The year is almost over and, barring a snowpocalypse, 2023 will end at around 15.5 million new vehicles sold in the United States. This is a huge improvement over 2022, when supply constraints and concerns about the economy resulted in under 14 million sales. What will 2024 Bring?
This is the question worth asking today and, in particular, it’s the question worth asking after the Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates and signaled that rate cuts might come next year. At some point. Probably. Maybe.
Should we talk about Mary Barra? Let’s talk about Mary Barra. The GM CEO is shuffling things up ahead of 2024, which seems like good timing. The same goes for Cruise as GM’s self-driving company saw a huge reshuffle this week.
David’s in Hong Kong. Jason is in bed. Thomas is… somewhere. TMD is gonna be a little later today but a little awesome-r. It’s still morning in Hong Kong, right?
I’m Just Gonna Say It: 16 Million Sales In 2024
There are so many ways 2024 can go wrong. There’s the threat of a war in the Middle East that could spread to the rest of the globe, the tenuous rapprochement between China and the United States could crumble, we could experience another global pandemic, and the ever-present threat of a massive weather disaster is always there. Man, that’s bleak, but I now regularly interact with Mets fans who, collectively, have an imagination for catastrophe that would make Nostradamus dry rip beta blockers.
I don’t know. I’m feeling positive.
My gut tells me that it could be ok and, if it is ok, the car market in the United States and globally could have a stronger rebound than expected.
Let’s look at the generally accepted reasons for why the car market dropped from its run of >17 million sales from 2015 to 2019 and what’s changed.
- The Pandemic: While COVID-19 will probably never go away, daily life has clearly returned to almost normal almost everywhere.
- Supply Chain: The supply chain was a whole thing during the pandemic, but automakers are reporting fewer issues. The long-running Automotive News microchip tracker shows the industry is ending the year with a nominal number of vehicles delayed by chip shortages.
- Economic Fears: Unlike Nate Silver, I’m pretty sure I can read a chart, and the chart I’m interested in is the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers. This shows that consumer confidence is rising as the long-feared recession… doesn’t seem to have happened.
- Affordability: This is an issue and remains one, but the market’s consistent year-over-year price decreases for the first time in a decade are a promising sign.
What do the experts think?
S&P Global Mobility released its first 2024 forecast and it includes this bit on the United States:
US sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9 million units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0% from the projected 2023 level of 15.5 million units.
“Just when the auto industry is looking to return to a sense of normalcy from the supply side of the equation, US consumers in the market for new vehicle in 2024 will continue to face affordability issues by way of high interest rates, tight credit conditions and slow-to-recede new vehicle prices,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. “An uncertain consumer translates to an expectation of a mildly progressing auto sales environment next year.”
“With an assumption that auto production levels will continue to advance in 2024, growth of new vehicle inventory presents the opportunity for rising incentive levels and deal making – a potential release valve to the vehicle price pressures realized over the last year,” Hopson added.
I sometimes inadvertently mind-meld with CarDealershipGuy and this morning he had a similar question and included this interesting tidbit from Tyson Jominy:
A huge part of the automotive industry narrative lately has focused on pricing as a deterrent for buyers—things are just too expensive right now. In fact, Tyson Jominy, vice president for data and analytics at J.D. Power, estimated there are “2 million sales on the sideline” because of a mix of inventory, interest rate issues, and…you guessed it, pricing.
That sounds accurate. Also, one of the biggest hurdles to pricing is interest rates and we got some good-ish news there yesterday. Maybe some of those 2 million people come off the sidelines?
Interest Rates Didn’t Go Up!
Yesterday would have been a good day to look at your 401k. Actually, today isn’t bad either. What’s the reason? The Federal Reserve had its big happy fun time announcement and they didn’t announce more rate hikes again. In fact, they hinted that in 2024 they might lower rates a bit.
Ohhhhhhh.
That’s good news. That’s real good news.
Auto loan rates were already coming down pre-announcement, with the average new car loan dropping to 9.6% from nearly 10% in October. Theoretically, this means that rates should further drop. Of course, it’s not just rates that impact the loan you get, as Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive pointed out this morning:
We could see rates remain high or even increase from where they are today because of the continuing liquidation of the Fed’s balance sheet, otherwise known as Quantitative Tightening (QT), combined with substantial new debt issuance by the U.S. Treasury. The Fed has not communicated any plans to stop or change the pace of that runoff.
However, the economy has resisted a recession thus far. With lower prices on new vehicles and depreciation returning to used vehicles, affordability has modestly improved despite the increase in rates. Affordability limits demand, but affordability should improve more in 2024 as prices continue to fall thanks mostly to discounts and incentives and as rates hopefully begin to decline as well. It is now a question of when that starts and by how much.
“When” is, indeed, the question that remains to be answered. If the Fed holds off until later in the year it may not create that much relief for consumers. Still, I think this is another reason why the market can beat 16 million sales in 2024.
There’s Something About Mary (Barra)
That’s a dumb joke, but I’m going to go with it, because as of January 2024 General Motors CEO Mary Barra will have been at the helm for 10 years. She’s the longest-serving GM CEO outside of the venerable Alfred P. Sloan, and Sloan didn’t have to deal with Elon Musk, Toyota, and the prospect of Shohei Ohtani as a Dodger.
It’s a tough world and, to her credit, Barra has managed to bring the company back from a bankruptcy and through the ignition scandal. I took issue with GM’s decision to buy back shares and promise a bigger dividend last week. I stand by that take for now, but it’s good to hear the other side of it.
Thankfully, Reuters has a nice wrap-up of what’s going on in Barra-land lately:
On Wednesday, GM said Barra has named new heads for key areas of vehicle development and EV manufacturing. The moves come after production technology problems caused GM to fall well short of EV output goals.
“We didn’t execute well this year as it relates to demonstrating our EV capability and the capability of Ultium,” Barra told investors and analysts in a Nov. 29 call, referring to the automaker’s EV battery technology. “So I’m disappointed in that.”
It’s a brand new year and, generally, market watchers seem to think Barra still has the confidence of shareholders to carry the company into the EV age.
Kyle Martin, an analyst with Westwood Group, said Barra is doing better than her rivals and is not in any trouble as the sector is challenging for everyone.
“At the end of the day, the market is the best arbiter,” he said. “That the share price has gone nowhere is an indictment of what she’s doing and to be fair what her competitors are doing as well. You only need a few things to go right to really see a rebound in the stock.”
Officials familiar with Barra’s thinking said the CEO wants to see GM safely through the EV transition. Barra signaled that on Wednesday.
How long is “safely through” the EV transition? Probably 2030. That’s my guess. At the very least it’s longer than a bunch of GM-owned Cruise people have.
The Cruise Bloodbath
The CEO of Cruise ejecto-seat-cuz’d out of the company following an incident where one of those Cruise Robotaxis dragged a pedestrian and the company, allegedly, failed to disclose all related details to regulators.
Now, new President Craig Glidden has taken a hatchet to a lot of the existing staff.
Per Automotive News:
The departures included a swath of senior leadership, including COO Gil West, chief legal officer Jeff Bleich and head of government affairs David Estrada, according to a source familiar with the dismissals.
Additionally, they included Prashanthi Raman, Cruise’s vice president of global government affairs, the source said.
The announcement came via Slack which is, in general, the best-worst way to announce such a thing. Here’s the message, according to AN:
“As a company, we are committed to full transparency and rebuilding trust, and operating at the highest standard when it comes to safety, integrity and accountability,” he wrote in the message. “As a result, we believe new leadership is necessary to achieve these goals.”
The success of Cruise is baked into Barra’s plans to double the company’s revenue, so if it’s broke it is very important to her to fix it.
What I’m Listening To While Writing This:
This is a new thing, but today I’m listening to “Paper Television” by The Blow. I needed something pumpy that wouldn’t distract me.
The Big Question:
How many new cars will be sold in the United States in 2024? Place your markers.
Can I stay employed long enough to buy a Cayenne? LET’S FIND OUT.
If any of you new-car buyers are looking to unload a nice second-gen with a tow package in a cool color, hmm. That’s the sale I care about.
Put me down for 15,787,452 Bob.
15,787,453 Bob!
$1 dollar!
I am betting a drop in new car sales by 5%. The reasons are:
1. Once again the vault has been opened and the UAW has runoff with more money than the Big 3 can afford. So bean counters start your abacusses.
2. Inflation was detered not stopped we will continue to see 9-10% interest rates.
3. During Covid the Big 3 learned maximize profit not units. Shut down any overtime, build what you can on straight time, and if demand is high do a market adjustment to dealers and keep some of that adjustment.
4. Sell every car at full price instead of paying workers OT to build cars to sell at a discount.
5. Frankly if Covid l9 hasn’t taught the auto manufacturers to make smart business decisions they will never learn. Brand loyalty in cars is no longer in existence
I disagree. 2024 will look like 1973. Big numbers.
Well I really hope you are right. But you aren’t.
I’m heading to 70, so I’ve seen a lot. We’ve seen a post Covid world that looks like post- WW 2,and like post OPEC gas embargo. My financial guy and I agreed to move to 70/30 stocks from 60/40. I’m confident we have plus signs next year.
Man, that rage boner against unions is keeping you vigorous.
I give 5 well reasoned economic points and that is what your take is?
The last one is great, the other 4 not so much.
Still batting .200. That’s a nice paycheck in MLB.
I think the consumer market is largely affected by the bipolar politics in the US.
Half the population is believing the country filled with doom, crime and corruption and the other half thinks things are improving rather well.
It is rather strange when you look at the numbers.
Nah, car sales stay flat. The ICE vehicles have more crap to go wrong and the cheaper EV’s aren’t ready yet.
I’m definitely one of those people sitting on the sidelines watching the EV market. There’s no point in buying now since NACS is coming in 2025 along with more desirable and affordable models.
Same here. Keeping my mk8 gti until a GTI EV or something similar comes here, something smaller, fun but more affordable.
2024. . .Both mine and my wife’s vehicles are both getting up in age and miles. We would have normally upgraded by now but are sitting it obvious reasons. When prices/incentives come back into acceptable range, we will upgrade. If that is 2024, great. If not, I can get at least a few more years out of our cars.
Here is my concern with GM. . . if this EV transition lasts longer then they project, are they going to suffer from lack of hybrid availability and development? Especially with such a high exposure to the truck market, where EV’s just don’t have the range to tow, haul, and work. (You can put me in the camp with Toyota on believing the EV revolution is farther out then we think. . .but that would be a longer post.)
Putting on my tin foil hat for a moment, I’m increasingly convinced the alleged coming recession was fabricated by the C-levels at companies to fight back against the sudden leverage workers acquired during the pandemic. I’ve had multiple friends and family ask me if my company is shouting about a recession to justify crappy raises (it’s not, fortunately) like theirs are, but given that there was very little evidence to back that up I can’t help thinking there were some serious ulterior motives in effect.
I’m sure a recession is coming at some point (we’re going on 15 years of basically steady growth), but I’m not convinced the CEO of a random company is going to accurately predict it almost a year in advance. If they could they probably wouldn’t bother working because they’d be making money hand over fist with their brilliant investing.
I work in housing for a small/medium company and there was definitely a slowdown in 2022. Things picked back up slightly this summer.
While lower priced vehicle options are a good thing, let’s be honest here, reduced prices and rates will just mean consumers will buy more car. We’ve seen that pattern for a long time now. The roads will just be full of more trucks. I bet you can easily correlate pricing and financing data with pedestrian fatality data.
This may be true for some, even a majority, but it certainly is not true for me in my current situation, I have been in large part priced out of the new market since I purchased my last econobox in 2018 for $15,000.
Same. We tried the “more car” thing, and realized quickly that a $500+ car payment is stupid for us and not worth it. Sold the vehicle during the COVID used car crisis for more than we owed and put the excess towards an older/smaller used vehicle.
Now, we’re stuck and priced completely out of the market altogether. Good thing both of our vehicles (2016 Mazdas) are reliable and good to go for a while.
2024 is going to be wild for sure. In both good ways and bad. I’m going to try to ignore the bad and focus on NASA doing cool space stuff because space is cool and NASA is cool and NASA doing moon missions again is AWESOME. I just hope the world can keep it together long enough for the moon base to happen so I can geek out about it.
Also kinda stopped being interested in new cars as of late, seeing as most of them are crossovers and/or EVs anyway, but at least now Honda’s doing kinda interesting things, Mazda’s doing kinda interesting things, I’m excited to see what Dodge has created with the Hurricane-powered Challenger replacement, but most of all I’m interested in Aptera – the only EV that matters in my mind. If Aptera can actually put the things in production next year, it will become the only new vehicle I could actually see myself seriously considering buying. 40 miles of range per day from solar charging would cover all my needs easily, and after tax incentives I could probably save up for one easily enough so it’s actually attainable.
Also I have no debt now so I’m tentatively hopeful that next year I can save up for some kind of house. I don’t know about anyone else, but I for one have hope for 2024.
My 10000 ft take is if Pioneer or Alpine would have figured out how to replace entire dashes instead of head units, 90% of new cars sales wouldn’t happen.
How many folks have bought new cars simply because they felt like they needed something with a 10+ inch screen and swoopy dash?
Until the car companies right size their product lineup – more mavericks and less king ranches sales will continue to stagnate.
I think the number of people willing to modify their cars, especially ones they’ve considered replacing, is lower than you may think. Phone mounts, aux cords, and those bluetooth fm thingies have probably kept a lot of cars on the road, however.
90% of new car shoppers don’t want 10+ inch screens, they want buttons. Car companies want you to have a huge screen because it’s cheaper than buttons and thus more profitable.
If Pioneer or Alpine would replace entire screen dashes with actual physical buttons and switches, they could be sleeping on huge piles of money.
My opinion is that car companies don’t make changes unless tons of customer based focus groups and marketing folks recommend those changes.
I understand that buttons are better but I don’t think people when given the choice between buttons and shiny screens choose buttons when choosing vehicles. Again it’s my opinion but it’s not until after the purchase that they realize that they may have made a mistake.
Enthusiasts might prefer buttons, and cheapskates like myself might prefer simplicity but sadly the “shiny new toy” aspect of car buying has won IMO. One need only look at how few cars come with manuals to see that what may be superior is not what people actually plunk down their wallets for.
Money talks and if the market demanded buttons in reality Alpine or PIoneer would be making those – unfortunately that’s not where the demand is I don’t think.
I don’t see how Mary Barra is maintaining a vote of confidence from GM shareholders.Their EV production this year is beyond disappointing – it’s nearly non-existent. Perhaps their truck and SUV sales have kept them afloat, and prevented them from cutting EV production plans (unlike what Ford has announced recently), but GM seems woefully unprepared for changes coming soon (unless I’m wrong, and the status quo of ICE trucks and SUVs continues unabated through 2030).
It does seem like the only nonvapor GM EV is the Bolt. Kinda weird when Ford has been flogging the Mach-E and Lightning for over a year.
Thumbs on the music reco. I dig it!
My biggest takeaway from these sales numbers is that financial education is severely lacking here in the US.
I realize that’s no coincidence, if people made smart decisions and bought only what they could afford, the economy would collapse.
Education is severely lacking in the U.S. yes. I’m starting to think they actually want to keep us dumb because we’re easier to manipulate that way.
100% agree.
Starting to think? This has absolutely been going on, hence why the public school system has been under attack, and now the higher education system is under attack. This has been a long game to keep people from being able to think critically, and you’re seeing it play out live with the stupidity we see on social media now.
You’re just starting to think that? Or did I miss the sarcasm?
Look at which states have the lowest educational achievement scores and the worst wars on education, science, and literacy.
Now look at the make-up of most conspiracy theory groups, the Jan 6 crowd, and people who believe whatever politician is telling them what they want to hear the loudest.
The overlap is almost perfect.
One thing I have no idea if it could impact +/- 16m is people waiting on the sidelines for the right EV. With only 7 EVs qualifying for the credit the choices are very few for those not willing to pay a premium. Perhaps there will be a lot of people that would buy a new car but want an EV similar to what they have, so they will delay until 2025 or even 2026. Is this group substantial and could prevent even hitting 2023 sales?
That’s the most false statement I’ve seen on this site. Mets fans don’t imagine catastrophes, they actively live through catastrophes. Every year since 2007 especially.
Doesn’t help that you guys literally play in a swampy landfill, lol
NOT me. GO PHILLIES!
Edit: the Astros are cheaters too.
Right on. I was rooting for you guys last year because the Tigers…eh, nevermind.
Nah, Met’s fans just think they live catastrophes. There are ups to go with the downs. They have an ownership that will actually spend money. They have a team that actually tries to win. They have decent success in the recent past. There is a reason to hope.
Mariners fans, on the other hand….
The Mariners are constantly down, so it the status quo and not a catastrophe. The Mets on the other hand have high expectations and an owner willing to spend the most, while still failing. In 2007 the Mets had a 7 game lead with 17 to go. They could have lost 10 of the 17 and made the playoffs, they lost 12 instead. They have achieved nothing since. The Mets are a catastrophe, a second rate team in that city, and anyone that’s a fan is a sadist.
2015 NL Champions? Still, they are the least recent WS winners in the division (FLA/MIA 2003, PHI 2008, MTL/WSH 2019, ATL 2021) so that’s not something to smile about.
Are you satisfied with a dinky pennant from 2015? I’m not satisfied with 2022 NL champs. Championship rings are the currency for greatness. Everything else is a participation trophy.
I’m not satisfied with anything lol, my favorite team (Angels, lucky me) are a laughingstock and my second favorite team (Nationals) blew it all up after their title and won’t contend for years
Hello, it’s me, Carstradamus. On March 16th, year of our lord 2024. Joe Biden will call all taxpaying Americans making below 250,000 dollars a year before a live studio audience outside of Trenton, New Jersey. There, he’ll surprise all of them by announcing “You get a new car, you get a new car, jack”, and so forth for around six straight minutes. Under the seat will be keys to one of either a Chevy Spark, Ford Fiesta or Dodge Hornet. All from America’s critical compact passenger car reserves. The Supreme Court will allow this in a 7-2 ruling, Neil Gorsuch writes the majority opinion stating “Fine, whatever, we’ll allow it.” Each one of these will count towards new car sales. Final total will be 206,482,327 new cars sold.
Those will be the Powershift DCT Fiestas of course 🙂
I knew there was a catch…
There is 3 STs in there, but overall yeah, you’re probably getting a Powershift.
Hey, it worked for the latest jobs report, when 21% of “new” jobs were just autoworkers returning.
Did they all return with an “I did that” sticker on their hard hats?!
I have no doubt the freight railroad workers did after they got the broomstick up the bum.
Or the Jeep/Fiat that nobody wants either. But at least the Renegade and even the Hornet get a real transmission, albeit the sometimes sketchy 9 speed.
MM cars sold in 2024 = number of Mets Wins in 2024 / 5.
(So if we finish around .500 you get your 16MM…)
I’ve been paying attention lately to Ford F-series with dealer temporary tags. And I’m seeing a whole lot more in XLT and Lariat trims than I am in the higher trims. Either folks are realizing that $80k pickups are just plain dumb, or they can’t afford the note.
For me, the upper trim levels have severely diminishing returns these days. It used to be that buying the King Ranch got you some legitimately useful features, but those features have all trickled down to the lower trims and the stuff you get on top trims now is often of dubious value (digital rear view mirrors, for example).
It’s nuts that a Lariat is considered a lower trim. Those Boomermobiles cost 70K and are stuffed with shiny objects.
I do think that sales will increase, not for the reasons outlined above, but rather in spite of them. Even if (counting chickens before they hatch) we do see three rate cuts next year, only the March one is gonna have any real across the board economic impact before 2025. So there is that part.
As far as price reductions? I don’t see that happening other than one-offs here and there. The auto industry, or any industry for that matter, isn’t going to get all misty-eyed nostalgic for the good old days of 2018 pricing. The food at the new Higher Prices restaurant tastes so much better.
Where I do see a huge factor for increased sales is because of totaled cars. Yes, this topic has been discussed ad nauseam here and everywhere else, but it doesn’t make it less true. The more complex the cars become, the easier it is to total them. People are not going to stop crashing cars and (or more accurately, cars crashing cars), old cars will phase out, first gen EV batteries will hit the landfills etc., so the increase in “here’s a check for the value, do what you must” insurance resolutions will lead to more new car registrations.
So, yeah, more new keys will exchange hands, it’s just that more of them won’t happen willingly.
This leads to the most interesting part of what may happen next year. How will the insurance companies handle a (maybe) lower interest rate environment coupled with higher totaled car claims. Although, that’s way off-topic here.
My sincere hope for 2024 is that more people realize what a remarkably good recovery we have had, and how good the economy really is, especially relative to what could have been (and seemingly is, in the rest of the world).
No, not everything is perfect, but most trends are going the right way.
Hey, shut up! You’re hurting the GOP’s efforts to convince us that the economy sucks so we go back to working for peanuts!
You honestly think the economy is GOOD? Wow, nice world YOU live in.
3.7%.
Not to pick a fight, but that’s not what is happening and you know it. Parroting catchphrases intended to manufacture division doesn’t help solve anything.
I am going to respectfully take the other side of the bet with you and the author. The problems I see are that interest rates are going down, but not much, and new car prices are going down, but not much, and inflation has gone down, from 9% to 7% percent which ain’t much. Next, 2024 is an election year, and historically election years are bad for the economy; it doesn’t matter who the candidate may be. See this article:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/presidential-election-years-stock-market-trump-biden-a599b013
Toss in the tendency for the Big 2.5 to push high end trims on their vehicles to squeeze more profit from each sale, the expenses for them from the impending transition to EV’s (which aren’t selling well), and the increases in labor costs and it’s unlikely we are going to see much improvement in affordability. Dealers are the ones who will have to eat decreased profits, albeit perhaps aided by manufacturer rebates.
Finally the Big 2.5 have essentially abandoned the bottom of the market – cain’t make no money on them little cars- and Japan has their fanboi market locked in so no price decreases there. So it’s going to by Korean or nothing for those in the bottom third or bottom half of the market…. IF they can afford the interest rates.
By the way I’m not the only pessimist in the woods, either.
My comment is intended to be much more broad than just the auto market. For cars themselves, I don’t predict a banner year necessarily, but a general, steady improvement in buying conditions.
Correct, which is the reason for my take in the first place.
I can’t agree with you on this one. The only way the economy looks good is if it is framed against the lockdown era. It’s not hard for the US to fare better than the rest of the World because we are the house at the casino. That doesn’t mean our carpets don’t reek of puke and full of cigar stains that need replacing now.
For a select segment of the population things are fine and dandy these days, I’ll agree to that. The thing is, is that the majority are stuck playing the one-credit penny slots, and it ain’t for entertainment.
Nah, real income gains are highest in the lower income brackets. Inequality is down.
It’s the upper middle class (whose complaints are loudest in media) that have taken the biggest hit. They are not as representative of the country as a whole as they imagine themselves to be.
Ok, but income gains don’t mean all that much when they don’t keep pace with real pricing. Especially for poor people.
I beg of people to understand what “real” means in an economic sense before typing their replies.
Real income means adjusted for inflation.
General Inflation, as how it is calculated today,doesn’t weigh heavily enough cost-of-living and goods and services, which makes Inflation numbers funny and only really applicable in commercial accounting.
And “Inflation” is adjusted for politics. Critically, inflation figures exclude changes in interest rates and costs of capital. As a result, you are repeating the same fugazzi the politicos are harping, and hoping that the average working class Jane or Joe can’t do the math to realize that despite Covid buxx, despite the shitty raises begrudgingly clawed out of suits, and despite constant assertions the supply chain is back to whatever normal is supposed to be, the average person cannot maintain the same lifestyle with the same sources of income they used to. Literally everything in the average J/J’s life is considerably more expensive, and only a fraction of it is (deliberately) captured in inflation figures. At the same time, whatever raises they have recieved are nowhere near enough to cover the increased expenses, subsidies are gone, and jacked up base rates mean their chance of buying a house or a new car have gone to zero without taking on crippling levels of debt.
I get that you wouldn’t believe the right wing if they said this, so fine, here’s the proggo left saying it. The economy is fucked for the lower half, but the bumbling incompetents in power don’t even realize it.
Both the right and the “proggo left” have their own biased reasons not to support the current administration.
Based on your comment, it seems you do too.
I’d simply ask you to answer why, if everything is so awful, the majority of Americans in poll after poll rate their *personal* financial situation so highly?
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/18/americans-economy-bad-personal-finances-good
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html
When was the last time you answered a telephone poll? And yet, we are all supposed to believe that a phone survey of a whopping 1,818 people conducted by Quinnipiac’s PR department is an accurate barometer of reality? Umm, yeah…
If you’re just a “LOL nothing matters, nothing is true, nothing can be trusted” guy, then so be it. My comments aren’t intended for you.
You have your own anecdotes about reality that are just as valid as mine. The only hope we have for a shared reality is aggregates and data. You’ve shared literally nothing in all your comments besides vibes and snark. If you’re asking me to disbelieve polling from long standing sources and data from the government, I’m going to need a better alternative than “some guy on the internet is mad about prices”.
I’m very much of the opinion that these things matter, it’s why I have replied multiple times. None of it being snark or whatever “vibes” is supposed to mean. I’ve been simply pointing out where your position has flaws in the eyes of many, myself included.
Since you didn’t answer directly, am I to assume that you DO believe a telephone poll of 1,818 people is in any way an accurate representation of the general population? I don’t.
I get that things look pretty good to you, I do. I might feel the same way if I owned a Viper as a toy and had a paid subscription to the NY Times type of discretionary income. Many people do not have that level of financial comfort. Which is not a knock on you, however, it is a slight clue behind the reasoning for your beliefs.
At this point, I’m just gonna go ahead and disagree on this topic and move on.
Representative samples do not need to be large to be accurate.
Polls can be wrong, but it’s not exactly like that picked a random 1800 people to call.
Statistics and polls exist for a reason. Dismiss expertise at your own risk.
What I mean is youve brought no data whatsoever to the table. You’re quick to tell me that you think I’m wrong, or my sources are wrong or suspect, but offer nothing besides your feelings (vibes) in response.
I’m very sorry you saw are article about someone paying $42 for lunch, or that stuff was locked up in a Rite Aid when you were shopping, or any of your other anecdotes.
Also, it’s the people in my (and I suspect your) income brackets who have lost, relatively speaking, in this economy. The difference is I’m not generalizing my experiences to the population as a whole. There are a lot more newly made $15-25/hr people who are outpacing inflation than there are upper middle class folks on the internet upset.
Of course I have my biases to not support the current administration, I like the working class to not get fucked over, I like the world to exist with fewer wars, and I like a justice system that treats everyone equally rather than carving out exemptions for every favored person and sympathetic class while at the same time being used as a weapon against those it dislikes. My counterpoint would be what kind of fucked up biases do you have to have to support the current admin?
Also, telephone polls, fucking LOOOOOOOOOL
*Ring Ring*
“Hello?”
“Ah, Mr. and Mrs. Boomer, thank you for answering a phone call from a random number you’ve never seen before, do you have a few minutes of free time to answer some loaded questions that will be trumpeted as absolute fact on select media outlets?
“Of course, I’m retired and don’t have to work to feed myself, so why not?”
“Great- how do you feel about the economy in general and the state of your personal finances?”
“Well, we’re very concerned about the economy in general. Our little Jimmy is working two jobs trying to make rent and repair his broken car. He says he can’t buy a new car, and has no chance of ever affording a house, and lives off of rice and beans. Our little Sarah broke our heart the other day when she told us she and her husband wouldn’t be having kids, because they can’t afford to pay for a bigger apartment, diapers, day care, and to stop working because family leave doesn’t cover OT or other missed career opportunities.
But I guess our personal financial situation is great- our two houses have been paid off since the 90’s, and have appreciated over 1000%. The rent we get from the 2nd one alone covers all of our expenses, which means our 401ks and pension plans just keep on compounding gains. We’re thinking of shopping for a third place, somewhere warm like Florida or Arizona. I don’t understand why kids these days just can’t pull themselves up by the bootstraps.”
“Ah, perfect, that was exactly the answer we were looking for, thanks! We needed some more grist for the propaganda mill. Do not say this part out loud. Uh, oops, forget you heard that” *click*
Like, are you actually a member of the current administration? That’s the only way I can see being so unaware that media propaganda does not in any way equal reality.
PS- you keep waving around the official inflation rate like some sort of totem against bad economic news. I have to remind you that inflation rate calculations do not take into account interest rate fluctuations. This has… consequences. Fun experiment: if you have a morgtage more than a few years old, see just how much it would cost you to get that same loan today. I would be paying more than twice as much a month for the same loan, not even accounting for the increase in house value.
The consequences of an attitude like yours are very likely to be an administration that’s worse on every one of the points you mentioned, starting next year. If you can live with that, by all means carry on.
Also, I wonder if you’d consider the idea that if (as you seem to believe) some of the media are publishing propaganda to support the current administration, how far fetched the idea might be that other parts of the media might be exaggerating how bad things really are? Perhaps with a different agenda in mind? Seems plausible no?
Fucking Lol. You don’t like my attitude? It might cost your precious admin their grip on power? Good. Your admin is a fucking disaster. For the record, I find the attitude of complacent upper class urban boomers to be a a direct threat to the lives and livelihood of my family and those I care about, so I’ll not just live with that, I welcome the conflict.
Propaganda exaggerating how bad shit is? Bullshit. I asked you about mortgages- and I was serious. If I was to buy it for the same price today, I couldn’t afford my own house, the monthly payment would be 114% more, according to a quick morgtage calculator, that’s the cost of interest rate spikes. My insurance bills are up 50% in the same time frame thanks to a dipshit insurance commissioner dropping credit scores in the name of ‘equity’ and dipshit state AG/county prosecutor/city attorney all deciding that crime doesn’t need to be punished nor laws enforced, and I don’t have a single claim. My local school system has decided that splitting up classes between fast learners and others is raaaaayyyycis, and that cancelling AP/IB/Honors courses is the ‘equitable’ thing to do, because apparently they are a ‘slave ship‘. So if you actually give a shit about your kids getting a decent education, private school is the only way to go, and guess what, that’s expensive as fuck. None of these increased costs are shown in inflation figures, and yet you wonder why people are convinced the economy sucks? Simple- for people starting a career and a family, it does suck.
It must be nice to be in a position where the economy seems good. I know very few people for whom that is true.
Thank you for saying exactly what I know as well. It’s amazing how many people on this site will like a comment that isn’t even remotely close to reality, only just paraphrased from press releases, as if that was the truth.
“Nah, real income gains are highest in the lower income brackets. Inequality is down.”
So… what that really means is that the guy who was making $18 an hour is making $24 while the guy making $150 is only making $152.
Yet both are paying the same prices for gasoline, electricity, and food.
But income inequality is done, so everything is fine, right?
Inflation hurts everyone, but it hurts the poor worse.
The guy making 33% higher wages and paying ~20% more for his basket of goods is better off than he was in 2019, yes.
The guy making 1.5% higher wages and paying 20% more isn’t better off.
The second guy is much better represented in media and apparently car blog comment sections. There are a lot more of the first guy in this country.
Income gains in the lower tiers without the current middle class gains results in middle class and down (currently at least) suddenly becoming Lower tier as well. The middle is always the slowest to get righted it seems.
Wage gains may be historically high at the bottom of the income scale, BUT cost of living is up even more, and those increases hit the lower incomes hardest. Rent, groceries, transportation, insurance, health care… All of those increased by a greater percentage than household income. Which is why people are feeling really negative about things, unless they’re already in the “surplus income” state.
Now I beg of people to read my already existing replies defining “real income gains” before they post the same wrong info again.
Wages are higher than they were pre pandemic, AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INFLATION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THAT TIME.
This trend is most pronounced in the lower income brackets. You need not take my word for it, or even read a chart, just go to your local McDonalds or Walmart and ask what their starting wage is. Remember the “Fight for $15?” It’s over and won.
Don’t forget to check your receipt for that $12 value meal of slop, or $40 for that parent working 3 jobs on the go!
That garbage is $12 now?! That’s insane. Are there that many people living in a food desert and don’t care about their health? Around me, for that price or maybe $1 more, I can get all different Asian, Middle Eastern, subs, vegetarian, wraps, Mexican, whatever from independent or very small chains and this place has less variety than the last place I lived.
There was an article the other day about a couple that went to a 5 Guys in the outer boroughs. They ordered two double-cheeseburgers, 2 pops, and split a large fry. The total was $42.XX. I know it’s NYC and all, but still.
Wow, that’s seriously nuts. Earlier this year, I was eating out on Nantucket at nice places (work paid for) for maybe 50% more than that and that’s uppity island pricing (though, off season, which is probably cheaper). I hear people talking about how teenagers live on their phones when we would drive around, go out to eat, and do things when hanging out and we paid with our own money from work. I don’t think it’s the technology that’s the reason for kids being the way they are today, it’s the money. A half-decent car was $500-750 instead of $3500-5500 for something far more expensive to fix, gas was $1 and sometimes less (and almost nothing needed high octane) instead of $3.50+, insurance was probably a quarter as much, and food from low end restaurants was about half as much. According to inflation calculator, the rate since 1993 is only +107%. I also made about $10/hr pushing carriages at a grocery store, which would be $20.70 today.
This just in: New York City cost-of-living is insane…and not at all representative of the vast majority of the country.
I agree it’s not, hence why I qualified it. However, even if both people in that couple are making $25/hr, that’s more than two hours of wages total after taxes. For fast food.
5 Guys is not a value brand. Even in nowhere Maine they are an expensive option. It’s a mistake to think “cheeseburger = cheap”.
You’re qualifying that with saying it’s NYC, but that’s roughly how much it would cost in Southern Small Town USA as well. (I have spent $20+ on just myself for a burger, fries, and a soda at my local Five Guys, and I’m in a southern city of less than 60,000 folks.)
When the wife travels I take the kids, McD/BK/Wendys/TBell will cost the same or more than Applebees or Chilis…. Its insane.
That’s where you see the difference between register jockeys making $15+/hr vs. servers working mostly for tips. The labor trade-off is real.
Except that the official measure for inflation leaves out things that are kinda important, like food and energy.
Yes, wages are higher, adjusted for inflation, by about 13.6%. Buuuuut, over the same time period, inflation was about 17%. The official inflation number doesn’t take food or energy into account, which have seen some of the highest increases, and you really can’t do without those.
80% of the increases over the last 5 years fall broadly into the categories of food, housing, transportation and energy, where lower-income people generally have to spend a higher proportion of what they have, because those are not discretionary.
I know, from direct experience with my friends and family who are in that lower income tier, that they are struggling with grocery and rent costs, and are terrified of getting sick or needing to repair a car.
These wages are CPI adjusted (Not core CPI that excludes food and energy)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Thank you.
I’ve noticed that locally in a big way. I recently helped one of my renters apply for a job at a nearby food plant – $25/hour plus an solid benefits package for a full-time 3rd shift janitorial position.
My daughter (who of course has essentially no bills still being in high school) managed to save up several thousand dollars in the last six months working just a couple days a week as a hostess at a nearby restaurant. Adjusted for inflation she makes close to three times what I did working in an auto body repair shop when I was her age!
I suspect that part of why the “vibes” seem off for middle to upper middle class people is actually because the lower class is doing better, relatively speaking.
Restaurants, service businesses, retailers, etc don’t have an eager and willing pool of people thankful to get a $10-$12/hr job anymore. So they have to cut staff, raise prices, etc. All this degrades the experience for the consumer, which translates to “everything sucks, I’m paying $12 for Mcdonalds and have to enter the order myself, the shelves aren’t stocked at Walmart anymore and I have to use self-checkout, and so on.
No. The consumer experience sucks because in many places there is no self-checkout and all the merch is locked up due to shoplifting. I was at a Rite Aid in Midtown Manhattan and had to hunt someone down to unlock the cabinet to get a little tin of Blistex. I repeat, Blistex.
Those people you speak of that are making $15/hour are actually making less than a friggin’ Value Meal/hr after taxes. That sucks.
I haven’t stepped foot in a McDonald’s in years, but this made me curious so I looked up what a value meal cost in the early 1990’s – right around when I was making $4/hr before taxes sandblasting rusty vehicle frames (min. wage was $3.85/hr). Turns out it was $4.59. The more things change…
With housing and inflation the way it is, a lot of people will never believe (or feel) that. The country’s economy may be going well, but people don’t see their personal economy that way.
Count me in that group. I have zero debt and no problems paying my bills, however my rent went up nearly $400 effective January, and guaranteed any increase I get at work isn’t coming anywhere close to covering that. Between this and general price increases everywhere else, I’m effectively making less than I was back in 2019. At least in 2019 I had hope of someday being a homeowner, but that’s crushed now. (I do realize I could be doing much worse, I’m not yet living in my car, but this is still a very stressful time)
Don’t get me wrong though, I DO agree with you. I strongly believe things would be exactly the same, if not worse, had Republicans won in 2020. All the people blaming this on Democrats conveniently forget this all started in 2020, while R’s were still in power. For years the trend has been Republicans tank the economy, and Dems fix it just in time for another republican to take office and claim the credit. I don’t know where this myth of republicans being good for the economy or “the party of the working class” came from.
Also, oil production is at an all-time high, but that’s never mentioned either.
Ironically, opinion polls tend to show the opposite. The majority of people believe they are doing fine personally, but that the economy as a whole is bad. Sentiment diverged from hard economic indicators during the pandemic in a way it basically never has before.
I think @V10omous is both correct and incorrect. The economy IS doing well compared to the slowdowns in the EU, China. The US is growing, building infrastructure and factories. Profits are at highs. Unemployment is very low.
But… wealth inequality is causing severe cost of living issues. The wage increases from the Great Resignation and labor competition has been eaten up by both inflation and companies keeping the prices on many basic items high compared to inflation to gain more margin. Housing is no longer for putting roofs over heads, it’s looked at as semi-passive investment income by people who do have the money to buy housing. High interest rates are keeping the housing stock limited. People who do have low mortgage rates don’t want to sell or move to something that works for them because they’d get stuck with higher rates. People who want to buy, either drop cash on the table or suffer with high rent or high mortgage rates.
So yeah, the economy sends strong signals, but there are some major long-term issues with housing, employment compensation, and profit-taking that for the health of the economy, should be addressed before the bad affects those big economic indicators.
You touched on something I don’t see discussed as much, and that’s the price hikes on…well, everything. Corporations continue to bring in record profits, because the pandemic shortages resulted in higher prices on…again, everything. Shortages have decreased, but the prices have stayed high, because corporations have realized they can get away with it and people will continue to buy things they, you know, need to get by (food, gas, housing etc.). So while wages have increased, people aren’t seeing that. In 2021 I got a decent sized raise, by the beginning of this year it was eaten up by the higher costs of everything. The fed can do what they want with interest rates, but it’s not going to change the fact that large companies have realized they can keep prices arbitrarily high, make record profits, and get away with it. No matter how good the economy is, these price increases are what drives the lack of confidence in the economy. In short, corporate greed is a large driver of inflation. It’s no coincidence that major corporations are bringing in record profits while people see their buying power decrease.
There are of course, many other factors contributing to inflation, views of the economy, etc. This is just one pillar of the issue at hand. But it’s one I don’t hear discussed as much.
So much this, I see two economies right now. The corporate economy that is highly profitable, expanding and building everywhere I turn. I travel and see capital investments and construction everywhere. There is also the consumer economy that has seen price hikes in the last 3 years but not the confidence and wage increases to sustain and grow it. Our conglomerates are raking it in while our people feel they are just getting by.
I think it’s gonna be a good year. So….
16,414,141
Elon counters with: “16,420,469, snicker, snicker…”
LOL!!!!
If you get closest without going over, you get to come up on stage and play that game with the yodeler.
When I was a kid in the 80’s, my favorite was Plinko.
Best part about staying home from school sick was watching The Price is Right at grandma’s house.
Depends on what you mean by new. If you’re talking fresh from the factory, never-owned vehicles, that’ll be a whole lot of cars sold, 16 million possibly. If you’re talking new, never seen before models to the market (not new trim levels), that will be not so much, maybe two or three.
Defaults on auto loans are at an all time high. The 99% have never had less money in their bank accounts (when adjusted for inflation).
This bill will come due and while automakers have been waking up to it in the form of vehicles like the Maverick Hybrid and such, but they make up a miniscule fraction of their portfolios and even automotive Giants like Ford cannot meet demand for the Maverick Hybrid years after production started. Instead it went from the “standard” drivetrain that was only available for 35% of all models produced with 80% of the orders being for the Hybrid to being a several thousand dollar option not meeting even half of production while 65% of orders are for the hybrid with the general Maverick several thousand dollar manufacturer markups and the several thousand dollar hybrid drivetrain markups.
The Golden Goose is 80 years old and they’re putting through a literal wringer trying to get it to squeeze out just one more golden egg that the people cannot afford while the Silver Goose is laying eggs a plenty that people are lining up out the door to buy yet they’re keeping it out in the cold with minimal food and water.
The maverick and even the 41K Lightning were pretty similar to streaming service in my opinion. Paying way to much to sell something at a low price to gain some footing in the market. then when the price rights itself hope the hype and false demand keeps people buying for the real price.
Except Ford it cutting Lightning production, price hikes likely have a lot to do with that.
*is
correct
How many cars sold in 2024?
Over 9,000
On Cruise? I think we need to pit a Cruise car in a gladiator ring with “Ted” Cruze and see what happens.
I’m going to say at least 1. Probably a lot more than 100, even.
Maybe only 100 cars could be accurate, plus 8m Trucks and 8m SUV/CUVs.
Its sad because its true.
They’ll all be black, grey, or white as well
Are we doing Price is Right rules?
I just enjoy specifying something will be at least [X] in a ridiculous understatement that is still technically correct, since the numbers involved are orders of magnitude higher. That, and I don’t have a real guess.
How many Fiats will be sold in America? I’m not entirely convinced it will be more than 1, but it will be likely less than 100.
Unless it’s a Dodge Hornet…then maybe less.