It’s always hard to give general car advice given how much can vary from brand to brand, market to market, or even between two dealers from the same brand within the same market. If you can get a great deal now, you shouldn’t wait. The numbers don’t lie, though, and the numbers say the average buyer is better off waiting a little.
How much is a little? It’s time to pull out some of my favorite charts for the first Morning Dump of the week. The Average Transaction Price (ATP) for a new car just crested $50,000 again, which isn’t great. Inventory is also tight, though not across the board, so maybe there are deals to be had.
Building Chinese cars in the United States could help lower prices, maybe. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as well as some of the current Trump administration are against such a move. There’s only one major proponent for it: President Trump. Weird! And speaking of weird, Tesla teased an announcement for what looks like the long-delayed Roadster.
Average Transaction Price Is Over $50,000 Once More
Below is a chart of Average Transaction Price, which could be a graph of just about any consumer good over the last few years, with the exception of flat-screen televisions.
ATP crested $50,000 for the first time ever last October, retreated ever-so-slightly after Christmas, and is now back up again. The semiconductor shortage gave automakers a reason to raise prices, and I don’t think there’s ever going to be a reason for them to lower them.
How did the price go up so much? Here’s another graphic, also from Cox Automotive/KBB:
You can see the level of incentives is going down a bit as manufacturers are backing off support a little. Here’s how Cox’s Erin Keating frames it:
“We expected transaction prices to move back above the $50,000 mark in 2026, as new-vehicle prices typically increase through the year and especially in the second half, when next-model-year vehicles begin arriving at dealerships. New-vehicle price inflation is real, but automotive price increases have been moderate in recent years and remain below the long-term average of roughly 3%. At the same time, many American households are under significant financial pressure, which is steering more shoppers toward lower price points. The continued strong growth of Subcompact SUVs highlights how important affordability remains in today’s market.”
Some of this is seasonal, as ATP tends to climb towards the back half of the year. Some of this is inventory, as 2027 MY cars are slow to roll out and automakers are still trying to adjust to tariffs. I think some of it is the impact of higher destination charges working its way into the numbers, though this is also a tariff-related outcome.
With fewer cars, less money from automakers, and lower foot traffic, it’s just not a great time for the average dealer to try and cut prices. When 2027 MY cars start arriving and inventory creeps up at the end of the year, as it often does, that’s probably the best time to try to buy a car.
Again, this is not vehicle specific, as you might be able to get the best deal on a RAV4 Hybrid in October. The cheapest Mazda MX-5 sold this year could have been three weeks ago in Omaha. These types of charts only give an overall look, and the overall look says to hold off buying a car a few months.
Maybe Now Is A Good Time To Buy A Jeep
Charts? You want more charts? Stop screaming, I’ll make it happen. Jeez.
One of my absolute favorite ways to look at the car market is this chart of Days’ Supply, which shows who has too many or too few cars relative to the national average. As usual, the Toyota brands are all the way to the left, well below the national average, and the Stellantis brands are way to the right.
Jeep has been rolling out the new mid Jeep Cherokee Hybrid, which might explain why the brand has so much days supply that it’s fallen off the chart. The other reason is that Jeep offers a bunch of fairly average cars and builds way more of those models than the market can currently support. This is why being a little less picky about what car you want could mean a good deal on a Jeep or a Dodge right now, depending on the model.
There’s something here that’s not quite as clear on the graph, but Cox Automotive explains in better detail:
The rollout of model-year 2027 vehicles accelerated in August, with next-model-year vehicles represented 12.4% of available inventory at month-end, more than double the 5.6% share recorded in July. Even with that increase, the transition remains well behind last year’s pace. At the end of August 2025, model-year 2026 vehicles accounted for 23% of available inventory, nearly twice the current share.
The arrival of model-year 2027 vehicles is uneven across the industry. Kia, Cadillac, BMW and Lincoln have already seen growing availability, while Toyota, VW and Subaru remain much earlier in the rollout. The contrast is especially notable at Toyota and Lexus, where inventory remains among the tightest in the industry and next-model-year vehicles remain limited.
This time last year there were way more new MY vehicles available, which helped push ATP down a bit as dealers were offering more incentives to get 2025 cars off the lot. This also means that maybe Cadillac is a decent place to look for a deal.
President Trump Would Be ‘OK’ With Chinese Cars Built In America
Hmm. So.
“Now, if China wanted to come in and open a plant to build their cars here, I’d be OK with it,” President Trump told Fox News host Laura Ingraham last week, adding that the Japanese carmakers do it, but they hire “our” people.
This is a curious position, although similar to what he’s said in the past. The curiosity comes from the timing, given the letter that Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy sent to Ford last week complaining about the company working with Chinese automakers. This is also against the backdrop of leaders from both parties trying to push a ban on Chinese connected cars, which won’t allow a carmaker to sell a car here if it has more than 15% Chinese ownership. How would that square with BYD opening up a factory in, say, Arizona.
President Trump also responded to rumors that a deal with China might include building plants in the United States, calling it a “phony rumor” and then falsely claiming there are no Chinese cars in the country (Polestar, Buick, and Lincoln have imported cars, and Waymo uses Chinese-built, Chinese-branded Zeekrs).
Is The Tesla Roadster Finally Coming?
There’s a new teaser from Tesla and it looks like this:
Most of the talk about the Tesla Roadster lately has centered less on its rocket thrusters, and more on the fact that its taken so long that its deposit holders have been trying to get their money back. The Roadster was initially unveiled in 2017, but has been delayed again and again.
The image above is from the Roadster page on the Tesla website, so something is happening on October 1st. Here’s Bloomberg with some informed speculation:
The fall event, which has been eagerly anticipated by Tesla fans, is likely to fuel even more speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX. “Go for launch” is a nod to SpaceX’s rocket launches, and Tesla has used its live events to gin up enthusiasm among customers and investors.
Tesla, like most tech stocks, is taking it in the shorts today (actually, the shorts might be doing well), so anything to drum up excitement will please shareholders.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is there a best version of “You’ve Really Got A Hold On Me” out there? I’m partial to the Smokey Robinson version, but both The Beatles and the OG Peggy Lee version could claim GOAT status.
The Big Question
The last time you bought a new car, what month was it? Did you wait for a specific time or did you just go when you needed a car?
Top photo: Toyota
I last bought a car the last week of January in 2012. It was my Tacoma, it was used (I’ve never bought a new car) and I bought it because my significant other was tired of me repairing my 97 Nissan truck every weekend.
I wanted a newer truck and it was suggested I get one with 4wd, extended cab and an auto, but those tacos were too expensive. I would guess they still are more than I paid for my single cab 2wd stick 5 lug.
December 2002. Traded a 626 that I had literally just been in a fender bender with for a Colorado Red Passat GLS with the Monsoon sound and heated seats. What a nice car that was. It’s hard to imagine buying a new car again; for one thing, they just aren’t that attractive to me with all the tech. I had a Hyundai Tuscon as a rental a couple of weeks ago and felt like that thing was beeping at me all the time. I’m going to have to make my peace with this at some point, though. Can’t drive the Sonata forever and all the tech shit is here to stay.
Bought a ’26 Pilot Touring 1 month ago. Been looking on and off for months, finally battled with the dealer for a few hours on price and Add Ons (hitch and heated wheel) and made the deal.
I felt so cheated to learn the Trailsport we bought comes with a hitch but WITHOUT THE DAMN WIRING HARNESS. I chuckled to the sales team when they recommended I just pay service $1600 to have it installed.
I think it was $1200 for the hitch, harness, different trim panel the hitch fit into, and an adaptor for the kick to open hatch.
I bought the harness from College Hills Honda for $190 and installed it myself
Didn’t this administration get mad at Ford for collaborating with Chinese brands just last week?
There’s no confidence that anything said by this administration is worth more than a used 2-ply Kleenex.
Last new car was in October 2021, during COVID. RAV4 Hybrid. Had to drive 100 miles away to get it, because the local dealer a) didn’t have any hybrids in stock and b) tacked on a couple of grand in markups when they did.
It was a higher trim level than we’d have otherwise chosen and it sucked paying full MSRP, but at least no ADM. We pretty much gave away the trade in (2011 Sorento) but it was to the point where we didn’t trust it for long trips and had to do something.
Next up will be a new truck and a step up from a half ton to three quarter. Given prices, it’s going to have to be used.
Last time i bought a new car, i bought it in Dec. I had started shopping in September, decided on one in October, had to wait for it to arrive in December.
If you’re looking for consistency from the President it’s … pudding skin. He has the consistency of pudding skin
Last month that I bought a new car? Technically, May (‘86), though I had to wait until June to pick it up at the factory as it came off the line.
TBQ: Bought my new Wrangler last April. My priority was (as always) getting the vehicle I want rather than getting a good deal. I am rarely concerned with getting the best price on anything, my less cars – I just want to avoid getting too screwed. If saving money was my priority, I would have bought a used Malibu or Escape and not a new Wrangler.
I see nothing wrong with someone making money off me, as long as they are adding value somehow. Value isn’t always economic – getting me the very specific vehicle I want with minimal bullshit definitely counts as adding value.
No regerts with my purchase as of yet.
My last new car was a 2018 Fiata bought in February of 2019. Prior was a ’17 GTI bought in February of 2017. Before that a BMW M235i ordered Spring of 2015 and delivered in August. ’13 Fiat 500 Abarth in January of ’13. My 328! was ordered Spring of 2011 and delivered in July. I just buy cars when I feel like it, unless there is a super deal to be had like the ’08 Saab 9-3SC I bought in the GM Saab fire sale in 2009. I think that was in March or April. I bought the last leftover stickshift Combi in the country for 40% off list.
I guess technically I bought my Mom’s car (KIA Soul) because she actually needed a car, in April of ’23. She and Volvos just don’t get along, so the V70 needed to GO, because Mom’s car problems are MY car problems. Should be her last ride unless she totals it. Dull but worthy, and most importantly, she LOVES it.
Buying new cars was fun when they still had cars that didn’t suck to sell. I’m out. I just had both 2011 BMWs detailed and they look like new. And the driveway for my new garage with attached living quarters got poured today! Getting closer…
Bought in June 2024. I had a feeling the EV tax credit was not long for this world. The manufacturer was offering super low interest financing and I could order the exact vehicle I wanted. That replaced a vehicle I’d previously purchased new thirteen years ago but was no longer meeting my uses. Quite happy purchasing new since a used one would have been only a few thousand cheaper at the end of the loan.
“The (new) Walk of Shame,” . . . You – trudging out of the Jeep/Chrysler/Dodge finance office with new key fob in hand, head down, salesman’s hand on you shoulder leading you to your new model year 2025 Hornet . . .
Pretty soon Mark will be able to feature those on SBSD, brand new off the dealership lot.
That there is one of those unwarranted assumptions I keep hearing about.
Does he know his audience here? 🙂
TBQ: I waited until I needed a car, but also timed things a bit. I went to Edmunds and say that several potential replacements had rebates that were expiring soon, and none of the incentives were impressive. I figured that the incentives for late summer might be better and put off car shopping for a week or two to see if better incentives were going to be announced.
I bought in May 2014 because I was tired of paying for repairs on my old car and Ford had 0% financing and the exact car I wanted on the lot.
Same here, Memorial Day weekend 2014. Scored $2500 in rebates on a 5 speed Fiesta. New out the door for $12,925. Combo of no one wanted small cars as gas was cheap, and the auto DSG had destroyed the reputations of the Fiesta and Focus. So lots of rebates to move em out. Because it was a 5 speed there was about 1k+ delete deduction on the window sticker for “downgrading” from the DSG. Irony.
Hell yea. I got the Fiesta ST which had just arrived at local dealers so I just paid MSRP and was happy to not be gouged.
October in the rain, 2004. Needed it because I realised the pretty September morning mist following me around was from my exhaust.
Head gasket gone, and when they took the head off found someone previously had managed to chisel off two of the lugs on the block meant to align things properly…
Next one will be electric.
At the moment EV second hand market does not seem sufficiently organised for comprehensive and certified battery checks to buy second hand, although there is a dam about to break as all the three year long-term leases signed in 2022 -23 hit the market.
We will see.
The battery is one of those things where you’ll almost certainly be fine, and it’s under warranty for at least 8 years.
I anticipate this misconception to go away about 5-8 years after the idea of hybrids being “new technology”…
My ‘23 Bolt is going back in a couple weeks. Super clean and literally has never given me a problem. That should be a good one for somebody!!
Used EV batteries are a slight risk, although most are lasting much better than expected.
Shopping for my used Volt (which just had a new battery installed at the dealer!). I still had an OBD reader and a Volt specific app to test the battery. Definitely not something for the average consumer to do.
Needed a car, so bought a car.
Last time I bought a new car it was June 2014. Bought it because we had to. A two-adult household in LA needs two cars. How do I know? I took a bus from Santa Monica to El Segundo. This is typically a half hour drive. It took 2 hours and three buses. Saw one racially charged confrontation. Saw a crazy guy dart out of the bus and pee in the bushes in full view of everyone on the bus.
Still have yet to buy a brand new car and I am almost 34 now. Only thing I could see buying new would be the R3X or a Slate if they last long enough to have a 4×4 option. Scouts if they do come out are going to be way to expensive for me to get brand new.
I’m 55 and the only brand new vehicle I have ever purchased was a bicycle.
TBQ:
10 years ago next month. 4Runner. SR5s were easy to get $2,000-3,000 off MSRP because people thought they needed the off road versions. Worked via email with 5 regional dealers to get the best price, my local one matched it and intercepted one in the color I wanted.
Easy, stress free experience because unlike today’s “Bow before us if you want one” Toyota, we held better cards. It’s been paid off for 6 years and after perusing the current 4R and Land Cruiser I’m perfectly fine standing pat for another 5 years.
Well, guess I’m that guy. We bought a ’26 CRV-H last September. It was a timed buy and we used a buying service. Service paid for itself in pain and suffering for our old very busy selves. We generally do not buy new but my wife had squirreled away her pandemic overtime (medical field) and it’s what she wanted to do. Her MO is she will keep it until we can’t drive anymore.
Back on subject – September was very good for our purchase. Dealer was so hungry they brought it to us with all paperwork pre-filled. We handed them a cashiers check and signed literally four forms on our dining room table. No add-ons, no nonsense. All that mattered to the dealer was turning the unit before September 30th.
Last new car I bought was my ’24 Kia Forte GT in February 2025. I got a great deal on it as it was one of the last few new GTs left on the lots after the K4 rollout. When it got totalled by a red-light runner in December, I replaced it with a CPO ’24 Integra. New is nice, but CPO on a “premium” vehicle is the way to go.
My last new car was in September of 2021. It was a bad time to buy a truck, but it’s when I needed one. It seemed overpriced at the time, but to buy a similar truck now would be almost $20,000 more. I’ve bought a couple used cars since then, but I tend to stay away from new cars when I can. The truck was an unusual condition and market in 2021, where a 2-3 year old truck was only going to save me about $2,000 vs a new one with my supplier discount. So no brainer to go new.
Market is definitely taking a turn. Especially around here in the Seattle area. Still looking for a rav 4 for my girlfriend and all basically sold before they get to the lot.
Have waitlist a few palces so seeing what pops up.
There is also a VERY scummy dealer around selling a bunch of “pre-owned” vehicles for 8-12K over MSRP. With about 30 miles on each.
Gee, I Wonder how that happened
Being a little less picky to get a deal is one thing. Buying an absolute trainwreck of a Jeep because its cheap is a horrible idea.
I have a feeling that if you graphed “Days in the shop” it would also have the Jeep on the far right side of the x-axis as well.
Name checks out.
But then I’d have to own a new Stellantis product, so I think I’m good.