General Motors is the most EV-forward brand in America that isn’t an EV-only brand, which has earned them the second place spot behind Tesla… a distant second. GM is also in the unique position of offering a lot of gas-powered cars and trucks alongside its EVs, without the middle step of offering hybrids. At the moment, this seems not great, but maybe it’ll all work out?
The theme of The Morning Dump today will be the idea that everything will resolve itself in the end, however tortured a journey it might take to get there. It’s like the end of The Shawshank Redemption. Maybe you can crawl through 500 yards of crap and somehow end up clean on the other side.
It was announced today that the European Union might look to add Canada as an ‘associate member,’ whatever that means, which could work out for enthusiasts 25 years hence. Britain is in a unique position in that it’s no longer in the EU, which has given it access to Chinese cars, though the EU may have found a way to avoid turning the UK into a backdoor for those cars. Here in the United States, the last Stellantis CEO shifted truck production to Mexico to avoid paying the UAW, but the UAW might win the war.
The Decade Of The Hybrid Can’t Last Forever, Right?
The Corvette E-Ray is the only hybrid currently sold in the United States by General Motors. That’s odd. GM, as it often is, was early to develop hybrids and even beat everyone to the market with a hybrid truck. Investing early and heavily into electric cars, GM is now a brand that offers a lot of ultimately money-losing EVs next to a lot of big, profitable gas-powered trucks.
GM guessed the future wrong, but the future is now the present, so maybe it has the future future right? There’s a story from Reuters today about how dealers are cranky that GM doesn’t have hybrids on offer at its Chevy or Buick dealers, with quotes like this:
New Jersey GM dealer David Ferraez said dealers would be hesitant to add more EVs to their lots, because they have been a tough sell.
“I’m hoping that GM can adapt and come up with a way to build hybrids,” he said.
It’s going to be a while. The original position from GM was that hybrids were an interim solution, which is not how it’s going. Back in 2024, GM CEO Mary Barra said the company would look into having plugins by 2027, but even then she said hybrid technology was “not the end game because it’s not zero emission.” [Ed Note: As much as I’m a fan of Barra, this is one of the silliest things I’ve ever heard a CEO say. To refuse to offer what people want today because ultimately we’re going to EVs in the future is just bizarre logic. But who knows; maybe regulatory changes will mean the decision was only kinda silly. -DT]
Were the leadership able to predict the future, I’m sure GM would have changed some things, but it’s also still a profitable company in the face of tariffs, regulatory shifts, consumer shifts, and all the rest that’s come with our current political moment.
There’s another quote, from John Murphy (this guy), and it made me pause:
Automotive analyst John Murphy of Murphy Automotive Partners expects hybrid sales to hit 34% of U.S. sales in 2031. Still, he said it makes sense for GM to emphasize its highly profitable gas-only trucks and SUVs, while its EV lineup could position the company well if regulations tighten in coming years.
GM’s strategy “is not as clear a major mistake as I think some people believe,” Murphy said.
I think he might be right. Nothing happens in a straight line these days. I mean, look at this chart of hybrid sales:
Oh, wait, sorry, that’s the ESPN win probability chart from this weekend’s Longhorns game. How did that get in here? Well, it tells the same story. Sometimes, you can be sure of an outcome (as I was about UT defeating Ohio State), all the data can point the other way, and you can still be correct in the end.
Toyota is the leader in hybrids and, yet, it’s coming out with a lot of electric cars. Ford is working on the Fathom as the first offering in a trio of new EVs. Developing cars is expensive and GM clearly has a lead when it comes to electrification. Maybe that’ll pay off in a few years if there’s a new administration, a new focus on fuel consumption, and a general acceptance of the technology that matches the general acceptance of hybrids.
It’ll be fun to watch. Maybe as fun as the fourth quarter of that game.
Canada Might Become An ‘Associate Member’ Of The European Union
A small number of readers here get mad that I don’t get even madder about the bizarre current state of things. There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest is that there are plenty of places that do this very well and I don’t think we need another one. If you want to be upset, that’s your right. I’m often upset. What’s bad is when we have a lot of angry and ill-informed people, which is what I’m always hoping to fix.
The United States has started a tepid cold war with Canada. Maybe a mild war? This comes after years of intertwining our two markets, mostly to everyone’s benefit. The bet that President Trump has made is that Canada needs the US, but the US doesn’t need Canada. Time will tell on that front, but Canada isn’t wasting time finding new partners.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney went to France to pitch Canada as a place for investment, trying to align itself more with Europe than with the US. As NPR reports, it might be working:
Trump’s tariffs and repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state have pushed Canada to seek closer economic and security ties with Europe. Roughly 70% of Canadian exports go to the United States, and Carney has called for a “unique alliance” with the EU as Canada seeks to reduce that dependence.
“I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada being the first associate member of the EU,” von der Leyen told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during her annual State of the European Union address at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Carney nodded, rose from his seat, embraced von der Leyen and kissed her on both cheeks as lawmakers gave a standing ovation. He is due to address the Parliament on Thursday.
A Canadian official familiar with the discussions told The Associated Press last week that Ottawa was exploring ties with the EU that could stop just short of membership. The official said Canada would seek an arrangement allowing its citizens to live and work in Europe without visas as part of a broader strategic partnership.
One could picture a future where Canada shifts its allegiances to Europe as a counterweight to the US. From the perspective of automobiles, Ottawa is already trying to build a car market that doesn’t rely as heavily on imports from south of its border. This is complicated by the reliance on US safety and emissions standards.
So what’s the good news here? Where’s the bright light at the end of the sewer many people see us in given the policies coming out of Washington? There should just be one Asian-European-US-Canadian car standard. While there are differences between the experiences of European and American drivers, they’re not that far apart. A car that’s safe in Europe is fine here.
Perhaps pushing away our closest neighbor any ally will hasten a universal adoption of safety standards that’ll benefit enthusiasts, reduce the costs of localization, and make it easier to import cars from other markets. A boy can dream.
The EU Really Doesn’t Want The UK To Become A ‘Trojan Horse’ For Chinese Cars
The wide acceptance of Chinese cars and Chinese brands in the UK was a bit of a surprise to me when I last visited, but it shouldn’t have been. A weird outcome of Brexit is that Chinese manufacturers aren’t under the same tariff regime that they are when they try to sell cars in the rest of Europe.
Of course, the UK still relies heavily on the rest of Europe for automotive trade, which means that it needs to be friendly with its neighbors. The EU is pushing for its own protectionist trade policies, and it may make Britain fall in line, as Bloomberg reports:
Brussels may put pressure on Britain to follow its lead with levies to prevent an influx of Chinese vehicles into the EU via the UK, where they already account for a fifth of sales, said Massimiliano Messina, a Nissan executive who oversees the region including Europe.
“Europe cannot have a Trojan horse in the UK where Chinese are going to flood the market through the UK,” Messina told reporters on a call.
The European Commission has proposed “Made in EU” local-content rules that could restrict key subsidies to vehicles manufactured in the bloc and exclude the UK operations of automakers like Nissan. The government in London is seeking an arrangement that would prevent its exclusion from the program.
The back half of the 20th century was an attempt to link the world in order to decrease conflict and increase prosperity after years of fucking around and finding out what happens when you allow any single country or society to believe it has the right to dominate everyone else. The first quarter of the 21st century has been forgetting that lesson.
The UAW Might Have Lost The Battle But Won The War
Former Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares, pictured above, was apparently so unhappy after bargaining with the UAW that he moved a lot of truck production to Mexico. Stellantis wasn’t alone in doing this, and Tavares managed to pick fights with seemingly everyone, so the UAW wasn’t alone there, either.
With tariffs increasing on vehicles built elsewhere, the UAW might get the last laugh. According to Automotive News, heavy-duty Ram production could possibly be moved to Michigan:
The company in recent weeks has asked key suppliers to work up cost estimates for a production shift from Saltillo Truck assembly plant to Warren Truck assembly plant just north of Detroit, according to executives at two suppliers involved.
The automaker has not made any decisions about a production change, and the exploration is preliminary, said the executives, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. Stellantis routinely runs “trapline” studies with suppliers to assess the cost of proposed programs.
A Stellantis spokesperson said the company doesn’t comment on “speculation.”
Lol.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Here’s jazz singer Laufey doing her song “Snow White” from the Guggenheim. The acoustics are kinda great there, though I’m pretty sure Laufey could make this tune sound good in a wet cardboard box pitched on the side of FDR Drive.
The Big Question
Which automaker do you think will be the most surprising success in ten years?
Top photo: GM
Why is everyone so hesitant to make a pickup/SUV EREV? Seems that a 125 mile EV range, more than enough for most people, then an engine kicks in for a road trip would solve every issue. Btw, how GM and VW missed the hybrid train so badly is weird.
I suspect there’s packaging and/or weight issues. People kind of lost their shit over the land cruiser not having a flat loading surface from the back which was done for the hybrid batteries. SUVs already do not have great interior volume and weight numbers for how large they are, and a full EREV would make it worse. I’m certainly not saying it can’t be done… but I suspect it’s a bit of a challenge to hit the needed numbers.
Bingo. You have to package the engine, the gas tank, the emissions equipment, the exhaust system… package them in the vehicle and package them for crash tests. THEN you have to build an EV.
Ironically, maybe the simplest way to do it is with a rear engine… but I suspect the world’s foremost provider of cars like that isn’t interested.
Why do people keep wanting 125 mile EREVs. The battery is big enough at that point, that it basically eliminates any cost advantage it would have. I know commenters on here love EREVs (despite almost none being on the market), but this seems like the worst of both worlds. Oh, you get to pay for a relatively large battery (~50kWh), and you get to pay for a gas engine, and you get compromised packaging, but I guess it saves you from having to sit at a charger for 20 minutes half a dozen or so times a year?
If you need long range, just get a normal ICE or hybrid offering and you won’t have to carry around a large battery.
It saves you money and tons of weight. A Silverado EV that goes 100 miles on a charge with a gas range extender can be cheaper and WILL be way, way lighter. What’s more, it’ll make towing trips much, much faster.
More importantly, it allows for a single platform to be used for EVs (which are not selling) and hybrids (which are — though we don’t know how EREVs will do. Based on Scout preorders, I’m hopefully). It’s a great way to hedge bets.
Using pre-orders as proof is a joke.
Plus, it’ll be interesting what compromises will have to be made for the shared platform.
I wonder how the patent camping situation is driving manufacturer resistance to EREVs. Does someone hold the majority of patents for the logical EREV model?
Toyotas fee on the Prius drive train kind of kept everyone but Ford with their reciprocal patent from using the lowest maintenance most robust hybrid drivetrain.
GM decisions often seem driven by what patents they hold.
I think this makes more sense than the first point about cost savings, which feels like it needs a “citation needed” asterisk… especially for trucks and SUVs where this tech probably makes the most sense and you still need a chonky enough engine and cooling package that can handle J2807 (maybe they skirt this with some sort of fun strategy to ensure SOC when towing is maintained much higher so that there’s significant battery reserve for long grades). I think we’ll see them soon, but the selling point is going to be the easy fill-ups for road trips and trailering, but I can’t see any way these undercut something like a Silverado EV Extended Range on MSRP.
I’m having a hard time believing it will be cheaper or even lighter (at least significantly so). 100 mile range means roughly a 40kWh battery would still have to be in there compared to the 119kWh model. Can you really throw in an engine capable of charging the battery faster than the motor’s max output (510hp on base models) can drain it, plus the engine accessories and needed “infrastructure”, for less money and weight than the other 80kWh of battery that would normally be there on the lowest range Silverado EV? Let alone the packaging compromises that likely have to be made as well. Seems like a lot of complexity and packaging issues to tackle under a pretty strict constraint set.
The beauty of an EREV is that you dont have to meet the max HP output, just the average. And that average is tuned to a single point, usually 3600 RPM. So instead of a 510hp V8 and 10 speed trans, you need a little 3 cylinder connected to an alternator/generator. Something like 10 years ago a Ford engineer carried one of their 3 cylinder engine blocks in his carry on luggage as a publicity stunt. Hopefully that image can give you a good idea just how light that range extender really is.
If you go too small, you end up with the i3 Rex that then slows down going up hills cause the extender doesn’t produce enough juice. Yeah, you probably really don’t need the full 510hp, but you certainly need a lot more than a glorified motorcycle engine, especially if you expect it to produce enough juice to tow with.
Exactly, which is why the (delayed) RAM EREV still has a full size 3.6L V6 onboard.
“full size 3.6L V6” doesn’t exactly blow me away here. If I wanted base engine capabilities, I’d get a base Ram 1500. I’m not sure how Ram is ultimately going to have the EREV play out, but if you have a theoretical 150 miles of electric range, I can easily see that that shrinking to half that or less at highway speeds pulling a trailer. When you use up that juice, you’ll be essentially capped to more or less base engine performance and efficiency. Once the smallish battery is depleted, you’ll never be able to spend more than what the Pentastar can produce. Personally, I’d much rather just get a legit EV and always have performance and just stop for charging a bit more often.
Yeah, 100%. Small engine gives you the supposed “benefits” of the EREV concept, but you end up with severely diminished performance when the battery is depleted. Which isn’t good for towing, one of the main draws to EREVs in the first place.
Put a regular full engine in there and you’re now compromising the concept entirely.
The what, now? Maybe early i3’s had that issue? Have dailied a 2020 for a few years now; never experienced any falloff or lag on the RE engine.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BMWi3/comments/151ac8n/any_real_limit_to_running_rex/
There is an example. Not sure if it was resolved in later years, but it certainly makes since. In the very least, the engine needs to be capable of outputting slightly more energy than what the motor is asking for over some period of time. With a truck made for towing, that can end up being fairly significant.
You are going to have to prove that one. It isn’t as if that Silverado will have a two cylinder range extender in it. The range extender will have to produce as much energy as the electric motors can provide.
People are going to be super unsatisfied if they buy a erev and still have to stop to charge.
Basically… how big of a gas engine will allow GM to cut the battery in half AND still get the same range as the EV Silverado.
Seems people forget that in order to dump a bunch of power to motors, you still need a large pack to handle the power draw.
500hp=373kw.
For an EREV truck that can still tow/do truck things, you’re talking at least a 120kwh pack, which is the same size as the standard pack (119kwh), 7,400lb, Silverado EV.
It is the worst of both worlds!
Sort of.
More so it’s simply that current battery technology is just not good enough for actual truck use. Liquid fuels are just massively more energy dense stores for consistent high output, right now. Battery tech will get closer eventually, but it’s not there yet.
An EV/EREV truck will need an 800+ mile range to do 200-300 miles of towing, and for the EREV that also means at least 200mi or so of pure EV range (given current trajectory).
That’s a more than 4x energy density increase, which will also likely mean around 4x peak output for a given cell. Then EREVs could have a 120 kwh pack with the weight and size of a 30kwh today.
While I agree that 125 is probably high (my personal target would be 75mi), I’d like to see a full breakdown of how to calculate efficiency in different circumstances.
Here’s why I personally want one (have an EREV Terra reservation): I don’t want two cars, that seems wasteful in itself. My commute is 45mi round trip each day and that should be covered by EV only use. But then I need to be able to get up to the mountains for climbing, skiing, backpacking, etc and no amount of range or charging is ever going to fully satisfy those demand due to backcountry and elevation change. It’s the trips in the middle, the 50-150 mile range that I basically never do. So my napkin math makes me think it would work well for me, but maybe I’m wrong?
I just drove a hybrid last week. Toyota Camry.
Never again.
What irked you about it? My understanding is it’s the equivalent of a better ICE-powered version.
You’re not wrong. Our hybrid EV motor knocks nearly 2 whole seconds off the 0-60 from the standard ICE-only version, and the bulk of that extra oomph is obviously noticeable low down in the range what with the instant torque and bonus AWD, so few other cars I’ve driven feel as punchy off the line as our hybrid does, and that’s even before you get into the added firepower a bigger motor and battery gets you with a Plug-In hybrid
Plus it’s nice to sit at a stoplight or slow rolling in traffic and take at least some satisfaction from the idea that I’m not spewing hydrocarbons into the atmosphere for a little A/C and 10mph
Spent 15 minutes in the parking garage trying to figure out if the damn thing started or not. (The gages lighting up just means it’s on accessory mode to me.)
It sits so low that I kept “stomping the ground” every time I got out.
Hit my head three times the A Pilar getting in because it’s raked back so far.
Didn’t even bother with the infotainment screen and drive all week without any music. Did have a nice message telling me there was a problem with Android Auto.
The front overhang was so large that I had to worry about tall parking blocks
The windshield rake and chemical evap coming off the dash caused a nice haze on the windshield that combined with the low sun to hide two beautiful granite extrusions in a state park parking lot which I ran over so hard that everyone inside bounced like on a trampoline and people in the truck behind me head the slams with their windows up!
On top of all that, my lovely wife kept saying how much she hated the car because it’s too small. She owns a Jeep Renegade.
53mpg was not worth the hassle and discomfort. I’d rather have a truck any day.
So it’s entirely a you thing? Not to be a jerk, but it’s hard not to dismiss everything you’ve said when apparently big green “READY” in the bottom left of the cluster is too hard to read telling you the car is indeed on and ready to drive. Shame on Toyota for making people read!!!!!
At least the username is accurate lol
Hell yeah it is! 😉
This was the first hybrid I ever drove. Yes it’s me. I am not alone. There are many that believe they should have to relearn how to operate a car. Everyone at yhe family reunion were driving ICE vehicles. They came from different states.
Connecticut, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Florida.
One Republican, the rest Democrats (including me). That should tell you something.
Fair points across the board, but I think the only one related to it being electric-assist was your first one. Guess the Camry isn’t your cup of tea. You’ll get a lot of electric benefits on either of these 3 pick-up or the e-Torque Ram: CarAndDriver.om/rankings/best-pickup-trucks/hybrid
I appreciate it. Maybe again in another 20 years.
Funny how perception is illusion. The Rengade has 100.1 cubic feet of total passenger volume and the Camry has 99.9 cubic feet.
I guarantee you it’s a height thing.
Why? I own and like an older Camry hybrid and was very pleased with a new one I rented last year.
Please see my response to Waitwaitoknow
I am glad you enjoy it.
The Green READY light threw me on the test drive, now I expect it. The rest of your issues are with the Camry itself, not Hybrids in general. Most modern cars are pillboxes to see out of.
That reminds of the Camaro. The sightlines were horrible!
Because….. gas is close to $7 a gallon here in California. And 35-40MPG is just…. ok. Meanwhile the Equinox EV we have costs more than 50% less to charge. And there’s less shit to maintain.
I’m not putting down EV or PHEV. I rented an EV on for my work trip this week in Texas, had a few teething issues with charging (rentals don’t come with Tesla cable adaptors) and charger prices /speeds varied widely. I never came close to getting stuck, but did have to do some planning (and waiting). I could easily make one work back home with a home charger, but still would prefer a Hybrid for trips.
Yeah, if you aren’t in a easy to charge situation they’re a pain in the ass. I rented one in LA before we got the current car and that’s when I found out that the only practical chargers avail in public for it were level 2 chargers- which are slow. As far as having a 220 volt outlet at home its pretty easy. Just get home and it tops off.
Probably replace the partner’s old Corolla soon. An EV would be perfect for her, rarely drives more than 100 miles in a day. Probably 350 miles a week. Infrastructure in the Pittsburgh region is growing.
You can get used ones pretty cheap. The lease is up on our Equinox EV but there’s loads of cheap 2-3 year old EVs out there. We put 50,000 miles on the Equinox and it was fine. All I did in two years was fill up the window washer fluid.
I’m considering it, the Ionic’s seem nice too and other friends have had good luck with Hyundai/Kia Hybrids.
Read up about those because they’ve had some issues. Given that I know several people with Hyundai Kias with serious engine issues, seems like they have a quality control problem. We’ve had two GM products in the last 10 years and both were surprisingly…. VERY reliable.
My last true GM left a bad taste in my mouth (I consider my daughter’s old Vibe a Toyota). I love H/K as rentals but hesitate to own long term. My current fleet is all older Toyota.
Her old ’07 Corolla will get 32 mpg all day, every day asking for nothing until it rusts apart.
So this – the only viable charger in the township I was staying was a 56kw unit at the Hyundai dealer (my hotel had 6 Tesla chargers, but without an adaptor I was locked out). So I would plug in for 45 minutes or so (roughly one mile a minute of range) each evening and play on my phone. Leaving to fly out of Houston I stopped at Buc-ees 40 miles away and plugged in. By the time I had used the restroom, bought coffee and breakfast sandwiches I had added over 60 miles of range! Then, Avis wanted the car returned with 70% charge – so I had to hunt and wait for a charger to free up by IAH. Needlessly frustrating and added most of an hour to my easy drive to the airport.
T’was an F150 Lightning, ’cause Texas. Any other EV would have been more efficient for what I was doing. Actual, usable range: 150 miles at highway speed.
By comparison, my last trip there I had an Ecoboost Mustang convertible. I never added gas until I stopped at the Shell 1/2 mile from the rental car return.
Either you got a lemon friend or you’re being a hyperbolic diva.
We bought our first hybrid late 2024, clocked 30,000 miles so far, and just did a 3,000 mile roadtrip and frankly our Hybrid crossover was the vehicle for the job, full stop. Never once did we have to wait or deal with EV charging and not ONCE over that entire trip did we get less than 40mpg, in one stint we got 53mpg across an entire fuel tank!
I’m willing to bet that hybrid Camry of yours had the full driver aid suite too, which let me tell you if you didn’t experience it for yourself, is one of the nicest features ever put in a car if you find yourself in traffic. Automated lane tracing and stop-go ability made me the most relaxed I’ve ever been behind the wheel. Like I was sitting on my couch while trundling along at 30mph
Everything you love is everything I hate.
See my reply above
I’m somewhat confused. The majority of your gripes are due specifically to it being a low sedan and generally to all modern car design, very little of which had any relation to whether it was a hybrid or not.
The only criticism you had that actually related to it being a Hybrid is the lack of clarity regarding whether the vehicle was “On” or not, which seems like small potatoes all things considered, and it’s something easily adapted to!
Even after 30,000 miles I sometimes get it wrong and accidentally turn the vehicle off when it was already “Ready” to go, especially after remote-starts, but that’s been a mild and rare inconvenience costing me a couple seconds and a bit of pride at most. Doesn’t seem worth throwing out the baby over the dirty bathwater
Modern gas-only cars with shit UI and start/stop have that same problem. Less commonly, but more frustratingly because I never had this fucking issue with a goddamn key.
The Camry underlined the fact that I am a truck guy and not a car guy. The hybrid disaster is what got the ball rolling. Every time I started it I was disappointed.
That’s why I said never again.
In fact, after that experience I don’t even want those nostalgic cars from my teenage years.
If you enjoy them, on ya mate! You do you. Me? Never again.
If you think that’s bad, wait to you see me unload on GM for getting rid of the oil dip stick!
Short, safe for work version: Not buying a GM V8 truck.
What an asinine choice. They just want to be able to weld the hood shut at the factory.
Yep.
The big one is towing – I don’t think it’s a coincidence that EREV development is focusing on trucks.
If I tow something once a month, and drive empty the rest of the time, I’m saving serious money by driving those empty miles on electric. But the state of battery tech and charging doesn’t really allow for realistic long distance towing, even if someone is willing to wait at chargers.
I think it has more to due with space and expense than anything else. Trucks have large margins. Trucks are physically large. Both beneficial for an EREV. I think towing has less to do with it.
How much money do you spend on gas (or diesel) annually? It’s probably less savings than you think.
Plus, what’s the cost of the EREVs over traditional ICE offerings? Why does everyone that argue for EREVs just compare them to full EVs but completely ignore that when it comes to trucks, ICE is still the standard and thus the baseline for a comparison?
I’ll be anxious to do a thorough cost benefit if and when EREVs are commercially available. For now it’s all speculation.
What I will say is my truck gets 10-11 mpg average (including towing miles) right now. In a typical year that is $3000-4000 in gas. I accept that as the price for the capability I purchased, but I obviously don’t love it. So it would not take a great deal of savings per mile to be worth it over a lengthy ownership period. Assuming capability, reliability, etc are sorted/equivalent to what I have now.
People keep focusing on the fuel cost savings of EV/PHEV vs ICE but ignore the elephant of emissions. But nobody gives a shit about that if it costs them money. Sigh.
Money is the American deity, and we are conditioned to think about our own money in the now over all else – like the planet. Folks don’t remember the awful leaded gas smog of the ’70s.
I do, my eyes used to burn for a day after driving through Queens and The Bronx on family vacations. There was always a layer of brown air above I-95. Back in the 60’s and 70’s. Reminded of it whenever following an old pickup truck or car from that era, the gas vapor in their exhaust is choking.
The blind man, uable to perceive where the other 94% come from and feeling the elephant of emissions via the car he drives every day (uh… don’t think about that part too hard), exclaimed “emissions come from cars!”
https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector
There’s only a finite amount of resources to expend on emissions reduction, and people’s personal transportation is getting a disproportionately large share of the attention. How many heat pumps could be installed for every $60,000 electric car? How long would they last? How many more times per year could that EV battery be cycled in a grid attached application where it reduces solar curtailment?
“How many heat pumps could be installed for every $60,000 electric car?”
In my recent experience, about 4. Replaced mine last year for $14,000. Talking with others, that’s about what they cost around here, so I don’t feel like I overpaid, even though it hurt to shell out the cash.
I live in northern Maryland. My house uses heat pumps, and they’re fine 9 months of the year. The other 3ish months it’s too cold and they don’t keep up. When they don’t keep up, they switch over to the back-up heat, which in my case is generated by electrical resistance. My electric bill last february was $685 with the thermostat set at 67. My electric bill in the summer is generally around $200 with the thermostat set at 78. What this tells me is that heat pumps are not adequate in places where it gets cold, but they’re probably great for places where it’s warm in the winter.
You could have paid more for a heat pump that can do full heat output down to -30°F before turning on the backup resistance heat. This may have not made sense for your region’s weather because in addition to costing more, they are less efficient at heating during mild conditions. Every heat pump has a performance vs temperature chart that is unique to that specific model.
Yeah, I don’t think they sell those models here because we’re generally a pretty mild climate. What I had read was that heat pumps lose efficiency around 30 to 40 degrees F, so I wasn’t aware that those were available. I really wish I had less expensive options for backup heat, but natural gas isn’t available in my neighborhood and the house isn’t plumbed for propane.
I think that below zero performance is theoretical, nobody I know (in Maine) gets much heat from a minisplit when temps drop into single digits. It’s been great for AC during a couple hot spells this summer.
I just installed a decent one so I’ll know in a few months how low it can go.
There are roughly three different types sold in the US depending on climate. The kind for the far south can only heat to 37°F, but are most efficient at cooling. The middle of the country gets the kind that can heat down to ~7°F, while the north gets the cold climate models that are rated to -27°F. You are definitely at the northern edge of the middle zone. Efficiency is determined by the delta T between the outdoor unit and the indoor output temperature, because to work at colder temperatures the outdoor coil has to be colder then the surrounding air which requires more compression.
Have you considered a pellet stove? I think that the Thelin Parlour 3000 pellet stove looks sweet.
We have a Quadra Fire pellet stove in our family room. It keeps the family room comfortable, which is probably the most important. Can always throw more blankets on the bed. If it were just me, I’d turn the thermostat down to about 62, but the wife and especially the mother-in-law would not be happy (they’re not happy at 67).
That is cool! You could get a whole house fan or air filtration system (depending on allergies) to move some of the heat from the living room to the bedrooms.
Dude, of course a car is microscopic when talking about global emissions. I’m not an idiot, and I am well aware of the campaign to push the perceived blame onto individual consumers and not corporations. That’s not an en excuse to point to the airplanes and buy a RAM. Cleaning up tailpipe emissions leads to cleaner air for one immediate and local improvement even if it does nothing to reduce overall carbon output.
Though I am under no illusion that the collective We will do diddly squat to avert disaster, we are screwed.
It’s a good thing those things are tied together. Money is always the best lever to influence consumer choice.
Who cares how the consumer got to the “right” choice, right?
I track all my fuel usage. My Excursion averages out to $360/mo. in fuel and an average cost of $0.496/mi.
I work from home typically 3 days a week on average.
If I have to start doing 5 days/week in office, I already know the payment on an EV will cost less than my fuel, and the Excursion can sit and wait for it’s towing/long distance duties.
Especially since my electricity only costs between $0.15/kWh and $0.098/kWh at the times I’d be charging.
If I can get an EREV truck instead, I can sell the Excursion and remove one extra vehicle from the driveway, removing cost of insurance and maintenance for that vehicle. That’s worth the extra bit on payments.
Maybe the math just makes more sense here in Canada where the electricity is cheap, and the gas very much is not.
This is only possible with an EREV and not an ICE vehicle?
An EREV would decrease his commuting fuel costs, but an ICE vehicle wouldn’t.
You’re telling me no ICE vehicle gets better fuel economy than a 21+ year old Excursion?
The marginal gain in fuel efficiency isn’t enough to offset the payment on a new ICE vehicle, as I require towing capacity and seating for 4 tall people.
The fact that my commute in an EREV would cost me less for a month than one day in an ICE vehicle is the driving factor.
At $360 per month in fuel costs, you can’t possibly save enough to cover the monthly payment of an EREV. Even if we say it jumps up to $600 by going to a 5-day commute, you aren’t going to get an EREV for less than $600 per month unless we start talking crazy long loan term.
And at $600 per month, that’d be like 12,000 miles of driving, and even if it were all electric, that still is a hair under $500 at the best rate you provided.
An F150 Ecoboost has got to be more than a “marginal” gain in fuel efficiency.
1 – I’m not seeing how going from 2 days to 5 days would increase my fuel usage by less than 50%
2 – last time I checked, ICE vehicles aren’t free.
I had an ecoboost F150. I averaged 18-20mpg.
My Excursion does 12-15mpg.
So no, the savings on the ecoboost will barely make a dent in monthly run costs compared to commuting on electrons.
Plus, I can significantly lower my electricity costs thanks to gov’t grants on battery backups, solar, and Ultra Low Overnight energy plans.
But I doubt gas is gonna get cheaper.
I misread it and thought you currently commute 3-days. The math still doesn’t work. What are you figuring these EREV trucks are going to cost?
And the argument isn’t that ICE vehicles are free, it’s that in this cost argument it’s likely cheaper than the EREV.
Not if I still have to spend $400+ on fuel every month.
And since I’m in Canada, I’m hoping for a BYD Shark here. Which works out to about $60k in Canadian Pesos.
I think there’s also a big issue of buyer education…who’s gonna pay for a 1-minute Super Bowl ad to explain how EREV ownership works on a practical basis and then only manages to squeeze 15 seconds in for that manufacturer’s own vehicle(s) in that category?
We might know how an EREV works, but to the average buyer, it might sound complicated, or they just might not have any idea. Hell, apparently PHEVs aren’t being plugged in by a lot of owners, either.
Stupid is as stupid does. IMO ICE platforms have become way more more complicated than your average EV.
I mean, they certainly have more wear parts than an EV. But for day-to-day ownership, it’s not like the very basics of “fill with gas, change oil every so often,” and basic controls have substantially changed
That rumor was based on a UK survey of employees with company tax benefits that advantaged the company car to be a PHEV and not to incentivize home or public charging since the companies were set up to issue fuel cards/ gasoline/ diesel stipends. Not how owners actually use them when it’s their own money. Majority charge every day to minimize fuel usage
Okay, if you’re right about that survey, that makes sense, but do we have actual data somewhere on PHEV owners plugging in to support your second point?
I think it’s going to be a flood when they start coming out. They are the perfect solution.
Or maybe the marketing/cost of it all will make it a problem. Time will tell.
They are “a solution”. All drivetrains have plusses and minuses.
Personally I’m all in on BEVs. I don’t tow, and when I go on road trips 3-5 times a year I’m ok with spending some more time planning and stopping. It’s great (for me) but not perfect. Having to deal with a gas engine on a hybrid would be nicer on those road trips, but not as nice the rest of the year when I never have to visit a gas station, or deal with the standard maintenance a gas engine needs. Again, it would work but not perfect.
EREVs also work as transitional technology. A lot of people are going to discover how much range they actually use, and become accustomed to the EV lifestyle.
Then when it comes time for the next vehicle, they’re more likely to go full EV. Especially since range is improving every generation.
It works the other way too. I’m guessing we’re 10 years to forever away from having charging everywhere I’d need it to be BEV only (excepting a max pack GM truck for $100k I don’t have), as I have discovered over the last 5 years of owning a BEV.
Disagree on EREV (rebranded series hybrids) being the perfect solution. They cover niche use cases and vehicle categories and alleviate some range anxiety, but the day-to-day practicality and reality of still owning an ICE and the maintenance that entails outweighs most of the benefits.
Either you run a small engine balls out and deal with customers complaining about the noise and drone and how worried they are about their little engine screaming when they aren’t touching the gas, or you run a normal 2.0L I-4 at its peak alpha map efficiency and then have the weight of a full BESS and full-size ICE powertrain. With battery costs continuing their decline, outside of maybe some towing or small truck applications, they really don’t win in a lot of real-world driving applications.
They may win temporarily in real-world customer-want applications, but it would be a temporary win at best.
As an owner of a PHEV, I disagree. Running most of your miles on electric means the gas engine gets zero wear and tear. The maintenance you speak of is oil changes.
Which is something I don’t have to do in my EV. Or stop at gas stations. What does an EREV gain you over the PHEV at your usage? A few more electric miles? Needing to pee being the thing making you stop on trips instead of needing to fuel? There’s use cases for them, but they’re far from a perfect solution.
We can drive it to go skiing and hiking where it was literally impossible with my Lightning. We can drive it to Florida. Etc.
Edit: by impossible I mean the only charging available is Level 1 in a huge part of this area.
I thought the benefit would be fuel economy and wear and tear on the ICE because of more ideal usage in series vs. PHEV. Probably less stringent maintenance as a result, no?
It’s either an EREV or two vehicles for me. Believe it or not, there are still places you can’t go and get home from without significant detours for charging, like 30% travel time or more. I love my EV for daily driving, but it can’t be my only car, but an EREV would do it.
I drive a Honda Fit and still have to pee way more than fuel.
They looked at the Ford Lightning and GMC ev sales numbers and said, “Nope”.
I’m on a work trip this week and have a Lightning as my rental for the week in Texas. First experience with a full EV. The acceleration is mind blowing. It porpoises badly over road undulations, likely the massive weight. Charge infrastructure is spotty out here in the rural areas (I see a lot of Tesla chargers, but I cannot use them). I found a lone Chargepoint station in the town I am staying in, at a Hyundai dealer. Don’t get me started on having to load an App, etc… just to use it.
I’ve not experienced ‘range anxiety’ per se, but definitely pay closer attention than I do the fuel gauge on my hybrid.
Is that because the rental doesn’t have an adapter or did the Lightning never get Tesla compatibility at all?
Lightnings can charge at Superchargers with an adaptor.
Rental so no adaptor cable… in a part of the country where one is really essential.
I can absolutely see an EV in my normal life (not one as gargantuan as the Lightning) with a home charger.
Because as much as this website and the commenters here love EREVs, the market does not, and will not.
To an average consumer, there’s no difference between a plug-in hybrid and an EREV. The pitch is the same: “your daily commute on electric, gasoline as a backup for longer trips”. The nuances of how that actually works under the hood are irrelevant to people.
And the reality is, plug-ins have been on sale for a while and are neither eclipsing BEVs nor traditional hybrids. EREVs would come in to split that tiny part of the pie.
There are very niche applications (mostly towing) where EREVs can make some sense. But improvements in battery chemistry for BEVs are quickly narrowing that niche.
Ah, UCAP. One safety org to rule them all!
As everything will be EV in the future, it’ll be nice to be able to import things from overseas without any safety or emissions hurdles in the way, since that’s totally why the import ban was passed, right? Right?
It becomes incredibly difficult for car companies, who have much longer lead times than most other industries, to plan for a future that is constantly being changed on them by a pedo-in-chief who is purposefully creating chaos and uncertainty.
If you look at an alternative history where pedo-in-chief did not win the election, then I think the push to an EV future would probably have continued. In that future, GM’s early push into electrifying their lineup would have proved to be especially fruitful.
That fact that their long-term plans were pulled out from under them and yet they still remain profitable, even factoring tariffs and inflation, is a testament to how good their gasoline line-up is. If there is a renewed push for EVs in 2 years, GM can say they have the broadest electrified lineup in the industry – from $30k small crossovers, to fulls-size pickups, to luxury vehicles and almost everything in between. They will probably be reluctant to expand that lineup now until EV sales pick up more, but they mostly are just missing EV sedans, but that is a slower selling segment anyway.
This anti-EV government sentiment is a blip, and it isn’t even working out as intended because the war in Iran is pushing fuel prices higher and higher.
All of these companies that re-pivoted back to hybrids, which are a dying technology, are going to be very sorry when political sanity is restored and consumers pivot to EVs in droves. GM is right to ignore the temporary insanity in favor of the inevitable future.
I still don’t understand why this site is so anti-EV. GM is still profitable and has a great lineup of EVs. So literally, they’re doing everything right. Well, except for deleting CarPlay. A lot of people won’t buy GM’s EVs for that very reason.
For me, the jury is still out on whether or not GM and Ford are going to be able to field EVs that can match the Chinese. The Chinese are coming and don’t delude yourself with these tariffs and import restrictions imposed by political leadership. Economics always wins in the end. One additional point, the market leaders of these Chinese EVs, like Tesla, are not traditional car makers. They are technology companies. An EV is basically a computer with an electric motor, a large battery pack and 4 wheels. Think on that. Cheers.
Saab
Hybrids are definitely something the manufacturers need to be doing, but until they get the cost of vehicles down to where the average price isn’t hovering around $50k, it’ll be a big pill for consumers to swallow otherwise and could even be a flop because many people aren’t going to take on a larger payment if it’s just going to wipe out what they might save on gas. Course the manufacturers know they have many Americans over the barrel given our society is so car centric.
The first manufacturer that makes a fun hybrid sedan/couple that isn’t requiring me to pay as much as my house payment and I’ll throw them my money.
“The Big Question:
Which automaker do you think will be the most surprising success in ten years?”
Slate.
Small electric pickups, mini-SUVs, and even small electric sedans will be all over the place in 10 years.
Just like the ’80s and early ’90s, but battery-powered. Maybe even with an optional range-extender in 10 years.
But by then, gas will be $16.00 a gallon, so filling a ten-gallon tank will cost $160. Maybe nobody will have much use for a gasoline-powered range-extender by then.
Which automaker do you think will be the most surprising success in ten years?
Remember just a few years ago when so many were joking around that Toyota got it all wrong by sticking to ICE vehicles and expanding their hybrid lineup, while only dipping their toe into the water on full EV’s, and was going to be bankrupt by the end of the decade?
Yeah, I didn’t laugh at Toyota then, all of them aren’t laughing anymore now, and it won’t be a surprise to me when the same holds true in the next decade.
And GM frequently gets it right in concept, fails on initial rollout, develops it, then pulls the plug on it right before they perfect it and everyone else catches on.
It sure would be nice for GM to get it right for once, and it’s me not laughing in 10 years.
Anybody wanna take that bet?
For a US-centric perspective, I agree Toyota looks clairvoyant at this point.
But the reality is, they’re bleeding market share to the Chinese in all emerging markets they used to dominate. Fully ignoring BEVs (and offering highly uncompetitive EVs) won’t do Toyota any good in the long term.
You are correct, I was mostly considering the US market, and not globally.
I don’t think ANY legacy manufacturer has a way to compete with the Chinese, especially in the global markets you mention. Not now, maybe not ever, without some monumental changes, not to mention the changes that the unstable minefield of modern commerce and geopolitics could bring.
I do believe if any of the legacy carmakers can, that Toyota will be among the forefront of it (even if their conservative, methodical approach takes some time). But not too much time…
It’ll definitely be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Toyota has 3 pretty darn competitive BEVs on US dealer lots right now with a 4th coming in the next few months when the Highlander launches. That covers everything from the sub compact to midsize CUV segments. The bZ4x was priced completely wrong when it launched, but if you actually judge it on its capability as a car, it was pretty darn good. It was in no way worth the $40-50k sticker, but a lot of people got them new for around $25k or less. I got a laughably low lease price on mine and it was fantastic at eating up those donkey miles back and forth to work, driving to track meets 80-100 miles away, weekend trips, etc. I used public charging maybe 12 times in the 18 months I had it. It wasn’t an exciting car, but it was a good car. I ordered a bZ Woodland to replace it (because more power, more cargo space, more range) when my uncle took over the bZ4x as his commuter. He’s 3 weeks into ownership of it and seems really happy with it.
As far as the Chinese… they’re eating everyone’s lunch because they have the lowest cost cars. That isn’t a BEV/HEV/ICE argument. That’s a country that said they were going to build a powerhouse car industry and put money behind it.
Agreed.
TBQ:I’m either going to be really right or really wrong and there’s no in between
SLATE
How I can be wrong. Logic. Slate is a new company with unknown support. They will make vehicles with issues at first. They aren’t great deals unless you are a complete Luddite with technology. The Ford Fathom is a MUCH better deal from an established company with a giant dealer network by the time you get what normal people want from a vehicle (e.g. more than 2 seats, more color than grey, a radio, power windows, a radio, etc.
Why I think I am right. Who ever said that the world is Logical? I think that the Slate has the potential to become a cheap, cheerful vehicle that is easy to make your own. It’s a White Lego block that can be turned into whatever and I suspect that people will do that.
Sure, they might spend a LOT more on a Slate making it their own than to get a Fantom that has the same stuff, maybe better that isn’t installed by the owner. But where’s the fun in that?
I just have a feeling it will become a fad. If it does, then it will sell well and Slate will make most of their profit off of accessories.
Quoting for emphasis. One of the big motivations behind free trade agreements was to tie countries together in a way that would make them less inclined to shoot at each other. Whatever your financial philosophy might be, the absence of World War III (so far) suggests that it worked.
TBQ: I’m deliberately misinterpreting the question, but I’m going to go with Tesla. With the insanity of their CEO, the stagnation in their product line, the terrible product decisions they keep making, increasing competition from both traditional and new Chinese automakers, and the widespread negativity about the brand in the very demographics they need to target, I’ll be surprised if they’re still considered a successful car company in 10 years.
TBQ: Aston Martin. They’ll either be well and truly bankrupt in a decade or just a dormant sub-brand within Geely or Tata, but we’ll look back at this era of Aston as perhaps the greatest in their history and marvel at how that Stroll guy could spend so much money making so many cool cars for so long. Pyrrhic success is still success.
If we’re talking the best in their history, it’s hard to ignore the DB4/5 era and the concurrent 1959 sports car victories.
Agreed, and thus the qualifying “perhaps.” The clock’s still ticking and both the base cars and one-offs being produced are pretty impressive. That’s part of what makes today’s Astons such a satisfying story… it echoes. Reviews of those late ‘50s/early ‘60s production cars makes me think “Wow, there was hardly anything else like them at the time.”
The most surprising probably Vinfast. They are spunky and have the whole you want a cheap car or motorcycle now pickup but don’t like China buy from Vinfast. Vietnam is the new China just without the global politics. As long as they get their 9 dash line they are fine.
GM and the Germans refusal to go into hybrids is going to be an issue. I wouldn’t be surprised if they Chinese get control of the German oems though fire sales. Just make erevs, GM knows how they can do better now. GM can listen to the public and China they did with the bolt. That might become a sore point. I think they burned so many bridges and that’s why they haven’t sold out of them. So many people like it and then go but I’m never buying another GM product. Ford is in a similar boat. People are done with the devil they know. Rather risk a new brand that could be good and cheaper because they know they are going to get screwed over by big brands. That seems to be happening everywhere except with a very brand focused consumer that exits less and less.
I’ve seen a surprising number of Vinfasts in our home town near Clearwater and in our travels.
Lots of Viet expats got to Vietnam ride in them and or drive them are impressed and buy them when they get pack . With Vietnam tourism growing how it has been. I bet that will help too. The truck is out now between the wild and the vf3 I think they could be big in the US if the get pricing right. They need to get their act together and build the NC factory.
“It was announced today that the European Union might look to add Canada as an ‘associate member,’ whatever that means”
I assume it’s the nation state equivalent of an associate member of the Wal-Mart team. We used to call them “colonies” or sometimes “buffer states”.
I feel like GM’s product cycles have a few Abe Simpson moments:
“I used to be with it, but then they changed what it was. Now what I’m with isn’t it, and what’s it seems weird and scary to me, and it’ll happen to you.” -Abe
TBQ: Cadillac is going to spin off its Blackwing sedans into a seperate entity, “Blackwing by Cadillac” that’s going to specialize in manual V8s, and will bring back wagons and coupes including a new LMGT3/GTD entry to go alongside their Hypercar/GTP cars for WEC/IMSA.
RE: TBQ
American Motors.
C’mon, AMC. I believe in you.
I’m all in on Saab, but I could be persuaded to go AMC as long as it is owned by Renault
If I can’t have AMC, I’d be dead chuffed with SAAB. I learned to drive in a SAAB, Opel GT and Chevy Citation.
I’d be thrilled to get front row at a venue like that. Generational talent right there.
Re: GM – I do find it strange that for as many EVs as they have, they effectively have zero hybrids. My wife and I are in the market for a new (probably) three row crossover, and while I probably wouldn’t have considered a GM product anyways, not having any hybrid options took them completely off the table from the get-go. I see no reason why every passenger vehicle being sold today isn’t a hybrid, we should’ve been there a decade ago.
Mr. McGuire: “I just want to say one word to you. Just one word.”
Benjamin: “Yes, sir.”
Mr. McGuire: “Are you listening?”
Benjamin: “Yes, I am.”
Mr. McGuire: “Telo.”
Benjamin: “Exactly how do you mean?”
Mr. McGuire: “There’s a great future in Telo. Think about it. Will you think about it?”
Aptera
I want to believe in Aptera. I really, really do. But I feel like Charlie Brown running up to the football.
Great metaphor! A+
“To refuse to offer what people want today because ultimately we’re going to EVs in the future is just bizarre logic.” < This, 100%
That being said, I don’t agree with John Murphy. Here in the US, higher gas prices–which may be here for a while–haven’t led to more EV sales. They’ve led to more hybrid sales, where GM doesn’t have a player on the field. No wonder dealers are annoyed.
Even GM admits that demand for their moneymakers is contracting…
GM Sees Truck Demand ‘Shrinking’ Due To High Gas Prices, Just In Time For Its New V8
Re: Canada – Here in Maine the lobstermen are a big and noisy constituency with a fairly large chunk of the economy. With climate change the lobsters are moving further into Canadian fisheries. If relations sour with Canada the fishing industry here is screwed.
(Of course if you ask any of them there’s no explanation for the warming trend, it’s just Earth’s mystery.)
“$40 for a small lobster roll, I know what I have”
I don’t live in the Maritimes anymore, but I’m sure we’d consider accepting Maine as an Associate Member province. 🙂
Please oh please let us join Canada