With all the doom-and-gloom headlines around EVs in America, you can be forgiven for thinking that the sky is falling. Honda writing down its 0 Series models, GM pulling back investment on next-generation EV trucks, Hyundai scaling back Ioniq 6 plans. Legislative changes last year really did put a dent in electric car sales, but according to J.D. Power, the other side of the dip might be just around the corner.
At the same time, GM is absolutely raking it in, the Tesla Cybertruck really isn’t living up to sales expectations, and Range Rover is launching an electric coupe-SUV-type-thing. Welcome back to The Morning Dump, where we break down the morning’s car news headlines for your perusal. Let’s get cracking.
The EV Dip Might Just Be A Blip
It’s been a rough past 12 months for electric cars in America. From disappearing incentives to cancelled models, the industry is undergoing a thorough recalibration. However, this adjustment doesn’t mean that EVs are dead in America. J.D. Power’s latest EV Volumes study is out, and it claims that a bounce-back in EV sales might happen quicker than many expected. While market share for 2026 is expected to dip from 9.4 percent to 8.2 percent, this may just be a blip.
In 2027, 15.6% year-over-year growth in new EV sales is expected across the US. In turn, the EV share is projected to rise to 9.3%. This is forecast to nearly double to 18.1% in 2030, reaching 36.8% in 2035 and 56.2% in 2040.
Alright, so a few interesting claims to unpack here. The study combines battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales, and saying they’ll nearly return to 2025 levels in 2027 seems like a bold prediction, but there’s some substance to back it up. The war in Iran has resulted in a prolonged period of instability in global oil markets, running up the cost of gasoline at the pumps. This in turn has led to a bump in second-hand EV resale values, with more consumers looking to save on running costs. With the national average price of a gallon of gasoline sitting above $4 again per AAA’s fuel price tracker, going electric might be more of a financial play than anything else. At the same time, 36.8 percent U.S. market share by 2035 is far below the global forecast of 61.3 percent of overall market share. Reading between the lines, expect hybrids to continue playing a significant role for at least another decade as American drivers look to reduce their vehicle running costs.
Interestingly enough, J.D. Power claims Canada’s EV trajectory more closely follows America’s rather than Europe’s, and that has some interesting implications on both impending tailpipe emissions legislation for 2035 and provincial EV mandates.
The wider light-vehicle market is forecast to grow by 3.0% in 2026, with EV sales climbing by 40.2%. This would hand the powertrain pair a 13.1% share. However, this remains below the 13.7% peak recorded in 2024. This is predicted to be surpassed by a 24.1% share in 2030, rising to 42.5% in 2035 and 61.8% in 2040.
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke about plans to tighten fleet average carbon dioxide emissions from 172 grams-per-mile to 74 grams-per-mile by 2035. In theory, that would work out to somewhere around a 68 percent EV mix in 2035 which is well above J.D. Power’s demand forecast of a 42.5 percent EV mix. Will the great EV legislative walk-back continue? Only time will tell.
GM Just Keeps Making Money
For now, having a lineup of both solid EVs and regular cars is likely the safest bet, which helps explain why GM can’t stop winning when it comes to balance sheets. The automaker just beat its earnings forecast for the 16th time in a row, buoyed by a highly profitable product mix, resilient consumer demand, and regulatory easing. As Reuters reports:
The company’s quarterly earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) rose to $3.9 billion from roughly $3 billion a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, it earned $3.57 per share, topping analyst expectations of $3.20, according to LSEG data.
GM raised its 2026 profit outlook by $500 million to a range of $14 billion to $16 billion, after boosting it by the same amount earlier this year.
Those are some significant gains, especially in the wake of new expenses. Onshoring production of models like the Chevrolet Equinox, a reduction in EV sales volumes, “higher software expenses” and tariffs are all expected to add billions in combined costs. However, not only has GM’s North American profit margin improved from 6.1 percent to 8.6 percent, it’s kept the average transaction price of a GM vehicle to around $52,000. This reflects fairly clearly in the Q2 sales report: Sales of the reasonably priced Chevrolet Trailblazer are up 28 percent, the Buick Envista and Chevrolet Trax are more-or-less holding ground, Chevrolet Bolt sales are up, while models like the Chevrolet Corvette and GMC Sierra are also seeing sales gains to level things out. Total U.S. sales are holding within 5 percent year-over-year, and a strong EV lineup’s there for when America’s electric sales dip recovers.
The Tesla Cybertruck Hasn’t Been Having A Great 2026
There’s one long-range EV that probably won’t be leading a market-share comeback, and that’s the Tesla Cybertruck. It’s reportedly not living up to its lofty sales forecasts to the point that Bloomberg is comparing it to the Edsel.
Edsel sales dropped each year the model was on the market, and Ford discontinued the car in 1959. Cybertruck sales are off to an even worse start. Only 7,133 have been registered in the US this year through May, according to S&P Global Mobility data provided to Bloomberg News. That count is buoyed by Musk’s other companies, with SpaceX building out a fleet of Cybertrucks.
Even with fleet sales, that works out to around 1,427 Cybertrucks sold per month this year. Not ultra-low volumes, but certainly not high volumes. That’s just S&P’s data; according to Cox Automotive’s U.S. EV registration tracker, only 7,236 Cybertrucks were registered through the first half of the year.
It’s worth noting that electric pickup sales are pretty much down across the board. The only model to post a sales gain through the first half of 2026 according to Cox Automotive was the GMC Sierra EV with a volume bump of 9.8 percent. Still, it sold fewer than half as many units as the Cybertruck. This year has been tough for Tesla’s truck, as on a year-over-year basis, the only dedicated electric pickup truck to post a larger percentage decline than the Cybertruck was the Ford F-150 Lightning, and it’s been discontinued. Considering Tesla’s initial ambition of 250,000 Cybertruck sales per year, the model doesn’t appear to have met expectations.
Et Tu, Range Rover?
Even though it’s been 18 years since the BMW X6 entered production, it’s still somewhat amazing how less practical, swoopy-roofed crossover SUVs have become a market all their own. In addition to BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Infiniti, Buick and Polestar have all entered the arena, and it’s not done growing yet. This is the Range Rover GT, an incoming heavily-fastbacked model from Land Rover that’s quite unlike anything else we’ve seen from the marque. Partly because of its styling and partly because it rides on a new electric-first architecture.
Obviously, Land Rover hasn’t revealed the entire car, but it has given everyone a camouflaged sneak peek so here’s what we know. The Range Rover GT will launch as a battery electric vehicle first, with flexibility for hybrid powertrains down the road. The wheels are enormous, the interior looks well-appointed if rather minimalist, and it can be had in a four-seat configuration with a console instead of a middle rear seat. Beyond that, range and power and battery pack size remain under wraps. It’s certainly an unusual development, but one that could be a natural successor to the Velar. Regardless, expect more details to surface later this year. Realtors, start your checkbooks.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD:
For some reason, the mood of the morning is “Up In Hudson” by Dirty Projectors. Not sure why, but I can’t complain. This track’s still absolutely fantastic.
The Big Question:
Since price is probably the biggest factor when it comes to most purchases, how have gas prices affected your current car-shopping endeavors? Are you suddenly finding that the math on an EV makes sense?
Top graphic image: Chevrolet
Gas prices generally don’t impact my car choice. I enjoyed driving a 4×4 van that got 10mpg going downhill for a fair bit of the 2010s.
That said, I’ve been waiting for the price of EVs to crater. I’d like to get one to take advantage of the excess energy my solar generates. The Iran quagmire is keeping everyone else interested in gas prices and used EVs.
I was already shopping for an EV to replace my leased EV, so the gas price problems only affect me in that the used EV availability is down and prices are up in my area. Which is annoying. I wanted a smokin’ deal on a car nobody else was interested in, dang it.
We are about to be in a tough place re: car buying. With my wife and I actively trying to have a second kid, her 2015 CRV with 100,000 miles on it is on borrowed time. We’ve gone back and forth on how big of a car we’ll need for two kids and a dog. Like most people she’s convinced we need a three row, while I think we could make a current CRV/Forester hybrid/etc work just fine. Commentariat, we all know who will prevail in the end.
We really want to prioritize a hybrid for her next car but it’s easier said than done. A regular Highlander hybrid would be perfect, but good fucking luck getting one. They’re all spoken for before they even hit lots, Toyota almost exclusively makes the Platinum trim that’s $60,000, etc. She refuses to consider a van and is (correctly) worried about buying a Korean vehicle with a brand new turbo/hybrid powertrain.
Unfortunately we may just be SOL…especially if we won’t make the price delta for the hybrid back in gas savings. We’re conscientious of our carbon footprint, but there comes a point in today’s cursed market that the upcharge for a hybrid is so high that it doesn’t offer any sort of financial case…and with the cost of living, our comfortable but not super high earning careers, two kids, etc. in mind the cheaper all of this is up front the better.
I will happily hear other suggestions, and while I know the Grand Highlander is an option the size feels like overkill to both of us. The CX90 was going to be our choice for a while but they’ve had such significant issues that we’re no longer willing to roll the dice on one.
Right now what I keep coming back to is either:
1). Pilot/Passport
…not at all fuel efficient, but reliable, spacious, low maintenance, high residuals, and low cost of entry. In our area you can get a mid spec version of either with leather seats for $45,000. That’s a lot of car for the money.
2). A certified MDX
…all the positives of the Pilot with a nicer interior, luxury dealership experience, etc. You can get nice ones for the same price as a new Pilot all day every day.
3). A certified XC90 Recharge
This is an objectively awful idea, but we’d get all the hybrid benefits, a nicer interior, more panache, etc. We’d pay to upgrade to the 10 year warranty since shit is inevitably going to go wrong many times over.
My sister just bought a last gen Telluride that seems like a very nice car, but my wife is just not going to be talked into a Korean car. Oh and I’m not interested in an Outback/Ascent because of the damn CVT.
I know this isn’t cool, but shop for a Honda Odyssey EX-L. They are $43k, have leather and plenty of features and are known good powertrain that will last 200k+. They are huge inside, but don’t drive like it.
Pull out one of the center seats. Put the older child in the back and the infant seat in the middle and there will be a big space to fit even a huge dog.
They hold value well and drive nice and you will be teased, but.. who cares, you will have a superior vehicle.
I would be perfectly happy with an Odyssey, unfortunately the wife is staunchly anti-van
Lease a Kia Sportage PHEV. Kia is incentivizing leases right now. The warranty is excellent but you will not need it. Second row is huge. Has a proper transmission for the electric and gas powertrains. At least get her to test drive one. Battery commuting, AWD, fine interior with Carplay, etc. You can get one although I had to wait two weeks. $350 a month $3000 down including taxes all in.
Used R1S? Still stubbornly hovering around the 60s but a lot of car for the money.
The real answer is R2, but no third row.
She’s vaguely open to an R1S but $60,000 is a lot of money
A buddy of mine w/ 2 kids has been going through this, his wife’s Mazda 6 is very much ready for replacement w/ 200K surprisingly trouble free miles on the clock. Ideally he’d want them to get a 3 row hybrid (really just the Grand Highlander) for more room on family adventures but as you say the options are limited and mostly outside their budget, which has gotten him reconsidering if they can make do with a smaller 2 row like a RAV4 Hybrid. I keep telling him can make up some of the lost space if he puts a Thule/Yakima box on top.
My dad’s a low key car guy and had an MDX for a few years and liked it and found it to be pretty low maintenance compared to the various German cars he’s owned. I think they only got rid of it bc my mom thought it drove too big-but she’s in her 70s and a very timid driver in the best of conditions. To your point re: the Volvo, don’t buy without a warranty. My dad also had a 1st gen XC90 years ago and to your point before it got wrecked when someone cut him off on an icy road it was already needing some big ticket warranty items at 70K miles.
Good luck!
Is something wrong with the current Honda? Or do you just like to stay in warranty? I get that a lot of people don’t have the time/inclination/ability/desire to wrench but saying a 100k-mile Honda is used up but a used XC90 is a potential replacement doesn’t quite compute.
We have neither the time nor capacity to wrench. The current Honda is fine but we’ve had to put a couple thousand into it over the past few years and there’s going to come a point when it won’t be worth it to keep sinking money into it anymore.
You missed the certified descriptor with the Volvo. We’d buy an extended warranty and maintenance plan that would run for 10 years.
He’s trying to have a second kid, I read the CR-V issue as soon to be too small, not unreliable.
A financially prudent choice for 3-row seating would be a 10-15 year old USED Honda Odyssey with around 100k on the odo, paid for with cash.
But if that’s not going to fly with the wife, pay the price I guess, and hope neither of you loses your job for the duration of the payment plan.
I recently went through the same thing with my wife last year. She was adamantly against a van to the point where she wouldn’t test drive one….. until she went on a work trip and a minivan was the only available rental car. Suddenly, she saw the light. I was blown away at how quick she stopped looking at Pilots, Grand Highlanders, Tellurides, Grand Cherokee Ls, and Atlases. She kinda realized most of those SUVs look a lot like a minivan with some lipstick, but are just less useful for the day-to-day schlepping of children, so why not just get a minivan? She’d get one again in a heartbeat; the only thing that would lead her to an SUV now is if the budget suddenly grew to accommodate a G Wagon.
That camo wrap on the Range Rover makes it look like it’s been in a battery fire. Just sayin’…
Currently a bit. Not in so far as hybrid vs non hybrid. But the value proposition between plug in vs non plug in Rav 4s. About ~6k difference in price when you include WA state 10% tax. But when gas is still 4.50 or so, and not likely to drop anytime soon with whatever is going on with Iran, the break even comes before 50k miles.
And you get a much more refined and pleasant driving experience for those 50k miles. I think that’s worth something, too.
Yeah. Not having to use gas to commute is a big bonus. plus 320 HP and torque is a fun one for me
It seems obvious that automakers with an “all of the above” multi-powetrain strategy are doing well.
The ones ignoring EVs are bleeding market share in other markets and the ones who went all-in are having to take painful investment losses.
TBQ: The math on an EV has penciled out for a while, but the sheer rate of improvement of EVs is keeping me on the sidelines. Anytime I think a new model is a good fit, someone announces something 30% better coming in 6 months.
I would be looking at short term leases only for that reason.
I’m on my fourth 3-year EV lease for that reason. And each one has been at least a 20% improvement for essentially the same price. And I’ve had a nice new car the whole time.
From what I’ve been hearing, even when things settle down the 3.50 – 4.00 gas prices are likely here to stay, so that may be a factor in my next purchase.
I don’t regret my recent truck purchase (Nov 2025), but I may consider mileage more when shopping for its replacement.
I’m hoping my situation will change to one where charging an EV is more practical, because I REALLY like the Rivian R2. I miss certain things about my 4Runner, and the R2 would fill that role PERFECTLY.
I always appreciate seeing Hundal’s name on TMD because I know he’ll pick a song I don’t know and it’s always worth hearing, even if I’d never buy it (or ever want to hear it again). Today is no exception: I have no idea who these people are, but it’s a very well-produced ditty that surprisingly even at nearly eight minutes doesn’t overstay its welcome. I look forward to (and might actually look for) more Dirty Projectors. Thanks Thomas!
I’m only interested in the Slate. It would be my work daily 5 days a week, could charge at home, and have 3 other fun cars for zoom zoom stuff. Wouldn’t hurt to not buy as much gas anymore, especially 93 octane.
“Interestingly enough, J.D. Power claims Canada’s EV trajectory more closely follows America’s rather than Europe’s,”
I expect Canada to diverge from the USA in the coming years as the Canadian market gradually opens more and more to Chinese EV makers.
And as a Canadian, I fully support this given how the incumbant automakers in Canada that build cars here (Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford, Stellantis) have mostly been dragging their asses with bringing affordable BEVs to market (except for GM).
And I would love it if BYD came here and started building cars here.
“Since price is probably the biggest factor when it comes to most purchases, how have gas prices affected your current car-shopping endeavors”
I have always bought the most fuel efficient vehicle that suited my needs because I remember the fuel price spikes of the past. It’s not a question of if it will happen again, but when.
That was my thinking the last time I was in the market (in 2024).
I wanted to go with an EV… a 2014 Tesla Model S to be exact. Was all set to buy it but didn’t when I got the insurance quote… CAD$4500/year. And that was with shopping around for insurance.
So I bought a C-Max Energi plug in hybrid instead… which gives me about 75% of the BEV benefits, but with an insurance rate of only CAD$1500/year.
And back then, decent used BEVs weren’t as abundant or affordable.
But my next vehicle purchase is very likely to be a BEV… especially with used Chevy Bolts with low mileage getting to be pretty cheap on the used market.
Gas prices affected me a bit last year when I got the Miata before trading that in for the Polestar 2. But also the fun factor played into it if I could not get a fun car with a stick that could get over 30mpg I was going to get an EV the only thing that really struck the manual/30+mpg was the Miata (which I had for ~6months) but once that 3rd gear syncro went and the trans was replaced that was traded in for the Polestar and after having that I am going to find it really hard to go back to a non-EV for a daily driver unless again it is a fun stick shift that gets good mpgs. Just a note my commute is almost 100 miles a day so in a year well over 20k miles on my probably even over 25k miles so good mpgs or kwh/mi plays a decent affect into it.
Just hoping more fun EV’s start coming out not all these big CUV/SUV type blob mobiles.
I feel like it’s always the 3rd gear synchro that is the shittiest one on all my cars.
Zero car shopping endeavors until something comes out that is of interest, but it has been almost 9 years since I realized that getting a (cheap) new EV would basically pay for itself in fuel and maintenance savings over an assumed 200,000 mile lifetime. 125,000 miles in, and so far it is following that expectation.
In an alternative world where CUVs and SUV are the default regular vehicles, hordes of commentators in enthusiasts websites show their disappointment and anger at this so called new breed of lower vehicles (so-called ‘cars’) trying to replace what is objectively best what a four wheeled vehicle should be.
“Why is Range Rover building this ‘car’? Surely it is for the people who don’t know best and are only trying to impress neighbours and onlookers. They are bringing down our beloved vehicles! And only because of market demand and because they want to increase profit! Heresy! Suddenly these ‘cars’ will be everywhere!”
I’ve been dailying a used Camry hybrid for 8 years now. It is the way with current infrastucture and my personal parking situation. Daughter has a Prius.
A British electric car, the jokes write themselves.
Gas prices gave not affected my choice of getting a pickup at all because any of the ones I’d choose today gets better mileage than the one I have now.
It’s wild the economy pickups are getting these days, especially the fullsizes.
My Ram 1500 crew cab 4×4 Hurricane on 33’s gets better mileage than my old V6 4Runner.
TBQ: I just paid off my CX-30 Turbo, and have no desire to replace it. I’m working on getting my Tundra ready to sell, not because of gas prices but because I no longer need it, and the cash would get me into something much more enjoyable as a backup car.
Regardless, if/when I am in the market for a new Daily, cost of fuel won’t be the driving factor, it’ll largely be feature set and EV availability. If the R3X is all it’s claimed to be, that’ll be the very top one on my list. I’d like an EV daily next for the combo of at-home chagrining, lower maintenance, and cheaper speed. I only do maybe a half-dozen trips exceeding 250 miles a year, so the compromise is a no brainer.
If you have the V8 it’ll be an easy sell.
It’s an ’07 with the unkillable 4.7 2UZ, and ~110k miles plus recent Timing Belt and Water Pump, so i’m not too concerned. Bed cap and TRD Offroad pack is a plus, but the paint it pretty horrible, clearcoat is half gone. Just got a new windshield in, about to get tires and an inspection done and then we’re off to marketplace! Figure I list it at around 75-85% of KBB and see what happens.
Sound like a good plan.
I don’t generally comment to correct typos and don’t care to be pedantic, but I would like to highlight that the phrase, “at-home chagrining” just made my day.
Just make the Range Rover GT a damn Jaguar shooting brake for Christ’s sake. Some of us buy SUV’s for the room and actual boxy, useful shape.
I was thinking the same thing. It looks an awful lot like a lifted Jaguar 001.
EV’s started making sense when I drove some modern sports cars, the throttle mapping and gear ratios convinced me that I’d rather drive something that doesn’t have to disobey my inputs for emissions/noise regs, even if it doesn’t make engine noises.
For now, I’m sticking with my quarter-century-old cable-throttle daily, but when turn-of-the-century cars start to get a bit too rare to commute in, and assuming mainstream manufacturers start to release competent single-motor 4-seaters under 3500lb, I’ll start looking forward to buying one used as a commuter so the fun car can be spared for good weather and road trips.
Are you asking about my car-shopping endeavors or are you asking about what makes sense?
Just a reminder that trading a 30 mpg car driven 12,000 miles a year for a $50,000 EV would take more than 30 years to pay off, even if you got electricity for free.
Buying something new to save money on fuel is almost never a winner financially.
No, but if one is shopping anyway, it may be enough to swing the decision.
I don’t think the question focussed specifically on new EV purchasing.
The first topic is all about new EV sales, it’s not crazy to assume the question follows from that.
Reduce the numbers accordingly and the underlying logic is similar unless the EV purchase is extremely cheap.
I think if you are looking for a new car currently and comparing Ice/hybrid to an EV it makes sense if gas prices vs electric will play into it. Now just looking for a new car because of gas prices never makes sense.
Financial math is hard for many people. Generally, for many, it’s all about the monthly payment, not total outlay.
Recently, we did get rid of my lower MPG vehicle that was having some intermittent trans glitches for a newer car for my Wife…and I took over her older car, so I picked up about 80 more miles extra per similar fill up now, albeit, less HP on tap.
This comment should be pinned.
I found that the spirit of the question seems to be assuming you would be shopping anyway so at this point does the cost difference between the two types of vehicles now make more sense with the volatility of gas prices and the future outlook being… not as great.
Your logic isn’t something I can argue with but perhaps the underlying assumption isn’t accurate. Of course, it could be made more clear in the question but the first portion of the question asking about shopping in a more general sense led me to my own assumptions.
You’re not alone, I took the question the same way. “If you’re in the market, has the math changed for you?” Not “Are you in the market because of the running costs.”