It’s always hard to give general car advice given how much can vary from brand to brand, market to market, or even between two dealers from the same brand within the same market. If you can get a great deal now, you shouldn’t wait. The numbers don’t lie, though, and the numbers say the average buyer is better off waiting a little.
How much is a little? It’s time to pull out some of my favorite charts for the first Morning Dump of the week. The Average Transaction Price (ATP) for a new car just crested $50,000 again, which isn’t great. Inventory is also tight, though not across the board, so maybe there are deals to be had.
Building Chinese cars in the United States could help lower prices, maybe. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as well as some of the current Trump administration are against such a move. There’s only one major proponent for it: President Trump. Weird! And speaking of weird, Tesla teased an announcement for what looks like the long-delayed Roadster.
Average Transaction Price Is Over $50,000 Once More
Below is a chart of Average Transaction Price, which could be a graph of just about any consumer good over the last few years, with the exception of flat-screen televisions.
ATP crested $50,000 for the first time ever last October, retreated ever-so-slightly after Christmas, and is now back up again. The semiconductor shortage gave automakers a reason to raise prices, and I don’t think there’s ever going to be a reason for them to lower them.
How did the price go up so much? Here’s another graphic, also from Cox Automotive/KBB:
You can see the level of incentives is going down a bit as manufacturers are backing off support a little. Here’s how Cox’s Erin Keating frames it:
“We expected transaction prices to move back above the $50,000 mark in 2026, as new-vehicle prices typically increase through the year and especially in the second half, when next-model-year vehicles begin arriving at dealerships. New-vehicle price inflation is real, but automotive price increases have been moderate in recent years and remain below the long-term average of roughly 3%. At the same time, many American households are under significant financial pressure, which is steering more shoppers toward lower price points. The continued strong growth of Subcompact SUVs highlights how important affordability remains in today’s market.”
Some of this is seasonal, as ATP tends to climb towards the back half of the year. Some of this is inventory, as 2027 MY cars are slow to roll out and automakers are still trying to adjust to tariffs. I think some of it is the impact of higher destination charges working its way into the numbers, though this is also a tariff-related outcome.
With fewer cars, less money from automakers, and lower foot traffic, it’s just not a great time for the average dealer to try and cut prices. When 2027 MY cars start arriving and inventory creeps up at the end of the year, as it often does, that’s probably the best time to try to buy a car.
Again, this is not vehicle specific, as you might be able to get the best deal on a RAV4 Hybrid in October. The cheapest Mazda MX-5 sold this year could have been three weeks ago in Omaha. These types of charts only give an overall look, and the overall look says to hold off buying a car a few months.
Maybe Now Is A Good Time To Buy A Jeep
Charts? You want more charts? Stop screaming, I’ll make it happen. Jeez.
One of my absolute favorite ways to look at the car market is this chart of Days’ Supply, which shows who has too many or too few cars relative to the national average. As usual, the Toyota brands are all the way to the left, well below the national average, and the Stellantis brands are way to the right.
Jeep has been rolling out the new mid Jeep Cherokee Hybrid, which might explain why the brand has so much days supply that it’s fallen off the chart. The other reason is that Jeep offers a bunch of fairly average cars and builds way more of those models than the market can currently support. This is why being a little less picky about what car you want could mean a good deal on a Jeep or a Dodge right now, depending on the model.
There’s something here that’s not quite as clear on the graph, but Cox Automotive explains in better detail:
The rollout of model-year 2027 vehicles accelerated in August, with next-model-year vehicles represented 12.4% of available inventory at month-end, more than double the 5.6% share recorded in July. Even with that increase, the transition remains well behind last year’s pace. At the end of August 2025, model-year 2026 vehicles accounted for 23% of available inventory, nearly twice the current share.
The arrival of model-year 2027 vehicles is uneven across the industry. Kia, Cadillac, BMW and Lincoln have already seen growing availability, while Toyota, VW and Subaru remain much earlier in the rollout. The contrast is especially notable at Toyota and Lexus, where inventory remains among the tightest in the industry and next-model-year vehicles remain limited.
This time last year there were way more new MY vehicles available, which helped push ATP down a bit as dealers were offering more incentives to get 2025 cars off the lot. This also means that maybe Cadillac is a decent place to look for a deal.
President Trump Would Be ‘OK’ With Chinese Cars Built In America
Hmm. So.
“Now, if China wanted to come in and open a plant to build their cars here, I’d be OK with it,” President Trump told Fox News host Laura Ingraham last week, adding that the Japanese carmakers do it, but they hire “our” people.
This is a curious position, although similar to what he’s said in the past. The curiosity comes from the timing, given the letter that Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy sent to Ford last week complaining about the company working with Chinese automakers. This is also against the backdrop of leaders from both parties trying to push a ban on Chinese connected cars, which won’t allow a carmaker to sell a car here if it has more than 15% Chinese ownership. How would that square with BYD opening up a factory in, say, Arizona.
President Trump also responded to rumors that a deal with China might include building plants in the United States, calling it a “phony rumor” and then falsely claiming there are no Chinese cars in the country (Polestar, Buick, and Lincoln have imported cars, and Waymo uses Chinese-built, Chinese-branded Zeekrs).
Is The Tesla Roadster Finally Coming?
There’s a new teaser from Tesla and it looks like this:
Most of the talk about the Tesla Roadster lately has centered less on its rocket thrusters, and more on the fact that its taken so long that its deposit holders have been trying to get their money back. The Roadster was initially unveiled in 2017, but has been delayed again and again.
The image above is from the Roadster page on the Tesla website, so something is happening on October 1st. Here’s Bloomberg with some informed speculation:
The fall event, which has been eagerly anticipated by Tesla fans, is likely to fuel even more speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. “Go for launch” is a nod to SpaceX’s rocket launches, and Tesla has used its live events to gin up enthusiasm among customers and investors.
Tesla, like most tech stocks, is taking it in the shorts today (actually, the shorts might be doing well), so anything to drum up excitement will please shareholders.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is there a best version of “You’ve Really Got A Hold On Me” out there? I’m partial to the Smokey Robinson version, but both The Beatles and the OG Peggy Lee version could claim GOAT status.
The Big Question
The last time you bought a new car, what month was it? Did you wait for a specific time or did you just go when you needed a car?
Top photo: Toyota
I’ve never bought a new car, and unless we eventually ban vehicles from having transmitters in them, I never will. New cars come out unfinished and rely on OTA updates to “fix” them as they go, so I wouldn’t want to snip the antenna on a vehicle that’s still under warranty.
I’ll probably get a 2027-2030 compact EV one day as a commuter, after the community has learned how to hack them to block data sharing, update the infotainment past the intended factory supported date and program consistent, linear control responses. Once I can follow a ChrisFix video or pay a person to jailbreak my car without having to become a master programmer, I’ll feel confident in buying a modern car. Until then, I’ll stick with cars I can bump-start.
I bought a used 2017 Volt. First thing I did, literally in a Walmart parking lot after the purchase, was to pull the OnStar antenna and add a 50Ohm terminator (that I brought with me to the sale). The community has published this, (and how to pull the entire OnStar transmitter) as hacks to this system. GM says the don’t sell collect or sell data anymore, but it’s been a while since the last public outrage/shaming, so I definitely don’t trust them.
Bought a Grand Highlander on July 5th. Drove an hour to get the vehicle and when we arrived there were two other people waiting to see if we were going to buy it. The salesman said just about all the Toyota SUVs are sold before they get through detailing. We had to drive an hour just to find one with no ADM (shout out to Toyota of Marin). I don’t know why Toyota advertises at all.
They advertise to remind people that you can’t buy one without getting on a list first.
Last new car was in dec or jan of winter 20-21 peak covid and we got a very good deal right before prices skyrocketed.
We buy cars when we need cars, we are not rich enough to find other forms of transportation to wait for a “best” time.
I bought a used car in April 2020. That was a great time to buy! It was after all the lockdowns; dealers had Zero traffic and no one knew when that would end. However the supply chain issues hadn’t hit yet. They were desperate to make a sale, and didn’t realize how prices would skyrocket.
I’ve made financial decisions at good and bad times, but that was a good one!
We need cars too, but that buy replaced a car that was on its last legs, so it was a question of when, not if. I had been deciding when to pull the trigger since before COVID.
Yes cars are crazy, I could not replace our 2012 and 2020 cars with new ones and we had no trouble buying them new then. Prices are wild and we do earn a lot more but not as much as cars and everything else has gone up in cost.
Sounds like when we bought my wife’s RAV4. I think the prices started climbing a couple weeks later…
Is anyone actually excited for this besides the shareholders?
Weird internet nerds.
I’ve never really worried about the month, just when I want/need.
Days’ supply by make is of limited use to a shopper as a metric. I drive past a large (for the area) Chevy dealership and they are running out of space to store full-size pickups and Tahoe/Suburbans but their small selection of Traxes is constantly rotating through and when they get a Bolt it doesn’t last long.
Last time I bought a new car was right before the pandemic (literally, end of February 2020) and there’ve been times when I felt this must’ve been what it felt like to score a new ’42 right before Pearl Harbor. It was (is) a base manual Honda Fit, $16k and the dealer explained there wasn’t much they could take off that but they did eat the destination charge. I should’ve Fluid Filmed it then and there since I’ll probably have it for a number of years more at this rate and am nowhere near tired of it anyway.
Last car I bought was in January 2021.I hit a deer and totaled my car in early December 2020 and had a rental for 30 days.I wanted and Mazda 6 and found a Mazda dealership 2 hours away that had five 2020 leftovers in stock.I offered 25k out the door and the sales manager called me back in ten minutes accepting my offer.My wife and I drove down with the cash and drove it home that afternoon.Easiest car purchase I ever made.He still calls me once a year trying to sell me another car and I always tell him when they start making the 6 again I will gladly buy one.I did look at a WRX a few weeks ago but too small.
I’ve made 5 new car purchases in 30 years. Each time was because want/need, not calendar. But there’s always been some kind of deal to be had.
The fact that my transaction price has just barely doubled over 30 years, and is now way below the average at this point leaves me feeling like the new car market I probably broken and definitely not for me.
I was interested in the Slate, but the need for new just isn’t there.
I’m just picturing someone going, “Welp, it’s February 29th. I’ve got to buy a car whether I want to or not. No, no, I don’t make the rules…”
I had a coworker couple who, I swear did exactly this. I literally lost count of the number of new cars (definitely in double digits) they cycled through in the 4 years (2022-2026) I worked with them.
I vaguely tell myself “I’d like to keep this vehicle for X years.” whenever I buy one. But it’s just a weak ideal I tell myself.
I have the opposite problem. I look at car prices to know what I’d want at a given price “if a car is totaled” and think about buying, but then I think about the car buying process and say “nah, I’m good”…
*if/when I ever actually consider buying new I might actually hire Delivrd just to not deal with dealerships…
“The Big Question:
The last time you bought a new car, what month was it? Did you wait for a specific time or did you just go when you needed a car?”
We ordered our 2024 Trax LS in July of 2023. It was built in September, shipped in October, and finally arrived at the stealership in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula the week between Christmas and New Year’s day. We would have liked to get it before winter, but it took quite a while to get built and shipped.
We picked it up on January 2nd, 2024. The roads were dry with no salt on them so we drove it home and stored it under a carport until May of that year so it didn’t get driven on salty roads.
GM, proudly not made in America. Where’s Duffy’s hate mail for GM?
Yep. It came from South Korea.
But the design and quality are pretty decent for the cheapest Chevy available at the time. And the closest Kia/Hyundai stealerships are 100 miles away. (not that I would buy a Kia/Hyundai) At least the corporate profits stay in the U.S. and didn’t go straight to S. Korea.
After three summers and 9,000 miles, we’re pretty happy with it so far.
Would I have preferred if it were made in the U.S.? Yes. GM could have kept the Lordstown plant going with the 2nd-gen Trax. But it probably would have cost closer to $30K than the $22,905 that we paid for ours.
I have never purchased a new car and likely never will unless my fortunes change.
I’ve had a couple Jeeps and a Dodge Hornet rental recently. The Jeeps weren’t too bad, if a bit anemic. The Hornet was pretty awful and I don’t understand buying one unless you get a stupidly good deal on the PHEV and can drive it mostly on battery. I know rentals aren’t the absolute best way to judge a car, but these were low enough mileagee that I feel it was a decent indication.
The last new car I bought was a BMW motorcycle. I bought it because I could pay cash after selling some stock options that were going to crash very soon. So that determined the timing.
I’m in the minivan market at the moment and it is dark and scary out there.
Terrible market for buyers right now.
Wait, what?
I’m going to be buying an Odyssey at the end of the year.
I thought we were sitting pretty because everyone’s buying three row SUVs instead of minivans.
Dammit.
Good luck, be willing to do a fly/drive or transport it.
The last new car I bought was my Maverick a couple years ago. Order books were only open for a short time and I bought it when it was delivered, so I really had no option to be choosy about timing. Ordered ones were fixed at MSRP though so I knew exactly what I was getting and what I was paying for it.
I’ve never bought a new car. That kind of depreciation isn’t something I’m willing to deal with until I have fuck-you money, and with rumors of layoffs swirling again, FYM will have to take a backseat to “how much runway can Mech build as quickly as possible?”
I’m waiting to buy a new car, but not for the reasons you gave.
Frankly we’re at the end of one generation and the beginning of another of cars in general, and none of the new cars currently on the Market in the US I really want to buy.
I’m looking for a 2 door automobile that’s fairly compact with AWD or 4WD, just looking for a vehicle that’s basically for me and my dog. We got a 6 seat Ram 1500 to transport the family, but frankly I’d like something easier to park and better at U-Turns to drive around.
Clearly you need a 911 (whatever C4/awd version they make now)
Truck seems obvious here with the 2 door awd requirements, but even 2 door trucks aren’t that plentiful anymore. Extended cab Colorado or the GMC version maybe?
Sadly short bed single cab pickups are basically unobtanium nowadays. Already got the long bed pickup
Just got the email today that it’s been a year since I picked up the Escape PHEV. Bought it because the Pacifica PHEV errored out in too unsettling a way for my wife to get into it again.
Be careful,
> being a little less picky about what car you want
is how you end up at a Stellantis dealership in the first place.
I almost broke down and was close to buying a new WRX but it’s just too small.Not sure if the dealer had an overstock of them or what but he called me twice with a better price both times.My wife went go look at it but she thought it was too small also.Besides the last new Subaru I had was a complete disaster.It seemed like it would be a fun car though.Maybe if it was a Hatchback.
Purely out of curiosity, no judgement, how was it too small? For the driver, for your needs (family/hauling/family hauling)? I ask because as much as I loved my Sentra Spec-V, I’m pretty sure it’s the reason my hips are half-shot, being scrunched up on bad seats.
Not OP, but I’ve a few colleagues who recently (last few years) picked up WRXs.
Those with kids complain that while the rear-seats are functional for younger children they are tight. And they don’t easily fit childseats due to lack of depth to them to the front seats.
Having sat in one in the showroom, I don’t see much difference between the WRX passenger space and, say, a Honda Civic. But the lack of a hatch, to me, is a dealbreaker.
Weirdly not too small for four grownups, but throw a couple of car seats in there and that’s a no go, LOL.
I’m really not a small guy and it just felt cramped when I took it for a ride.We also go to about 20 concerts a year.My wife and 2 college age kids.I am 6’1,son is 6’3,daughter is 5’10,and wife is 5’9.I always do the driving and it’s just not big enough.I currently have a 2020 Mazda 6 and it’s cramped with all of us inside.Maybe I’m just too picky but I like a larger car.Really been looking at last gen Avalons but they are few and far between and the nice ones are priced ridiculously.
My back and hips are bad also.My wife is trying to talk me into a CX-50 but I just don’t want to drive a SUV.I know I’m outdated but I like cars.
I’ve only bought one new car and it was two whole decades ago. It was in DC and I was wearing a tshirt…other than that I have no idea the month.
Speaking of new cars I often think there would be some great deals on a Gladiator now, but I just can’t imagine having a note on a Stellantis anything. Then I remember that I don’t buy new cars anyway.
Incentives/promotions/closeout deals have definitely pushed me from “thinking about buying when the time is right” to “OK, I guess now is as good a time as ever”, but I don’t ever remember consciously planning in advance to buy a car in a certain month or season because of macroeconomic events or anticipated deals.
“…leaders from both parties trying to push a band on Chinese connected cars…”
Which band, the Gang of Four?
Does anybody believe Drumpf knows anything or cares about
Chinesecars? Surely he’s just trying to curry personal favor with Xi Jinping, right?Oh, Pooh.
Now’s a terrible time to buy anything, let alone a new car
TBQ: A new car in this economy? Are you crazy?
This economy where you can lock in a lower than inflation interest rate and then make payments with future money which is worth less?
Because consumer confidence is lower than it was during COVID? I think lots of people are probably thinking it’s not a great time to buy a car.
My wife and I stopped in a furniture store on Saturday in the early afternoon. We’ve considered getting a new dining table as ours is *checks notes* 80 years old and is been destroyed by young children (and my MIL).
It’s a popular spot and the place was EMPTY. I mean like, literally just us in a gigantic showroom. On a Saturday afternoon. We walked around and said “all this shit is WAY too expensive” and left much to the chagrin of the saleswoman who reeked of desperation.
Didn’t seem like a great sign.
Too many of those kinds of furniture stores exist.
I haven’t a clue how they keep the doors open.
IKEA is the answer.
Will an IKEA table last 100 years?
My IKEA dinner table has lasted 14yrs so far, survived kids since 4+; so far so good. And it was 20x less expensive than a big fancy furniture store.
Yeah I think the so-called mid-grade stuff (that’s really not any better than IKEA anyway) doesn’t have as much of a place anymore. If you’re going to buy something truly nice it’s one thing, but you’re going to pay for it. The 4k dining sets that seems run of the mill to me… I didn’t understand it.
Yeah. So much of Ikea is genuinely decently made, durable stuff. And I don’t need a pickup truck to bring it home.
I can’t speak for 100year survival, but we finally replaced one of our couches after nearly two decades and several kids’ abuse. Mostly because we couldn’t get a replacement cover for that model anymore. I don’t blame Ikea for that, but washable covers are an absolute must with kids.
Let alone a car that’s unlikely to be reliable or fuel efficient (e.g. Jeep)