It sometimes feels like we’re entering the ‘soft bigotry of low expectations’ phase when it comes to the non-hybrid EV market. There has been a lot of bad news lately and the market has softened a lot. I look at it the other way, and see that EVs were victim of a somewhat opposite effect: the hard bias of high expectations. Yes, EV sales dropped this quarter, and politics is partially to blame, but prospects aren’t all that terrible.
The rest of The Morning Dump will be consumed by some familiar topics. Stellantis sales for the whole globe were reported today and the company’s sales are increasing, thanks mostly to America. Time continues to be a flat circle as UAW President Shawn Fain is reportedly under the eye of the DOJ over claims he used his position to help out his family.
Volkswagen’s plans to cut jobs cratered due to labor, which has claimed a lack of trust in the current CEO and helped to kill his massive plans.
It’s Hard To Know What The EV Market Should Look Like
There are two ways to look at this graph of year-over-year changes in EV sales volume from Cox Automotive. If you’re an EV pessimist, you see a quickly declining graph of acceptance that shows people do not want electric cars. If you’re an EV optimist, you see the evil work of the government interfering in the market (or, well, stopping its interference in the market).
I disagree with both views, which is easy to do since they are rhetorical devices I invented myself for the purpose of having something to disagree with, though I believe they are generally valid. What’s interesting to me here is that year-over-year sales briefly peaked before the Inflation Reduction Act went into effect in Q3 2022 and have never quite recovered.
This was one of the moments for me when my doubts that we’d see a 50% EV market by 2030 were solidified. Quarterly sales graphs sometimes hide what this sales momentum chart show. The reality is, with the EVs that we were given, sales momentum was always going to continue to drop. In a way, the Inflation Reduction Act could be viewed as a massive pulling-forward of EV sales for some who were interested. Given how automakers were also subsidizing EV development through massive losses, there’s also a large amount (especially with leases) of on-the-fence buyers opting for great deals.
Sales growth was down 20.5% year-over-year, but that’s an improvement over the last three quarters. Because of the sugar rush of sales before the IRA expired in Q3 2025 I suspect that this trend will reverse itself and we’ll see a huge drop in Q3 2026, before a recovery in Q4.
Without the push-and-pull of the IRA, there probably would have been a large leveling off, but that still would have meant growth. My rough guess is that roughly 10% of the current US car market would be fine with an EV today, if only automakers offered enough good affordable EVs. Last quarter we were at about 5.8%.
That isn’t great, and I think this means there’s probably growth to be had here:
New product launches, state-level incentive programs, and continued consumer interest are helping support demand. While the market is smaller than it was, Cox Automotive continues to believe the long-term trajectory for EV adoption remains positive. As Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive notes, “The next phase of EV growth will likely be driven not only by advances in the technology itself, but by how effectively automakers translate those advances into products that meet consumer expectations for affordability, utility, performance, and ownership experience.”
This is where products like the upcoming Ford Ranchero will be interesting to watch.
Stellantis Caring About The United States Is Starting To Pay Off
I finally saw a new Pacifica with the redesigned nose and, you know what, it looks good. I like it. This has always been an attractive, functional van and I enjoy the changes. I’m looking forward to driving it at some point in the future. I’d say the same for the current Ram 1500, which also carries over the brand’s longstanding aesthetic.
Buyers in America agree, and thanks to Ram and Chrysler, Stellantis saw a 38% year-over-year improvement in sales. That’s by far the greatest increase for any region, as Stellantis overall saw only a 5% rise in Europe, no change Asia (where it’s barely a player), and losses in both South America and the Middle East/Africa.
From the company:
The majority of the growth was driven by new or refreshed products and powertrain offerings, including the Ram 1500 (light-duty) HEMI® V8, the new Ram 1500 TRX SRT, the refreshed Jeep® Grand Wagoneer and Grand Cherokee, and the refreshed Chrysler Pacifica, in addition to the continued ramp-up of the all-new Jeep® Cherokee and the all-new Dodge Charger 2-door and 4-door SIXPACK; it also reflects preparations for the planned summer production shutdown.
The company seems to be telegraphing a potential period of slower growth in Q3 as production shifts, so we’ll see.
UAW’s Shawn Fain Under DOJ Investigation
United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain came in with a pledge to restore the union to greatness after a long period of unrest and, notably, so many legal issues that the court appointed a federal monitor (under the Biden Administration). While the UAW has experienced enormous success in negotiations, that monitor has consistently alleged that Fain has flouted rules and used his position to punish foes and aid his family members.
Now, per the Detroit Free Press, the Department of Justice is investigating Fain. While the claims appear consistent with what the monitor found, Fain says he’s being targeted ahead of a union election:
“We are going to fight back hard,” he said in a statement July 12.
Fain also decried the investigation, blaming current UAW Vice President Rich Boyer for attempting to undermine Fain’s credibility before the two face off soon in a six-way race for the UAW presidency. Boyer, who has feuded with Fain since 2024, has long claimed Fain disciplined him after he objected to Fain trying to influence him over bonuses at the fiancee’s place of work.
The news of the investigation comes about two weeks after the monitor overseeing the union for the federal government published a scathing report in federal court, alleging that Fain did, indeed, retaliate unfairly against Boyer in 2024. At that time, Fain stripped Boyer of his duty overseeing the Stellantis Department — the sector of the union with about 40,000 members who work for the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram family of companies.
Whatever you believe, it’s messy as hell.
VW CEO Takes It On The Chin
Friday was all about Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume’s big package to save the company. That was swiftly rejected, and the reason was that VW’s labor union has a lot of votes on the board and they’re not… on board.
Labor officials wrote to the company’s employees blaming management for stoking fear over job losses and demanding Blume and his team respond by Friday to more than 80 questions to explain their restructuring plan.
After he failed to comply, the works council distributed a special edition of its newspaper to the workforce on Saturday saying Blume will have to answer directly to staff at meetings to be held after the summer break.
There has already been “a massive loss of trust” in Blume, who had portrayed himself when he took charge as someone who wanted to do the job “for the people,” the council wrote.
I generally like the German model of having labor and management work together as, often, it avoids the kind of us-vs-them mentality you get in the United States. The division in a company like VW is a lot more complex, as it’s: large shareholding family v. the government of Lower Saxony v. labor v. management.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I somehow missed that Japanese Breakfast’s song “Men in Bars” features Jeff Bridges. Yes, that Jeff Bridges.
The Big Question
What % of the new car market in the United States, in a vacuum, do you think should be electric cars?
Top photo: Cox Automotive/Cadillac
To answer TBQ with utmost accuracy, 100%. Because ICE vehicles wouldn’t function in a vacuum. I’m not sure what the point would be as we’d all be dead, but you’d be better off with an electric vehicle.
Dammit!
If that were to suddenly happen Jason has a great article on getting the Lunar rover functional https://www.theautopian.com/heres-the-minimum-it-would-take-to-get-the-lunar-rovers-running-again-when-we-get-back-to-the-moon/
In a vacuum 100%, since all combustion engines rely on oxygen in the atmosphere to operate. We actually don’t have to guess at this – if we look at other (non-US) celestial bodies such as the Moon and Mars which lack oxygenated atmospheres, we indeed see 100% electrification.
I really opened myself up to this one.
RE: EV sales in the US.
Is it me or do people not react to high gas prices anymore? When I was a kid growing up in the late 70’s-80’s and early 90’s every time there was a recession or gas prices went up what people drove changed. A lot of people drove small econo cars. I just randomly looked and the best selling vehicles in the US in 1985 was the Chevy Celebrity, Ford Escort, and Chevy Cavalier. When I later moved to California in the late 90’s and when the recessions and gas shocks came in the early 2000’s the used car lots were FULL of cheap full sized trucks.
But now? Right now, as in June of 2026 the best selling vehicles in the US are Ford F-150’s, Chevy Silverados, GMC Sierras, Ram trucks and Honda CR-V’s for some reason. In other words, unlike all of the other times in US history where people reacted to high gas prices by buying more fuel efficient cars they’re STILL buying these YUGE things, apparently super happy to pay $5-6 a gallon to run them too.
WTF happened? Are people just happy to stay in debt indefinitely?
Well, I think one of the things that happened is that there are so many fewer visibly smaller actual cars to distinguish from the mass of large, blobby crossovers and crew cab pickups.
Also, people are locked into longer-term loans for larger amounts of money, so they can’t pivot as quickly.
Also also, marketing has convinced people that they need the 100% solution 100% of the time, so they are less willing to just get “an car” that is cheap and basic and efficient, but can’t carry 7 people, a dog, and a month’s worth of luggage while towing a boat for the one time in their life where that situation occurs.
Also x3, there just aren’t as many people with the readies to just buy a used car (which aren’t available in the quantities for cheap as they used to be) to deal with a sudden surge in gas prices.
Also^4 I think that pay at the pump using a credit card has somewhat divorced the reality of high gas prices from when you had to lay down actual folding cash on the counter.
What happened is:
1) Median income is higher, even inflation adjusted. No one here likes it when I say this, but the typical person lives better than their parents, and that is even more true for the types of people buying a $60K truck.
2) Large vehicles get much better fuel economy than before, so small economy cars aren’t as necessary to save money. My parents have a Grand Highlander Hybrid that seats 7 adults, but gets 33 mpg. Full size trucks can get 20, not 11 as they used to.
It’s a rare person who actively wants a small car; most who buy them feel compelled to. Nowadays that’s less necessary.
I think its less to do with higher median incomes and the level of debt both banks are willing to stomach and consumers willing to get into it. Right now the average debt of the typical American household is over $150,000. A lot of that is related to credit cards, auto loans, and other stuff they’re on the hook for. That works out to a phenomenal 20 Trillion dollars of debt for the entire country. To put that into perspective the entire US economy is worth around 30 trillion. So think about that for just a second. That is insane. And its so far removed from any resemblance of fiscal responsibility.
And we are partially like this because nobody every paid the price for the last few recessions. The government bailed it all out every single time, printed money, and now we as a country are some 40 Trillion in debt. The recessions were never really allowed to run their courses, which is a good thing in general as it cuts the chaff and snaps people back into reality.
So now we have a whole country filled with people having grown up and existed in a country that has put itself into an insane amount of debt so it can both pay off the irresponsible debt and financial decisions the average American makes-whether its in buying overpriced McMansions or jacked-up Silverados getting maaaaayyybbeeee 17 MPG at $6 a gallon.
Setting aside full size trucks (which have basically retained market share over the decades) the typical crossover gets way better fuel economy than an old sedan. The best selling non-trucks are the CR-V and RAV4. More than half of the CR-Vs that Honda sells are hybrids that get 37 mpg. 100% of RAV4s are hybrid that crack the 40 mpg barrier.
As to debt? Yes, a large percentage of US households are happy to stay in debt indefinitely. They think based on monthly payments not actual cost. Which is also why there is backlash right now as interest rates went from a decade of almost free back to historical norms. That Highlander buyer is having to go to a 72 year loan to keep the same payment as what they had a few years ago and the dealer is happy to do that for them. The dealer mantra is to never talk price – only payments.
Depending how you define “electric vehicle”, I see an explosion of electric vehicles in my area. But not from cars; rather from electric stand-up scooters and electric bicycles. These sorts of “electric vehicles” have become the modern equivalent of the Vespa or Honda Super Cub, providing cheap motorized transportation to people who could not otherwise afford motorized transportation at all.
“This was one of the moments for me when my doubts that we’d see a 50% EV market by 2030 were solidified.”
50% EVs by 2030 was never an actual goal in the USA. (100% by 2035 wasn’t either – even in California)
50% EV – all homeowners with a garage or ability to charge at home should have one. Apartments/condo/garage Managers need to get on board with providing L2 charging.
25% Hybrid – For the users that do 500 mile commutes every day or can’t home charge
25% ICE – Applications where ICE is the right tool for the job or you have 1k commute everyday uphill in -20 degree temps
So at least at the car dealership I work at, we ran out of EVs in early May and our incoming inventory is pre-sold. We’d sell more if we had more but we are heavily inventory limited. I think there’s a strong market for EVs of certain brands and demographics and those are the ones that are currently trying to meet demand.
For example if you were an average shopper interested in an EV for your next car, would you jump to Stellantis or VW from Toyota or just wait for Toyota to get more EVs in stock?
It would be interesting to see the EV percentage in Canada, especially here in Quebec. The dealers can’t keep them on the lot. GM and Hyundai/Kia are dominating here in the EV’s. Tesla has been relegated to doing “OK” in Quebec.
P.S.: charging infrastructure makes all the difference for adoption. We’re close to 40,000 public chargers now with a goal of 100,000 by 2030ish.
TBQ: I’ll be realistic and say 80%. Are we counting hybrids? Then mo-def 80%, because, as the kids say, “eff ICE”.
As for that phrase used in the single (?) quote marks, in the lede?
Turns out the “soft expectations” business was coined by Michael Gerson, the hack whose job it was to write words to make President Dubyuh seem smart.
As a cancer guy myself, I get to say it brought me joy to learn that Gerson popped his clogs from kidney cancer at 58, some years back.
Not as much joy as hearing the good news about Lindsey, but up there.
(I’ll grant that it’s often an apt phrase and used properly, here; I steal it myself sometimes.)
10 percent EVs is about right unless/until a better range/recharge paradigm is developed.
70 percent could probably be a hybrid of some type, from mild to EREV.
The remaining 20 percent should be ICE alone, both for purists and for applications where hybrids may not be best suited (low weight sports cars, HD trucks, very cheap entry-level vehicles, etc).
Should be: 3 out of 4
This supports the concept that most driving is less than 20 miles a day.
Of the other 1 out of 4, 3 out of 4 should be pickups doing real work.
What’s left is enthusiasts.
What percentage?
Whatever the percentage in the US that is households with driving age adults who have BOTH access to home level-2 220v charging (homeowners?) for only car applications (level-1 charging may be sufficient for 2-car EV/ICE combo families), and can afford a new car.
If you can only have ONE vehicle, and almost all (95%?) of your trips are within 200 miles a day, then I now will admit that you -can- get by with an EV as your one-and-only vehicle, since the high speed charging options along heavly travelled corridors are now sufficient to make road trips possible (not cheaper, not faster, not easier… but at least possible).
If you need more daily range, or need to tow, than the EV option can make sense as a 2nd vehicle, which still can work out for his/her 2-car families. Simple 120v level-1 charging would probably even work in that use case.
It’s now just about having daily level-2 home charging as an option, as well as the affordability.
Between 55 – 60% of US households live in single family homes with dedicated off street parking.
That’s a larger number than I expected.
I wonder what the historical percentage is for new car buyers who are also homeowners / live where they can access a 220v outlet?
My guess is it’s a bit lower. My thinking is some homeowners may not have the extra budget for a new car and/or maybe more pragmatic with their money and lean towards shopping for used.
Regardless, the influx of gently used EVs coming off of 2-year leases is going to hurt the new EV market for the next year or so. The sales numbers will remain skewed by the influence of those deep EV tax credits that even though expired, still effect the residual pricing, making slightly used EVs a hell of a bargain. Our extended family has enjoyed great new and used EV pricing this past year (CPO 24 Ioniq 6, used 24 EV-6, and a new 26 Ioniq 5) with deeply discounted purchases.
This is a relatively small, so flawed sample size. But on my block we have one family with three brand new vehicles. two Rams and an Escalade. Across the street two new Ford EVs (Mach E and F150) plus a used flex for their kid. Then it’s a mix as you move down the block of brand new cars, and older cars.
I’d say homeowners with new cars is hovering around the 50-60% mark in my neighborhood.
Then there’s me with my decade/decades old cars, always been a non-conformist.
Regarding the charging speed, L1 is fine unless someone averages more than 30-40mi or so a day.
L1 (US: 120v-15amp circuit, 12 amp continuous) is safely good for about 1.4kw. A modern CUV should average 300wh/mi or so (cars are more efficient). Rounding down, that’s 3-4 mile/hour of charging so if the car can average being at home for 10 hours per night it can maintain 30-40mi driving per day on average. If it isn’t driven as much on weekends or has a longer charge window (sleeping in) then it’s a net positive.
Even then, with most modern EVs having 2-300mi capable packs going over that average mileage long-term just means topping off at a DCFC every so often. Pretty much every metro area (ie. where most people actually live) has DCFCs scattered about at convenient locations (malls, grocery stores, etc) so it’s not a big deal to handle.
TBQ: Maybe 5 to 10 percent. They’re good for runabouts but people want more.
TBQ: If the automakers hadn’t moved upmarket so fast and decisively leaving the $45k compact crossover segment saturated with hardly any cheaper, smaller cars other than the aging Nissan Leaf during the Chevy Bolt’s hiatus, they should be at around a solid 10% in a bad month by now.
TBQ: 106.2% Approximately.
TBQ: What percent should be? What a vague question?
If I was a 2CV fanatic should 100% of the US car market be 2CV’s?
The car market should be based on what people want at the price they want it at. EV’s will come as the price drops and more options become avaliable, no need to rush it.
I mean TBQ is usually vague or open ended so people can make a claim and debate it., this one’s not really different.