It’s always hard to give general car advice given how much can vary from brand to brand, market to market, or even between two dealers from the same brand within the same market. If you can get a great deal now, you shouldn’t wait. The numbers don’t lie, though, and the numbers say the average buyer is better off waiting a little.
How much is a little? It’s time to pull out some of my favorite charts for the first Morning Dump of the week. The Average Transaction Price (ATP) for a new car just crested $50,000 again, which isn’t great. Inventory is also tight, though not across the board, so maybe there are deals to be had.
Building Chinese cars in the United States could help lower prices, maybe. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as well as some of the current Trump administration are against such a move. There’s only one major proponent for it: President Trump. Weird! And speaking of weird, Tesla teased an announcement for what looks like the long-delayed Roadster.
Average Transaction Price Is Over $50,000 Once More
Below is a chart of Average Transaction Price, which could be a graph of just about any consumer good over the last few years, with the exception of flat-screen televisions.
ATP crested $50,000 for the first time ever last October, retreated ever-so-slightly after Christmas, and is now back up again. The semiconductor shortage gave automakers a reason to raise prices, and I don’t think there’s ever going to be a reason for them to lower them.
How did the price go up so much? Here’s another graphic, also from Cox Automotive/KBB:
You can see the level of incentives is going down a bit as manufacturers are backing off support a little. Here’s how Cox’s Erin Keating frames it:
“We expected transaction prices to move back above the $50,000 mark in 2026, as new-vehicle prices typically increase through the year and especially in the second half, when next-model-year vehicles begin arriving at dealerships. New-vehicle price inflation is real, but automotive price increases have been moderate in recent years and remain below the long-term average of roughly 3%. At the same time, many American households are under significant financial pressure, which is steering more shoppers toward lower price points. The continued strong growth of Subcompact SUVs highlights how important affordability remains in today’s market.”
Some of this is seasonal, as ATP tends to climb towards the back half of the year. Some of this is inventory, as 2027 MY cars are slow to roll out and automakers are still trying to adjust to tariffs. I think some of it is the impact of higher destination charges working its way into the numbers, though this is also a tariff-related outcome.
With fewer cars, less money from automakers, and lower foot traffic, it’s just not a great time for the average dealer to try and cut prices. When 2027 MY cars start arriving and inventory creeps up at the end of the year, as it often does, that’s probably the best time to try to buy a car.
Again, this is not vehicle specific, as you might be able to get the best deal on a RAV4 Hybrid in October. The cheapest Mazda MX-5 sold this year could have been three weeks ago in Omaha. These types of charts only give an overall look, and the overall look says to hold off buying a car a few months.
Maybe Now Is A Good Time To Buy A Jeep
Charts? You want more charts? Stop screaming, I’ll make it happen. Jeez.
One of my absolute favorite ways to look at the car market is this chart of Days’ Supply, which shows who has too many or too few cars relative to the national average. As usual, the Toyota brands are all the way to the left, well below the national average, and the Stellantis brands are way to the right.
Jeep has been rolling out the new mid Jeep Cherokee Hybrid, which might explain why the brand has so much days supply that it’s fallen off the chart. The other reason is that Jeep offers a bunch of fairly average cars and builds way more of those models than the market can currently support. This is why being a little less picky about what car you want could mean a good deal on a Jeep or a Dodge right now, depending on the model.
There’s something here that’s not quite as clear on the graph, but Cox Automotive explains in better detail:
The rollout of model-year 2027 vehicles accelerated in August, with next-model-year vehicles represented 12.4% of available inventory at month-end, more than double the 5.6% share recorded in July. Even with that increase, the transition remains well behind last year’s pace. At the end of August 2025, model-year 2026 vehicles accounted for 23% of available inventory, nearly twice the current share.
The arrival of model-year 2027 vehicles is uneven across the industry. Kia, Cadillac, BMW and Lincoln have already seen growing availability, while Toyota, VW and Subaru remain much earlier in the rollout. The contrast is especially notable at Toyota and Lexus, where inventory remains among the tightest in the industry and next-model-year vehicles remain limited.
This time last year there were way more new MY vehicles available, which helped push ATP down a bit as dealers were offering more incentives to get 2025 cars off the lot. This also means that maybe Cadillac is a decent place to look for a deal.
President Trump Would Be ‘OK’ With Chinese Cars Built In America
Hmm. So.
“Now, if China wanted to come in and open a plant to build their cars here, I’d be OK with it,” President Trump told Fox News host Laura Ingraham last week, adding that the Japanese carmakers do it, but they hire “our” people.
This is a curious position, although similar to what he’s said in the past. The curiosity comes from the timing, given the letter that Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy sent to Ford last week complaining about the company working with Chinese automakers. This is also against the backdrop of leaders from both parties trying to push a ban on Chinese connected cars, which won’t allow a carmaker to sell a car here if it has more than 15% Chinese ownership. How would that square with BYD opening up a factory in, say, Arizona.
President Trump also responded to rumors that a deal with China might include building plants in the United States, calling it a “phony rumor” and then falsely claiming there are no Chinese cars in the country (Polestar, Buick, and Lincoln have imported cars, and Waymo uses Chinese-built, Chinese-branded Zeekrs).
Is The Tesla Roadster Finally Coming?
There’s a new teaser from Tesla and it looks like this:
Most of the talk about the Tesla Roadster lately has centered less on its rocket thrusters, and more on the fact that its taken so long that its deposit holders have been trying to get their money back. The Roadster was initially unveiled in 2017, but has been delayed again and again.
The image above is from the Roadster page on the Tesla website, so something is happening on October 1st. Here’s Bloomberg with some informed speculation:
The fall event, which has been eagerly anticipated by Tesla fans, is likely to fuel even more speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. “Go for launch” is a nod to SpaceX’s rocket launches, and Tesla has used its live events to gin up enthusiasm among customers and investors.
Tesla, like most tech stocks, is taking it in the shorts today (actually, the shorts might be doing well), so anything to drum up excitement will please shareholders.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is there a best version of “You’ve Really Got A Hold On Me” out there? I’m partial to the Smokey Robinson version, but both The Beatles and the OG Peggy Lee version could claim GOAT status.
The Big Question
The last time you bought a new car, what month was it? Did you wait for a specific time or did you just go when you needed a car?
Top photo: Toyota
New car, a 2012 Suzuki SX4 in the fall of 2011 (wonderful car).
New to me car, 2020 Chrysler Voyager used, purchased in March 2023. I guess it wasn’t 100% a need, but the Hyundai Elantra Touring I owned at the time (replaced the SX4, horrible piece of shit not because the model was bad, but this was an example I got scammed on) was sort of a nightmare. I wanted a van for van things and… bought a van.
TBQ: my most recent new car purchase happened in March 2018 – a Honda Odyssey minivan. We got it then because our second kiddo was due to arrive in May, and we (mainly, I) wanted to get a minivan for shuttle-ing the kiddos.
There’s only one major proponent for it: President Trump. Weird!
This line made me laugh out loud, at the library. Folks are looking strangely at me…
August, and the timing was not by choice. My truck had been out of commission for over a month and the dealer didn’t know when they would be able to get parts to fix it. I’d had enough major failures that either stranded me or nearly stranded me that I was done with it, so I pulled the trigger on a new one.
Luckily, this was just after incentives had started to come back post-COVID, so I didn’t get completely hosed on the purchase. The timing actually worked out pretty well, so I guess it’s dumb luck FTW.
Fortunately I won’t be needing a new car for the foreseeable future.*
*Knocks on iron oxide.
My last new car purchase was October 2015. I was waiting for a 2016 Golf Sportwagen to come out with its updated infotainment over the 2015 version. Delays, more delays, and then a stop-sale due to the emissions deal. I started hearing rumors that the Touareg was next, so I managed to buy one on the very last day of before their own stop-sale.
I am tentatively planning to buy another new vehicle in February 2029. I have a few vehicles that becoming long in tooth, but I am not interested in providing my small contribution to the economy under the current administration.
I have never purchased a new car, only family hand-me-downs and used cars so far. I’m not opposed to it, the financials just haven’t really made a ton of sense to me yet.
“The last time you bought a new car, what month was it?”
July.
“Did you wait for a specific time or did you just go when you needed a car?”
Typically I just go buy a car when I’ve decided that a new/newer car is needed.
I would wait to buy a new car but I get bored at times. I’m currently tire-kicking with my tri-county area H/K dealers for pricing on the Sonata, K4, and K5. Their in-house financing rate is 2.5% lower than my credit unions. I’m graduating soon and my current Optima SX Theta II is about to hit 200K and the suspension-rubber is getting tired, not to mention the rust monster eating the front subframe from our Detroit winters.
I hear the HMF/KMF money factor is hovering around 5% on leases so I will wait for a quote at 36 months at 12K. If worst case scenario occurs, their cheap financing on a K4 may be the route I take.
I sort of want to wait for the new Elantra as its’ current debut in the Korean market as the Avante is amazing.
December 2024. Bought my new 2024 Mustang Mach E Premium RWD. I was in the market, but didn’t HAVE to have a new car yet. Wasn’t even looking for an EV. I just happened to see them while browsing, got to reading about them, and saw they had a huge sale on them at the time. Love it so far especially since I get to charge for free at my office.
Bought a used 2025 Expedition Platinum Stealth Appearance last week for my wife. So far, so good. It had 9200 miles on it when I got it!
May / June 2025 I bought a delivery milage leaf. I treaded a Forester for a Solterra June 2026. Actual sold as new was a Forester in June / July 2022. I’ve always held out for deals. I didn’t want to buy the Forester at all but especially at that time. My wife tried to talk my daughter into waiting but she had to have it then. I had to order it but I payed under sticker for it. I’ve always payed invoice or less so it’s the worst deal I’ve ever gotten and it felt like it everyday. One of the worst cars I’ve ever bought. But that was the time. Glad to see it gone.
The last new car I bought was my Wife’s 2025 Pilot in June of 2025. We had the funds available and deals were about as good as they get. My wife wanted a specific trim and color, so the pickings were a bit limited, plus that color was discontinued for MY26.
As of later this week though the most recent new car will have been bought in September of 2026, only because that is how long it took for my GR Corolla to go from an order to delivered to the dealer. It showed up yesterday afternoon.
I am shopping for a new car now. Sold my accord in early July, and looking for the right one. Market kinda sucks when your main thing on any car is ‘must be a color’.
The day I no longer have to hear about or see the orange shit stain in the video caption will be a big one for me.
TBQ – 2010 Mazda5 bought May 2010 cuz twins were due in July. A manual Sport that was sitting on the lot. My fleet of junk at that time didn’t have a vehicle reliable enough and big enough to be hauling around 3 kids. The first and probably last new vehicle I’ll ever buy.
The disparity in Tesla’s public image from when the roadster was announced in 2017 vs today is staggering. I would be curious if there’s ever been any other decade long development programs where the company did a 180 like this.
I’m more curious if there even has been a development program for the vaporware that is the roadster. Tesla shills keep telling me it’s about to launch, as if that hasn’t been the case since 2017.
CCC – Cybercab Cabriolet
That’s what I keep thinking about, too. Tesla circa 2017 is basically a different company compared to today, at least to the general public.
TBQ: I’ve owned 8 cars. Never bought a new one; not going to start now.
F350 on May 31, 2020, I had been looking for a used, regular cab, 4WD,8 ft box, single rear wheel for about six months, nothing out there that was not beat. When the wicked witch of the midwest, let our car dealers open up here in Michigan I stared working with a small dealer. I found the Truck I wanted a couple of hours away. Race red XL with the highest payload with single rear wheels. Made a deal, the local dealer picked it up the same day and i picked it up on June 1. I knew that the covid lockdowns would not end well for the auto industry.
I think that was my last new car. Too many nanny’s on the 2020 and more intrusive ones coming on line now.
Next car purchase will be another used Miata. I used up an NA and am now driving an NB, so a NC or ND will be next.
NC2/3s are great, skip the 06-08 NCs. That extra rev range you get with the 09-15 models is worth the price premium. Also IMO the ND is the way to go but budget wise it is very hard to argue against the NC.
If I had to replace my NA right now it would be with an NC only because of the price. I have a ton of seat time in my dad’s 2015 Club and it rules, but nowhere near as much as my friend’s 2019 Club.
China car strategy doesn’t make sense? because there is no coherent strategy in the administration. It’s just based on whatever they were last bribed to say.
Is the Tesla roadster coming? No. Elon decided Tesla needed a stock pump, so he’s rolling out a few new lies.
I’d bet money there was a suspiciously large purchase of Chinese car-related stocks by a Tonald J. Drump trust fund right before those comments were made.
Oh, who am I kidding? He wouldn’t bother obfuscating his name. It’s not like there’s anyone in Washington who will hold him accountable for his fraud and corruption.
TBQ: We’re about to buy one by the end of the year, as early next year with baby #2 we’ll have two rear facing car seats and that will not work with our current Mazda 3/Ford Focus set up. I’m hoping waiting until the last 2ish months of the year will yield some decent deals, but this will be my first time haggling for a new car, so we’ll see.
That said, looking for firsthand recommendations on something that is conducive to a rear facing car seat behind a 6′ driver. Preferably hybrid, has to have decent economy (at least 30ish mpg), not pure electric.
I bought my Silverado last November. Earlier that week my 2022 Grand Cherokee’s infotainment center went completely wonky for the third time after being repeatedly “fixed” on warranty. It was the last straw, I just wanted a vehicle that worked and the Chevy dealership gave me enough on trading it in to pay it off. Trucks been great so far, not a single problem (it’s the Turbomax).
Before that it was our 2024 ID4 that we leased in January of 2025 to take advantage of some lease offers.
Why wait for a car purchase, or a house purchase, or anything else big? The current unnecessary war is increasing inflation across the board. Economic uncertainty is climbing. Interest rates are about to go up. And unless you’re looking at something really small and fuel efficient, we’re not yet done with the gas issue.
TBQ: the last time I bought a new car was in September. Of 1995.
I bought in October cause the deals were good. It was 2018.
I now drive a 2000 model year and a 1990. My wife drives a 2013. Because new cars are INSANELY expensive.
I keep buying cars in Feb and March, my GF says it’s been because of tax returns?
The GR Corolla I bought 1yr old and over July 4th weekend in 2024. I know the 500 Abarth was late Feb taking advantage of a big rebate for ’13 models to make room for ’14.
2016. I had just gotten my first “big boy” job. The sales guy saw me coming a mile away. I’m pretty sure he sent me Christmas cards for the next couple of years. I’m older and hopefully a little wiser now.
Still have the car thought. 2016 Focus ST in Magnetic.