An alternative version of the headline for The Morning Dump was going to be “the one chart that has me worried about Stellantis,” but I may be to the acceptance part of my relationship with the company. Maybe this is who they are, and I’m the weirdo for thinking they should change.
Yes, I’m talking about inventory, and that starts with I, though it certainly doesn’t rhyme with pool. If you’re the CEO of Stellantis do you view this as a transitory phase or do you maybe think that you’ve got trouble? The same can probably said for Japanese automakers, who keep thinking that they’ll get out of this tariff mess without much further injury and keep finding themselves back under the Eye of Sauron, or the eye of something that rhymes with Sauron. Volkswagen seems fully aware of how this affects the company and is going to save billions of Euros by cutting jobs.
The great Canadian hockey player Gordie Howe did plenty in his life to merit a bridge being named after him between Canada and the United States. Here’s hoping it opens at some point!
Stellantis Brands Have Twice The National Average When It Comes To Inventory
I haven’t asked AI to write a TMD for me because writing TMD is something I love to do. If it did I’m sure it would say something like “I want to talk to you about my favorite chart.” I’m realizing I say this all the time, and that it covers a wide range of charts. Maybe I just love charts?
Anyway, I want to talk to you today about my favorite chart…
This comes via Cox Automotive and shows the amount of inventory for each brand and the nation as a whole, which it measures in Days’ Supply, which is to say how many days at the current selling rate it would take for all the inventory to be depleted. The national average is about 76 as of May, which is a healthy and patriotic number that has come to a reasonably healthy balance lately.
Generally, if you’re to the left of that line it means you’ve got a lot of demand (Honda), not a lot of supply (Audi), or some mix of both (Toyota and Lexus). People tend to claim that Toyota intentionally keeps the market squeezed by maintaining tight supply and that’s maybe true, but it seems to be working out for them. For small brands, the rollout of a new product or other production changes can shift this some. Generally, though, healthy is somewhere around the average.
Erin Keating provides a general view of what’s going on:
May inventory reached 2.89 million units, up from 2.86 million in April, 5.6% above January, and 13% higher than a year earlier. Even so, the broader pattern remains one of steady supply rather than renewed accumulation. That year-over-year increase also reflects a tougher comparison base: Spring 2025 inventory was depleted by a sales pace that ran above 17 million SAAR in March and April, draining dealer lots.
At the brand level, Nissan remains the clearest example of the broader thesis: Days’ supply fell to 82 in May, down from both April and a year earlier, largely because sales accelerated. The opposite pattern remains most visible at Stellantis, where Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep continued to post materially higher supply levels year over year as inventory growth outpaced demand. Together, those cases explain the market well: Tighter supply where sales are working, looser supply where sale volume is not clearing inventory fast enough.
Yeah, so, Stellantis. I’m excited for what the various Stellantis brands are going to be selling in the next few years, including a Jeep Scrambler, a new Dakota and Rampage, and some other cool stuff. Very little of what they’ve talked about is for sale now, though, and that’s a problem. While V8 Hemi-powered trucks and SUVs will definitely help find some lost customers, and the Jeep Cherokee fills a hole in the lineup, there’s still not enough there there.
The CDJR brands are still volume brands, and that means that the company needs to sell a lot of them to be profitable, and that means getting vehicles to dealers. Where the company has run into trouble in the past is that it ended up with a glut of inventory and then had to heavily discount that inventory with incentive spending. Based on the above, it seems like there are a lot more cars on lots than there are customers to buy them.
If you’re in the market for a vehicle and are willing to try a CDJR brand this might be a good time to get a deal. The brands are doing a big marketing push and it’s possible this will all correct itself. With new models coming, there’s probably a little bit of cupboard-stuffing so dealers don’t run short, though I sort of doubt that’s most of what we’re seeing.
It’s something I’m going to keep my eye on for the next few months.
Various Tariff And Regulation Changes Could Cost Japanese Automakers $40 Billion By Next Year
There are still plenty of tariffs in place, and they’re hitting even companies that make a ton of cars in the United States, like Honda and Toyota. Then there’s the whiplash of regulations around electrification and emissions. It’s tough, and every time Japanese automakers think the government has it figured out, The White House tweaks something, or threatens to tweak something, or threatens to not tweak something.
Currently, Automotive News thinks all of this is going to cost Japanese automakers about $40 billion by March of next year. So, the Chairman of Toyota may be happy wearing the President’s face on a shirt, but it’s the CEO who has to account for it:
Adjusting to the new realities is a work in progress, Toyota CEO Kenta Kon said last month in announcing the company’s financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31. Toyota’s North American unit slumped to a rare loss, causing parent company operating profit to fall for a third straight year.
“Our response to changes in the operating environment has been limited to measures that can be implemented in the short term, while progress on the business structure transformation that should be pursued from a mid- to long-term perspective remains only partway complete,” he said.
“We were not able to fully offset the impact of U.S. tariffs.”
And this all comes after automakers followed Biden era policies around electrification and then had to take huge write-downs to cover investments that haven’t panned out.
Volkswagen Will Cut 19,000 Jobs By The End Of The Year
I’ve covered Volkswagen’s issues here in detail, but the bottom line is that the company has way too much capacity relative to demand for its products, and that means a lot of jobs gone. According to Handelsblatt, that number will start at 19,000 jobs gone this year:
According to its boss, Oliver Blume, Volkswagen is making progress in its cost-cutting efforts. The workforce at Volkswagen AG in Germany, including the plants in Saxony and Osnabrück, will decrease by 19,000 by the end of the year, according to the text of the speech for next week’s annual general meeting, published on Thursday.
More than 28,000 exits have been contractually agreed upon by 2030. Factory costs at the German sites have been reduced by more than a fifth.
Volkswagen launched its first cost-cutting programs at the end of 2023 and reached an agreement with employees shortly before Christmas 2024 on the elimination of 35,000 jobs by 2030. According to the prepared text of his speech, Blume stated that the first financial effects of these measures are measurable. Sustainable cost savings of around one billion euros have already been achieved.
I hope our guy is spared.
Will The Gordie Howe Bridge Ever Open?
The Gordie Howe International Bridge–named for a Canadian hockey player who represented the Detroit Red Wings–is supposed to be an important link between neighbors who do a lot of business together. That it’s become a political footba… hockey puck is a little sad but not surprising. The bridge, downstream of Detroit’s Ambassador Bridge, is supposed to be open soon, and it’ll maybe happen, at some point.
Here’s The Detroit News on the sad back-and-forth from current Governor Gretchen Whitmer:
Later Thursday morning, Whitmer was asked if she could provide any additional information about why the ribbon-cutting was delayed. The second-term Democratic governor said she didn’t have any more information to share.
“I don’t have anything more to share,” Whitmer added. “I don’t.”
When asked if it was a surprise to her that the ribbon-cutting ceremony in Windsor was called off for Friday, Whitmer said yes and no.
Then, she walked away from a Detroit News reporter who was asking her about the bridge.
The article basically makes it clear that no one is willing to say what’s happening, when it’ll open, or why it isn’t open yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
If you did not get my reference earlier, it was to “Ya Got Trouble” from the classic The Music Man.
The Big Question
Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?
Top photo: DepositPhotos.com
My fiancee wants a used fiat 500e but the second gen ones still aren’t very cheap.
Matt, I just wanted to pass along my appreciation for your regular reporting of market trends that helps guide my car purchasing strategies. It’s pretty dry material, but you do a great job of punching it up with an Autopian flavor. Just wanted to make sure you know how much your hard work and insights are appreciated.
And I hope ‘our guy’ makes it through VW’s cuts too.
Last year I would have said sixpack charger. Then, you know, things happened. Now I’m looking at two to three year old accord hybrids
> Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?
A handful, but they’re all Europe-only 🙁
TBQ: Were I in the market a Pacifica hybrid would check a lot of boxes for me but only at 1/3 MSRP.
Chrysler has a huge inventory problem??
Oh, I know what will solve it… Releasing an 808 HP Charger! Done. All fixed!
Oh, wait, you mean those high horsepower editions of their cars only represent a small percent of their total lineup? You mean to tell me the bland 200 and 300 HP versions of their cars represents the meat-and-potatoes of their sales?! And no one is buying Chrysler because everyone thinks they have shit quality?!?
If only they took the development money wasted on the Demon or Jailbreak or Red-eye or SuperStock and instead hired more QA engineers or better tooling for their workers to tighten up tolerances and panel gaps. Maybe if they had invested in quality improvements, they’d actually be able to sell their high volume, but far less fun vehicles!
There are multiple new 2025 electric Dodge Chargers for sale by me with asking prices of $39K-$42K, about 2/3 of the MSRP ($59K-$65K). Not a lot of interest in 2 year old 2-door electric muscle cars, even with $20K+ cash on the hood. Who did Stellantis think they were going to sell these to?
….Soldiers on leave with money burning a hole in their pockets who have never had a personal finance class in their lives.
Not just soldiers, there was a buy here pay here lot right outside of every Air Force base I ever went to!
There are new 2023 Wagoneers still available in my area. One is a Grand Wagoneer with a $118k sticker price. Who was that supposed to be sold to?
The only Stellantis product I find interesting is the delayed series hybrid Ram 1500.
Just now, while reading the TBQ, I ran out of toilet paper.
Now, usually, when the paper roll is very thin, and about to run out, I like to pull the paper ribbon downwards quickly, so that it unrolls itself all the way to the floor. If I get it right, the unrolling stops just as the leading sheet hits the floor, since the trailing sheet, which is glued to the cardboard core, stops the speeding ribbon when there is paper left. It’s the perfect amount for the job.
Today was different, though, as for some reason, the last sheet was not glued to the core, and the complete ribbon ended up on the floor next to me. Neatly folded.
I find what just happened to me to be of more interest than the prospect of buying any of the Stellantis products currently for sale in the US.
(I’ll go wash my hands now.)
Comment of the century. Slow clap with head nod.
Thanks. I hope I was not too harsh.
I would consider buying a Fiat 500 to use as an ice racing car, but that’s about it. Not sure if that really counts.
Okay so this would be a Holy Grail chart?
The current huge drop in gas prices will help Stellantis sell some of those V-8s. Not to me but 74 cents a gallon drop is Lower than any time under Biden. I do think the rest of the world took advantage of our largesse by having higher tariffs against the US than we had so suck it up we want that money back.
A two door Wrangler Rubicon would be nice.
It really sucks that the Gordie Howe is stuck in the penalty box because of a bad call.
Well, the referee was bought off…
LOL! Yep.
Re; the question. No
I would gladly rent anything in the Stellantis portfolio, and would probably enjoy driving them. But own? No.
The Music Man and Gertrude Stein in one article. Terrific.
Is there any Stellantis vehicle you’d be interested in buying?
I like the looks of some Peugeot wagons, but of things actually sold in the US? Nah.
No. And even if I was titillated, I’d recall the insanely bad reliability.
Only one vehicle stranded me, and it was a brand new rental T&C full of my most important belongings on the way relocating from NY to FL.
That was the topper on the other rental Chryslers that threw codes or sounded alarms for no reason that we had rented. Never again.
Funny thing: I loved the first gen Neons we rented.
No but there is nothing in any manufacturers line I would buy for half of what they are selling for. Frankly I think we need a Good price/crack pipe price for new cars.
We’ll be test driving a Durango 392 as soon as one is available.
Naming infrastructure after sports people is stupid.
I happen to be flying from Belfast City to Madeira. They’d never do something like this in the EU.
You’d rather they name them after banks and businesses like they do for stadiums and amphitheaters?
I would rather they sell them to rich people and businesses to finance the upgrades needed around the country
I worry they would let the rot for the tax write off.
(both airports mentioned are named after former Manchester United No.7s)
LOL!
Naming infrastructure after people is stupid – period.
If not the whole airport, how about just part of it?
Like the “Sonny Bono Concourse” at the Palm Springs International Airport?
Did Sonny Bono build the Concourse? If not it shouldn’t have a name on it.
He was the Mayor of Palm Springs, then a Congressman until he died in a skiing accident. His major accomplishment was the Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act, also known as the “Mickey Mouse Protection Act” because it prevented Mickey Mouse from falling into the public domain for 20 years.
So he didn’t personally pay to build the concourse – so his name shouldn’t be on it.
I’ll repeat – governments naming buildings and infrastructure after people is stupid. All it does is cause problems.
I agree, and naming infrastructure projects after conservative politicians who fought tooth and nail against funding those same infrastructure projects is beyond stupid. The Lick observatory in California is named after the guy who actually put up the cash to build it, just like the Carnegie libraries.
Conservative, Liberal, Independent – doesn’t matter. Naming things after people causes problems. Both in deciding who to “honor” and what to do when it turns out they weren’t so honorable.
In my city we are deciding what do with Cesar Chavez boulevard since it turns out he was a rapist.
I live on the Eastside and would prefer returning it to the prior name, Brooklyn Avenue. That way Brooklyn Avenue Pizza would no longer be on Cesar Chavez! Also, anything called Jefferson is named after a guy that trafficked a 14 year old enslaved girl from the US to France and then impregnated her when she was 16. He would have fit right in on Little St. James island!
I’m more a fan of the numbered streets and avenues.
In the Portland metro Avenues run North / South and Streets run East / West. A Place is between two North / South Avenues on the grid. A Court is between two East / West streets on the grid. A Drive or Lane is a winding roads that doesn’t fit on the grid.
When I delivered for UPS it was relatively easy to know where the address was based on the street type.
And the Sacklers turned out to be drug dealers…
What should they name the buildings after instead? Should they use car-like naming conventions?
Airports should be named after the city they are located. Terminals should have number designation. Concourses a letter. Gates a number.
For example I recently flew out of of Gate 3 in E Concourse at the Portland International Airport.
So their marketing strategy of partnering up with “FREEDOM 250” and the idiocracy of some stupid MMA event on the decimated White House lawn isn’t paying off? Most decent, law-abiding citizens don’t want to be associated with the brand most driven by Jan. 6 domestic terrorists? As I’ve said before, the only clear solution is EVEN MORE TINY AMERICAN FLAGS ON EVERY CAR ON THE LOT.
Hey! Don’t forget about the DUI statistics!
Maybe if they offered a free case of
BudMillerBusch Light beer with every Ram purchase, and a 6-pack with every oil change.Ok, I’m tentatively back on board.
Fun fact: A Busch Light T-Shirt costs more than a 24 case from Wal Mart.
Can’t drink a t-shirt driving down the road like you can from a case of beer in a Dodge / Ram / Jeep
If you soak it in beer. 😀
https://youtu.be/pXr7cCGpgkk?si=I-iirsTXLwNgUT_m
(wow)
Wow I missed the meeting where everyone in the country came to your house and voted. Did you allow mail in ballets? Did you check IDs? As far as the lawn the NFL does far worse to fields and it takes less than a week to fix. A couple of fake wrestling matches in a ring will cause less damage than the annual Easter Egg Hunt. Can’t people quit being fake offended. It’s worse than LeBron flopping in every game.
A while back, a sales rep from my VW dealer called me to tell me they were offering incentives to existing customers. I said OK. Quote me a new base spec Golf with a manual transmission. I’ll pay full sticker and any import costs.
He said “don’t you want anything nicer than that?” I replied, oh, so you are selling Mazdas now?
I could arrange the base manual Golf thing if you are interested…
If you’re going to get involved I’m going to have to take a SEAT.
Great, Leons are fine machines. Avoid Cupras though it’s just more money for uglier designs on the same cars.
You are my new favorite person right after myself.
Ah, the Chrysler Sales Banks. I read about those before.
The only current stellantis vehicle I would want to buy would probably be the charger daytona. Mostly because it’s an EV that isn’t an SUV, and a hatchback. Not too many of those.
But it would be pretty far down on my list.
Oh, or maybe a Fiat 500e if I was able to get it for like, 10 grand. That’s it though.
As long as you keep making random musical theatre references in TMD, you’ve got my attention.
Separately, isn’t Chrysler + Dodge approximately 3 vehicles at this point? That makes their position in that chart even more embarrassing, no?
and since the chart specifies individual brands, we know there are enough new Pacificas to last us 129 days.
Unless you count their inventory.
My last Stellantis vehicle burned me pretty badly (and wasn’t a Viper with side exhaust), so no.
Burning people sounds like Jeep’s strategy.
The Camp Fire edition.
I think you mean the Pacific Palisades edition.
😉
No that’s an EV THING ACROSS THE WORLD