my way. When charging capabilities & infrastructure get there….I’ll grab my checkbook.
“As of the most recent study, people expect at least 291 miles of maximum range, on average, before they’d consider getting a new electric car. This is a little higher than many vehicles currently for sale, but it puts quasi-affordable vehicles like the Tesla Model Y, Mach-E, and Equinox EV on the table.”
Last I remember, Car and Driver tested a Model Y long range at 220 miles of highway range, assuming you drive it to empty which no one would.
It seems like there’s quite a bit of work to be done before 291 miles of actual highway range happen, and even then, the test is done at 75mph, which gets you run off the road in I95 in NJ.
I guess you tell your kid to become an electrification apprentice or an electrical engineer if you got a smart one.
It’s weird how “needing more engineers” never translates to better pay for engineers.
While I would love higher pay, our new grads start at $75k because of how engineer salaries have been rising to meet the needs. That’s a heck of a start for your early 20s with no professional experience.
Your starting salaries look to be about twice what we pay mechanical engineering graduates.
Maybe this is why the UK is garbage.
I’m a sample of one who fits the results of the survey but for different reasons. My wife had a ’14 Mustang GT that she loved, but she found it increasingly difficult to drive with its manual transmission. In 2021, I convinced her to trade it (straight up) for a loaded ’15 BMW i3 REX. I enjoyed it, in spite of its limited range, as our second, around-town “backup” car. Unfortunately, she hated it and made it pretty clear that she missed her Mustang. Last year, we tracked down a similar, ’13 GT, only with an automatic, so we traded in the i3 and got her her “dream car” back.
After a couple of years, the i3 had exhausted its warranty and its roof was starting to delaminate (a known issue), so I wasn’t too disappointed to see it go. Plus, after a couple of years of some unexpected expenses (tires, insurance, local EV fees) any savings on “fuel” were more than being offset by all of the other expenses.
Will we do another EV, PHEV, or a hybrid at some time in the future? Probably, especially when we scale down to having just one vehicle. But, for now, all of the new EVs are too expensive and depreciating far too rapidly while the used options are pretty limited. The Leaf and the Teslas are instant nopes, the Bolts are possibilities, and the Asian options are evolving too rapidly to be viewed as good long-term purchases.
don’t have a driveway and it would be too expensive to install a pedestal charger outside at my driveway. haven’t got any serious quotes but materials is close to $2,000 and that’s assuming i don’t have to upgrade any outside breaker or anything. unfortunately driveway is on the opposite side of the power meter. when they built this house in the 60s nobody considered electric cars would ever be a thing lol. I don’t drive nearly enough for the switch to an EV to make any sort of economic sense.
How close is the nearest wall outlet? My Chevy Bolt gets about 50 miles of range a day from a standard wall outlet. That wouldn’t work for the trucks, they’re too inefficient, but people underestimate how well regular outlets work. A 25 foot charging cable cures a lot of ills
Fair enough. EV’s don’t solve everyone’s problems. If it’s just the charger cost, some power companies (like mine) will reimburse EV charger install costs.
I would be far more likely to purchase a BEV if it had ubiquitous charging options at hotels. If the vehicle has enough range for about six hours of driving and hotels have easy charging options, this would dramatically increase the usability for me.
Also comfort is an issue. I have yet to ride in a Tesla (yes, including multiple different model S’s and X’s; they’re popular with work colleagues) that are as comfortable at distance as something as simple as an RDX Advance (desperately needs a solid hybrid option). I do not give a shit how fast it goes 0-60 or 0-100. If I don’t ever want to drive the thing more than a basic commute due to ride quality and overall interior experience, I’ll take a similarly valued 911 (or many other options) thanks anyway.
I’d be willing to pay a small premium for that but not double digit percentages of a similar Hybrid. I probably would have bit on that Honda E we couldn’t get in the states had it been available and reasonable enough ($30k probably would have done it for me) to pay for half it’s savings commuting as a third vehicle and replace the “toy” car for something with multiple functions. I don’t think we’re close enough on price and support yet though for that kind of vehicle with that kind of price.
So I guess for me, it’s infrastructure and relative cost to competition. I would like to thank all the Tesla et al adopters for helping pave the way. Sincerely, no sarcasm. I’m just not there yet.
I think we need the equivalent of the VW Beetle wrt to basic cheap transportation in the electric world. No it doesn’t have to have 500 mile range. Cheap cute and fun and the revolution will occur. These obscenely expensive electrics remind me of trickle down economics. That is they don’t effing work unless you are wealthy. Wes flash car makers. A lot of us are not obscenely wealthy.
funny you mention that. the domestic automakers have no interest in building that and china wants to export them the the USA but our legislature decided to put huge tariffs on exactly that.
Part of that is because of the risk of forced labor in their supply chain and the high subsidies* allowing their products to be sold below cost.
I wish those problems didn’t exist and we could get Chinese cheap EVs
*Everyone subsidizes their EVs, but China does it an order of magnitude higher than anyone else. The EU tariffs are more in line with correcting those advantages that the USA tariffs.
I would really like to buy an electric car, but not any of the electric cars that are for sale right now.
An electric car that followed the same design philosophy as the checker cab, or a Volvo 240 except for the tank like dimensions would be just about right.
Currently the automobile industry seems to base its business model on fucking over whoever owns their product as soon as it is out of warranty and paid off whether it is conventional or electric, so I’m not actually interested in any new cars for that reason too.
> “people who use mobility”
Ffs that “mobility” language needs to die
So includes buses, subways, rollerskates, and escalators?
As opposed to people who never leave their home?
It really just means cars, but “mobility” sounds like you’re smart.
Hmm, those people that take investors’ money and use it to leave big piles of electric scooters on sidewalks referred to themselves as mobility providers. Completely unironically apparently.
I hate those gf things. When a mott et on leaves one on the bike path I truly think. Bout stopping. As bd pitching it into the woods or a ravine
About stopping and pitching it into …
It boggles my mind how many people bought EVs that couldn’t charge at home. I have two EVs, but if I didn’t have access to dedicated charging overnight, I would never have considered one.
Being able to charge at home with a 240V, 48A charger (11.5kW), I can easily charge my car from 0-100% overnight. With my driving habits, I charge about once a week in my garage, and it’s ready for another week of driving.
I only use public chargers a few times a year on longer trips.
Yeah it’s really night & day for whether you can charge at home.
I live in the northeast, with one of the most expensive electric suppliers. It would be cheaper to fuel a camry hybrid tham charge an ev at home at the current ev rate of $0.37/kwh and the current gas price at $3.04
double check your math bro.
Easy enough to do using the EPAs side by side comparator:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=44350&id=45013&#tab1
At $0.37/kWh it would cost $2.17 to drive a 132 MPGe 2022 Tesla 3 RWD 25 miles.
At $3.04/gallon it would cost $1.46 to do the same in a 52 MPG 2022 Camry hybrid.
So yeah, as far as just gas vs electricity goes the math checks out.
It also checks out in NorCal so not just the Northeast. PGE charges between $0.34-$0.66/kWh for home EV charging depending on time of day. Meanwhile I filled up today at $4.17/gallon so still a bit cheaper than overnight home Watts.
Of course you need to factor in other things as well:
Cost differences between the cars
Insurance
Cost to buy, install and maintain charger
Cost to maintain car
Low cost (or free) charging (home solar, free workplace charging, etc)
Taxes
Fees
Convenience/hassle
Etc.
$0.37/kwh.
Tesla model 3 is rated at 4.17 miles per kwh
Thats $0.0887 per mile
$3.04/gal regular
Camry hybrid is 44-53mpg depending on trim
Lets be charitable and say 40 mpg (also makes the math easier)
Thats $0.076 per mile.
And yes, camry needs oil changes, but will be easier on tires. Honestly, maintenance has been shown to be at best a wash.
The model 3 is $36,490 after rebates if i make enough to get it all. Im self employed, so two years ago i would have… last year, not so much.
Camry is 28,855 to start.
Its not cheaper in the short nor the long.
Now, if I could get solar…the math changes. I’d honestly think more about phev as a hedge against higher electricity and/or gas prices as I feel both are destined for roller coasters, and I could offset 90% of my carbon for daily travel with a much lower materials mining cost to the environment.
…bro.
And that 8K difference buys a whole lot of petrol. In fact 2000 gallons at 4 buck a pop. In the Camry you just received 80,000 free miles of mobility by not buying electric. The cost accountant in me has spoken.
Whereabouts? NJ is $0.13/kwh and $0.11/kwh at night.
Unitil in MA/NH.
Eversource just announced a 41% price hike
New England gets most of our electricity from natural gas.
They killed the plan to add LNG at fall river.
They killed adding a gas line over land.
NH and ME have blocked connecting us to cheap Quebec hydro.
The Kennedy’s fight offshore wind.
Solar has expanded, but the amount of forests limit the area we can build out.
Oh dude I’m sorry that sucks.
Since I am likely needing to spend $60k on one vehicle, that cannot be a EV due to the need to fuel in the sticks, I won’t be buying an EV any time soon for my other car unless the price of used Bolts falls through the floor. Like $10k in decent shape.