An alternative version of the headline for The Morning Dump was going to be “the one chart that has me worried about Stellantis,” but I may be to the acceptance part of my relationship with the company. Maybe this is who they are, and I’m the weirdo for thinking they should change.
Yes, I’m talking about inventory, and that starts with I, though it certainly doesn’t rhyme with pool. If you’re the CEO of Stellantis do you view this as a transitory phase or do you maybe think that you’ve got trouble? The same can probably said for Japanese automakers, who keep thinking that they’ll get out of this tariff mess without much further injury and keep finding themselves back under the Eye of Sauron, or the eye of something that rhymes with Sauron. Volkswagen seems fully aware of how this affects the company and is going to save billions of Euros by cutting jobs.
The great Canadian hockey player Gordie Howe did plenty in his life to merit a bridge being named after him between Canada and the United States. Here’s hoping it opens at some point!
Stellantis Brands Have Twice The National Average When It Comes To Inventory
I haven’t asked AI to write a TMD for me because writing TMD is something I love to do. If it did I’m sure it would say something like “I want to talk to you about my favorite chart.” I’m realizing I say this all the time, and that it covers a wide range of charts. Maybe I just love charts?
Anyway, I want to talk to you today about my favorite chart…
This comes via Cox Automotive and shows the amount of inventory for each brand and the nation as a whole, which it measures in Days’ Supply, which is to say how many days at the current selling rate it would take for all the inventory to be depleted. The national average is about 76 as of May, which is a healthy and patriotic number that has come to a reasonably healthy balance lately.
Generally, if you’re to the left of that line it means you’ve got a lot of demand (Honda), not a lot of supply (Audi), or some mix of both (Toyota and Lexus). People tend to claim that Toyota intentionally keeps the market squeezed by maintaining tight supply and that’s maybe true, but it seems to be working out for them. For small brands, the rollout of a new product or other production changes can shift this some. Generally, though, healthy is somewhere around the average.
Erin Keating provides a general view of what’s going on:
May inventory reached 2.89 million units, up from 2.86 million in April, 5.6% above January, and 13% higher than a year earlier. Even so, the broader pattern remains one of steady supply rather than renewed accumulation. That year-over-year increase also reflects a tougher comparison base: Spring 2025 inventory was depleted by a sales pace that ran above 17 million SAAR in March and April, draining dealer lots.
At the brand level, Nissan remains the clearest example of the broader thesis: Days’ supply fell to 82 in May, down from both April and a year earlier, largely because sales accelerated. The opposite pattern remains most visible at Stellantis, where Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep continued to post materially higher supply levels year over year as inventory growth outpaced demand. Together, those cases explain the market well: Tighter supply where sales are working, looser supply where sale volume is not clearing inventory fast enough.
Yeah, so, Stellantis. I’m excited for what the various Stellantis brands are going to be selling in the next few years, including a Jeep Scrambler, a new Dakota and Rampage, and some other cool stuff. Very little of what they’ve talked about is for sale now, though, and that’s a problem. While V8 Hemi-powered trucks and SUVs will definitely help find some lost customers, and the Jeep Cherokee fills a hole in the lineup, there’s still not enough there there.
The CDJR brands are still volume brands, and that means that the company needs to sell a lot of them to be profitable, and that means getting vehicles to dealers. Where the company has run into trouble in the past is that it ended up with a glut of inventory and then had to heavily discount that inventory with incentive spending. Based on the above, it seems like there are a lot more cars on lots than there are customers to buy them.
If you’re in the market for a vehicle and are willing to try a CDJR brand this might be a good time to get a deal. The brands are doing a big marketing push and it’s possible this will all correct itself. With new models coming, there’s probably a little bit of cupboard-stuffing so dealers don’t run short, though I sort of doubt that’s most of what we’re seeing.
It’s something I’m going to keep my eye on for the next few months.
Various Tariff And Regulation Changes Could Cost Japanese Automakers $40 Billion By Next Year
There are still plenty of tariffs in place, and they’re hitting even companies that make a ton of cars in the United States, like Honda and Toyota. Then there’s the whiplash of regulations around electrification and emissions. It’s tough, and every time Japanese automakers think the government has it figured out, The White House tweaks something, or threatens to tweak something, or threatens to not tweak something.
Currently, Automotive News thinks all of this is going to cost Japanese automakers about $40 billion by March of next year. So, the Chairman of Toyota may be happy wearing the President’s face on a shirt, but it’s the CEO who has to account for it:
Adjusting to the new realities is a work in progress, Toyota CEO Kenta Kon said last month in announcing the company’s financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31. Toyota’s North American unit slumped to a rare loss, causing parent company operating profit to fall for a third straight year.
“Our response to changes in the operating environment has been limited to measures that can be implemented in the short term, while progress on the business structure transformation that should be pursued from a mid- to long-term perspective remains only partway complete,” he said.
“We were not able to fully offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.”
And this all comes after automakers followed Biden era policies around electrification and then had to take huge write-downs to cover investments that haven’t panned out.
Volkswagen Will Cut 19,000 Jobs By The End Of The Year
I’ve covered Volkswagen’s issues here in detail, but the bottom line is that the company has way too much capacity relative to demand for its products, and that means a lot of jobs gone. According to Handelsblatt, that number will start at 19,000 jobs gone this year:
According to its boss, Oliver Blume, Volkswagen is making progress in its cost-cutting efforts. The workforce at Volkswagen AG in Germany, including the plants in Saxony and Osnabrück, will decrease by 19,000 by the end of the year, according to the text of the speech for next week’s annual general meeting, published on Thursday.
More than 28,000 exits have been contractually agreed upon by 2030. Factory costs at the German sites have been reduced by more than a fifth.
Volkswagen launched its first cost-cutting programs at the end of 2023 and reached an agreement with employees shortly before Christmas 2024 on the elimination of 35,000 jobs by 2030. According to the prepared text of his speech, Blume stated that the first financial effects of these measures are measurable. Sustainable cost savings of around one billion euros have already been achieved.
I hope our guy is spared.
Will The Gordie Howe Bridge Ever Open?
The Gordie Howe International Bridge–named for a Canadian hockey player who represented the Detroit Red Wings–is supposed to be an important link between neighbors who do a lot of business together. That it’s become a political footba… hockey puck is a little sad but not surprising. The bridge, downstream of Detroit’s Ambassador Bridge, is supposed to be open soon, and it’ll maybe happen, at some point.
Here’s The Detroit News on the sad back-and-forth from current Governor Gretchen Whitmer:
Later Thursday morning, Whitmer was asked if she could provide any additional information about why the ribbon-cutting was delayed. The second-term Democratic governor said she didn’t have any more information to share.
“I don’t have anything more to share,” Whitmer added. “I don’t.”
When asked if it was a surprise to her that the ribbon-cutting ceremony in Windsor was called off for Friday, Whitmer said yes and no.
Then, she walked away from a Detroit News reporter who was asking her about the bridge.
The article basically makes it clear that no one is willing to say what’s happening, when it’ll open, or why it isn’t open yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
If you did not get my reference earlier, it was to “Ya Got Trouble” from the classic The Music Man.
The Big Question
Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?
Top photo: DepositPhotos.com
I’m not a huge fan of the current gen of ram but that’s probably the only thing I would be interested in. Maybe a Cummins or the cheapest work truck spec regular cab there is with the pentastar. Their electric and hybrid stuff scares me. Maybe if there was a crazy deal on a 500e I would consider it. The free leases were interesting I haven’t seen any screaming deals on those. The wagoneer s had some crazy lease deals but haven’t seen much lately nor would really want to buy one or lease one.
TBQ: I’d take a Ram, not sure which one. A Power Wagon (gas version of course as it would actually be used off-road), or a diesel 2500 crew cab 8 ft bed (it’s not a truck without a long bed).
I thought I liked the, and I want to like the, Wagoneer/Grand Wagoneer, but after having 2 rentals with 25k miles on them they didn’t seem to age well. Being able to tow various trailers while hauling the family and dog in comfort (the long version is larger than Ford’s Excursion).
If the Grand Cherokee had a V8 I’d be interested in that. Although I’ve had a 4xe rental that was quite nice and a 4 cylinder rental with 23k miles on it that seemed much more worn out than it should be at that mileage, very similar to the Wagoneer rentals.
I had a V6 Grand Cherokee L as a rental last summer and I kind of loved it. Can’t speak to the reliability.
Charon?
Might be kind of a dark reference, but then his parents were pretty dark people.
(Charon was the character in Greek mythology who ferried spirits across the river Styx into the underworld)
I assumed he was going for “moron”.
Ah, possibly. I pronounce Sauron as “sahr-on” so it didn’t click.
Ram 2500 Black Express with the snow plow option.
You seem to have a type.
Absolutely. Dodge fan for life.
Favorite movie: Music Man. Favorite line: Rhymes with Sauron.
I would love to replace my JKU with a new Rubicon with the big tire package but I cannot justify the cost and lower quality and lack of warranty of my 2012 sport s.
I have both pictures with, and signatures from, Gordie Howe from when I was a kid.
I’m sad this bridge is becoming such a boondoggle because of border relations.
TBQ:
I still wanna try a Hurricane powered Ram out.
isn’t it also b/c some rich MF owns the Ambassador and doesn’t want to give up toll revenue?
It’s all bullshittery and fuckery. The whole lot of it.
Are you including the new bridge? I remember hearing the Ambassador costs auto plants on both sides millions of dollars a day b/c of its congestion and deterioration. I am sure there’s plenty of shady stuff with the new one, but overall it seems like it’s a positive, no?
My take: it’s all been heavily ‘lobbied’ by the Moroun family.
The Ambassador bridge is privately owned and continues to raise toll rates; it’s more expensive than the Bluewater bridge (which is further upriver) or the tunnel, and not very connected on the Canadian side (much like the tunnel, it drops you mid-city rather than to a highway). I can’t speak to it’s maintenance history, personally.
The Gordie Howe bridge is shared ownership with Michigan & Canada, with fares to be shared once the construction costs are covered (I haven’t a clue on when that’s projected). It’s also directly connected to on both sides for heavy traffic. It should result in lower costs and quicker transit – leaving the poor Moroun family no option but to lower their crossing fares (which, itself, should be a net positive for everyone)
But, I don’t have political pockets nor do I believe public infrastructure like international crossings should be privately owned, so my view is a bit biased.
I had no idea an individual could own a bridge…
Not just any bridge, but one of the busiest border crossings in the country. It’s pure insanity, especially once you learn about the millions of dollars that the Moroun family has taken from the governments of Canada, The United States, Michigan, and Ontario for improvements to the bridge. In the best case, they never started those improvements, or, worse, destroyed portions of Detroit and Windsor neighborhoods for improvements that were never completed. Free enterprise is good but private ownership of a major border crossing should never have been allowed to occur.
Same here, other than that old joke about buying the Brooklyn bridge and opening a toll booth and being surprised by the results. These are truly special times we’re living in.
TBF they’ve owned it forever. But yeah, sounds like something Mr Burns would do.
Letting a private family hold 2 countries hostage is peak American absurdity.
The Gordie Howe bridge is a positive in every sense of the world, thus the ruling class deny it.
I may not like your Gov’t, but I’m a big fan of a lot of Americans as individuals, and would like a way for us to visit each other.
The same one who’s been donating millions for political ‘lobbying’?
“donating”
Yep. Sounds like a lot like bribes.
Same thing with the current admin. Pay to play all day
For anyone interested, here’s where I learned about this mess:
https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/640-ambassador-bridge/
TBQ: If they piled cash on the hood of the new e-charger I would maybe consider one. But it would have to be a LOT. Like out the door under 25k.
See, I thought that, too, but then I did some research about the large numbers of charging problems and quality issues that they have, and I don’t think I could deal with that, regardless of how fun they are to drive.
Crud. I didn’t research anything more than the couple articles I read.
I guess I am out too.
If I didn’t want something that I could roadtrip a few times a year, it might be different, but numerous accounts of the cars bricking while fast-charging, capping out at 40kW, just plain refusing to charge, etc. etc. etc. really soured me on them. Which is a shame, because the one I test drove was genuinely fun, stupid fast, and had really comfortable seats. If only they had better electronics. If they were built on an 800V architecture and were more reliable, dang.
All of that and the used-marked prices are still staying remarkably high, whereas you can get an (arguably much better) Ioniq5 for $25K all day long with minimal miles.
I drove the Daytona Charger, too, and it was a hoot, but… I don’t know if I’m Stellantis-brave.
Ha. ‘Stellantis-brave’, that’s a keeper. Army strong!
I went through exactly the same thought process. They were advertising R/Ts near me for $37k. But all the stories of no charging or bricked cars scared me away.
Yep, I’m going to end up in a Genesis, Kia or Hyundai, most likely.
We all know Stellantis imploded when David left.
Coincidence?.. Definitely.
Stellantis has little I’m interested in, at least in actually purchasing. Some of their models are interesting, some are ugly, and some are just not my thing. None of them would I use my own money to buy.
What makes it more interesting is that my local CJDR dealer shares a building with my local Toyota dealer (both owned by the same people). The signage on the lot implies it is intended to be a 50/50 split of the CJDR vehicles and Toyota vehicles. It is currently close to 80% CJDR and maybe 15% Toyota, with a remaining 5% empty spots in the Toyota corner (likely for incoming vehicles that will probably be sold before they arrive). I haven’t gone inside to see if they split their sales team between brands, but for their sakes I hope not, because the CJDR stuff just isn’t moving.
TBQ: Short answer: No. Long answer: Nooooooooooo.
I’m not interested in anything that gets crap fuel mileage, and the couple of EVs that they have are deeply non-competitive. They have one hybrid that I can think of, and it’s a terrible car, it sounds like. The Alfa Giulia is cool and all, but that’s not nearly enough. I like my 500e, but that’s because I got an insanely cheap lease on it.
I am not Stellantis’ market. Pass.
I like fuel efficient hatchbacks so not a damn thing they can offer. Maybe a Chrysler Pacifica because they are efficient and great haulers.
i got that reference!!
just saw the travelling stage production on Tuesday
“Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?”
There are several, but none of them are for sale in the USA. If I was forced to pick from the US offerings (and it was free) probably a ultra-base Wrangler.
“Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?”
Not in the market right now, but Stellantis needs to bring the rebadged Peugeots to the US and Canada yesterday.
Have you seen how gorgeous the new Peugeot 3008 is? That would be my choice. The 2008 looks cool, too!
The only Stellantis products that could interest me are not sold on this side of the Atlantic. So, Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat have models I’ve rented over the years (not been to the EU in over 10 years) that we wanted to bring back to the states at the end of our stays.
I bought a new Wrangler last April so obviously there are Stellantis products I am willing to pay money for. I would also consider a Grand Wagoneer, Ram 1500, or Ram 2500 (particularly the Power Wagon now that a diesel engine is available).
I’m not interested in most Stellantis products, but I can say the same thing about damn near every other manufacturer.
I thought the Jeep and RAM bars would be smaller and Dodge would be near infinity. The deals currently available on RAM trucks are pretty tempting. Dodge would have to hand me car keys and cash to drive any of their products off the lot, not reduce the price but actually give me the car and some cash.
There are a bunch of sweaty libertarian (unless you don’t want what they want) hate-mongers that tangle their sheets every night trying to make all the actual evil from Lord of the Rings manifest. This isn’t an Autopian thing at all and certainly not what MH is doing here, but it’s increasingly a dog-whistle adjacent aspect of a subculture increasingly fixated on surveillance and power, while literally telling people that they don’t deserve or least can’t be trusted with freedom (Peter Thiel).
Again, this is nothing to do with what Matt is saying here as an official perspective, just an observation that a lot of people in the real world are increasingly sympathetic to cartoonish evil and working to bring the means and ends of that evil into the real world, as if Sauron were misunderstood and he (whoever he is it is always a he) would be a just steward were he only the only one entrusted with such power.
But, no, not really picking up anything Stellantis is putting down at present, and if I were I’d be reluctant to be associated with a car clearly designed with being dangerous and antisocial in mind from the jump.
it’s really disturbing to think their marketing department views them as a “demographic” much the same as young families, retirees, etc. I’m sure they’re running focus groups to better understand their needs and buying preferences.
It’s curious because in Europe dealer inventory is usually not commented / public. I am sure it is a stat that they comment internally.
Also my impression is that Europeans tend to buy “to order” cars rather than ones off the dealer lots. Although of the 5 new cars I have owned, 4 were already dealer ordered so maybe I am contradicting myself…
TBQ I would daily an Ypsilon. Would love to have a Giulia Quadrifoglio and the 12cilindri is the only type of Ferrari I would consider owning.
I think there’s a direct line from the first sentence in each of your first two paragraphs so…
I drove a Fiat 500 electric last month at a Chrysler dealer. It was $34k msrp and sitting on the lot for 7 months. I told the sales guy after the test drive that $26k is about where I am at. Instead, he comes back with $52k (car at full msrp, tax, title, multiple warranties, glass etching, etc, etc). That was probably one of the dumbest dealerships i have ever experienced.
Was he offering you to buy 2 for $56k?
This is the real reason why they have so much unsold inventory. Dealers seem to be ignoring the “deal” part.
My local dealer has plenty of inventory, all of the pictures shot in what is clearly the dead of winter. Are they advertising big discounts? Nope, 1-3k off vehicles with MSRPs in the 45k-80k range. None of these vehicles deserved the bloated MSRPs they had in the first place.
I get that CJDR dealers have gotten screwed by a lack of models and options to bring people in, but I only have so much sympathy for people trying to sell crossovers for MSRP when they’ve been sitting on the lot since Christmas.
You bring up an excellent point here. I had to take my Fiat to get the recall to add caps to the headlight adjuster screws done, and the CJDR dealer had a crapton of inventory sitting on the lot, and didn’t seem interested in discounting any of it. Even the stuff that wasn’t moving, like the Daytona R/Ts, Grand Wagoneers, and whatnot. They’re the only dealers (excepting Toyota) that seem unwilling to negotiate to make a sale (and Toyota doesn’t seem to need to).
And I get that they’re not going to take a bath on every car they sell, but like, come on guys, actually try.
YMMV though, my local dealer years ago tried the “lost your trade in keys” trick. So the fact that they’re pulling this sort of nonsense is not below them.
For someone unfamiliar with it, what’s that trick about?
“Give us a few minutes to track down those keys. While you’re waiting why don’t you have a look around the showroom?” I believe some people have called the cops since they are keeping you against your will.
Oh my God…
It’s a tactic to buy the sales and finance people more time to talk you into a BS deal. It’s often followed up by the question “What can I do to get you into a car TODAY?” about 100 times.
Obviously I did not appreciate this tactic, demanded my keys be “found” and returned to me, lol. I was only 22 and this was probably the first time I had to stick up for myself against a slimy salesperson.
Incredible.
If I can make any excuses for their behavior, I was there to test drive a Jeep Liberty with the weird retractable canvas top. So I was probably labeled as a sucker the second I made that request.
I saw what I wanted to see, and saw “talk you into an *RS* deal” and was feeling pretty okay with that hypothetical.
Lol
When my Cherokee was in for service a couple years ago (company car, so not my money for the many visits it made) there were a bunch of Chargers and Challengers on the lot. A few of every flavor – base models, base v8s, scat packs, hellcats. Autos and manuals in all of the flavors. Tons of colors. Depending on the spec, these had a $5k to $30k dealer markup. All of the V8 manuals were at least $15k markups.
A year later, they still had tons of these on the lot. Still marked up above MSRP.
A year later, these cars have been discontinued, and they still had tons on the lot that they were trying to sell for sticker. On “new” 1 or 2 model year old cars. They finally started putting HUGE discounts on these to get them off the lot.
Morons.
When I leased my 500e, it was just before the tax credit was due to expire, and it’d been sitting on the dealer lot for almost a year, and they’d already cut $12K off the sticker. They were so excited to get it off their books, they didn’t even try any of that fuckery. $33/mo lease after the tax credit was applied.
Glass etching, lol…
Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?
The Citroën Ami or possibly the Peugeot 9X8
Ooooooor the Lancia Ypsilon Rally2 HF Integrale
No 9X8s are run by private teams, so maybe not for sale?
Also, Le Mans weekend! Yay! 😀
The wingless ones were sold
https://sportscar365.com/lemans/asian-lms/bbm-sport-planning-hypercar-effort-with-wingless-peugeot-9×8/
Interesting. I didn’t know that.
Psst! Move your arm a little, I’m copying your answers.
It’s the Gordie Howe Bridge Hat trick:
“something that rhymes with Sauron”
Zing!
I am not a reader or enjoyer of much fantasy (outside of the occasional Manowar or DIO song). I just googled does Sauron rhyme with moron?
Well, I already have the Chrysler van, and don’t expect to replace it with another, virtually identical Chrysler van (they’ve only managed to take it from nice looking to ugly).
Sooooo, no? I mean, I oscillate from segment to segment, and could see myself in anything from a Mini Cooper to a Nissan Frontier to a Honda Civic Hatchback Hybrid (if I were to leave behind #vanlife). Stellantis really doesn’t offer a whole lot when it comes to different segments. They have a handful of largish to behemoth SUVS and trucks, a segment I don’t care for. Then they have a gigantic coupe and supposed sedan but I’m not sure they like… really exist? Yet? Our area has literally zero Chargers available. From there they sell Wranglers, and the woefully uncompetitive Compass. No hatchbacks or wagons (nobody sells wagons) or actually obtainable sedans or obtainable coupes or interesting vehicles that fit between segments.
They really need these new models like… 5 years ago.
No.
Hi, it’s me, the one person who kind of likes the Grand Wagoneer.
But would you actually buy one over a Tahoe?
I don’t think Stellantis really considered just how much status/loyalty the Tahoe/Yukon have in certain parts of the country. This is not an easy segment to break into.
It would depend on the relative prices of each, but the GM V8 fiasco really shook me.
I’m waiting to see what happens with the new generation of V8s and GM SUVs.
Point taken. The appeal of the Tahoe to me (as it’s not my bag in general) was that the people I knew with them would buy one, and keep them for 20+ years.
The appeal of a large SUV for me is:
#1, 2, and 3 – My wife wants one.
#4 – I might be able to replace both the van and the truck, freeing up space for something else fun.
I probably prefer a GM all else equal as well. But if a GW is tens of thousands cheaper than a Yukon or Slade, the question has to at least be asked.
*Looks up Yukon inventory and pricing*
Holy mother of God, yeah I could see the appeal of a competitor in this space lol.
CJDR must be doing some sort of dealing of late because Wagoneers have been multiplying like rabbits here.
Huh. Your 1/2/3 are right in line with mine, and my #4 is remakably close – replace the van with something that can haul the family almost as good as our van did and a trailer WAY better than the van could.
We went Ford, though, because the GM products felt “cheap” on the inside and GM’s engine fiasco was a litte concerning.
But: we went used. Somebody else took $30K of depreciation in 2 years, and better them than me.
That 6.2L GM might blow up at any time, but that Stellantis engine WILL blow up at some point.
There are at least two of us that actually like the Grand Wagoneer. I looked at one while I was waiting for paperwork while buying my Wrangler a few months ago. I was really impressed by the interior. Overall, the Grand Wagoneer seems a bit nicer than a similarly-priced Tahoe. If I were in the market for a large SUV, my top choices would be the Suburban/Tahoe or Grand Wagoneer.
I generally prefer used vehicles, though, so that might favor the Grand Wagoneer given their lower resale values.
We had one as a loaner when our Pacifica hybrid was in the shop (shocking I know). Despite the window sticker saying it was an $85K car or whatever, we both felt the Pacifica had a nicer interior. We were not sad to give it back.
I had a nearly new Grand Wagoneer via uber pick me up at DFW a month ago. The luggage had to go through the rear passenger door because the hatch wouldn’t open. The driver would push the button, the hatch would make an unlatching noise, open an inch, then close again. Twice it opened an inch and didn’t close again. The second time that happened, I said maybe we should just pull it open. The driver wasn’t having any of that nonsense and pushed it shut. Five stars!